Re: March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

by **algae888** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:27 pm

Mt holly has put out a snow map. 2 to 4 inches North four to six inches south. Both mt holly and upton not buying the dry solutions from todays 12z runs..it was a confusing discussion but it had to do with the sampling from the shortwave in the northwest. if anyone can make sense of their discussion please post it

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:29 pm

algae good to hear, NWS is the authority with the wx so I hope they are right.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:35 pm

NAm inching closer to in range and still has a foot plus even up into NYC and southern HV.

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:36 pm

NAM'd.... keeping hope alive or just trolling us

March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion - Page 15 Post-12663-1394829340_thumb

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:37 pm

it came somewhat south though, so i don't like that.

by WOLVES1 Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:40 pm

The nam is the only model that's been consistent other then one run showing it going north.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:40 pm

pdubz i like the NAM its in range for the beginning part so its looking better and better, but if the other models do not do much tonight or tomorrow ill be concerned.

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:pdubz i like the NAM its in range for the beginning part so its looking better and better, but if the other models do not do much tonight or tomorrow ill be concerned.

yeah things need to work out perfectly

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:43 pm

Oh crap and the NAM has the second low coming up the shore, ice!

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:47 pm

actually 12z to 18z is virtually unchanged except 12-14 moved south a bit.

by **dad4twoboys** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:55 pm

Lee Goldberg says...
"90% chance of weather Monday"

by Abba701 Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:57 pm

Look at what this forecast says for Monday next week.

http://myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=24384&zip_code=11213&metric=false

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:57 pm

haha dad4 lol, did he really say that?

by **SNOW MAN** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:00 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:All kidding aside I still don't believe, or accept this one is dead yet. I can't accept that we will be screwed this many times in such a short time period, it doesn't seem mathematically probable, but I have nothing to base it on other than that.

Of course the evil thread is dead, and that doesn't hurt either.

Face it CP all bad things come in three's. We had 2 misses so far this month and you know what that means "IT'S OVER JOHNNY" !!! Believe me I hate to see this season end this way, but I have a feeling that we will not be seeing anymore snow until next season. HOW DEPRESSING.

Refuse to lose!!

but just in case send me your snow therapists number.

I'll see if I can get a group rate.

psssst, you know what I'm doing right. I'm trying the old r-----e p--------y approach.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:14 pm

yes snowman great lol

by **amugs** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:18 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:All kidding aside I still don't believe, or accept this one is dead yet. I can't accept that we will be screwed this many times in such a short time period, it doesn't seem mathematically probable, but I have nothing to base it on other than that.

Of course the evil thread is dead, and that doesn't hurt either.

Face it CP all bad things come in three's. We had 2 misses so far this month and you know what that means "IT'S OVER JOHNNY" !!! Believe me I hate to see this season end this way, but I have a feeling that we will not be seeing anymore snow until next season. HOW DEPRESSING.

Refuse to lose!!

but just in case send me your snow therapists number.

I'll see if I can get a group rate.

psssst, you know what I'm doing right. I'm trying the old r-----e p--------y approach.

Okay let's keep the faith here guys and if she fails us as the old Italians believe that things happen in three's like Snow said. But for just a but we wait to get some sampling of the energy by tonight 0z runs by tomorrow's 6Z runs which puts us within the 48 hours range.

If I may the KSW may need the shrink as well if this goes poof! That a bottle of Single Barrel Vault #58 to help ease my suffering!

by **amugs** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:21 pm

GFS comes out in about 15 minutes - "Garbage" Forecast System is what I have deemed this model lately Embarassed

by **Quietace** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:22 pm

The 18z NAM really only has slight differences. The Vort pushing onshore is a tad weaker through out the run which allows for a slightly more potent and longer lasting ridge, slightly. The Vort in the southern US is actually weaker and more strung out than 12z. And the PV is maybe a tad east, but that's being picky. And of course the SLP after the 1st wave looks to try to come up the coast. But that doesn't matter at this point. All in all, The NAM still delivers potent moisture/QPF and cold temperatures for the 1st wave. 18z GFS is next, then the 0z runs tonight. We'll see what happens.

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:22 pm

We say not to get our hopes up with one set of runs when things trend our way, so I am not giving up yet either just because of the 12z's trending negatively. Listen dont get your hopes up here folks but this discussion from Upton offers some hope.

THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US. DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS ONE.

WHILE THE 00Z/14 GEFS..NAEFS AND EC ENS MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. A COMPARISON OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5 FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PAC NW CAN BE MADE AS WELL AND DETERMINATION IF THESE NRN TRACK SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE OR NOT. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TO THE N WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR NEEDED FOR A SNOW EVENT...BUT THIS TOO COULD BECOME QUESTIONABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THE SPREAD IN THE ENS MEANS COMES TO FRUITION.

AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:28 pm

They give us hope and dam it let's get this one - positive vibes and thoughts out to our universe to bring us one last hurrah!!! We need to see SROC do a snow angel near naked for Pete's sake.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:43 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:All kidding aside I still don't believe, or accept this one is dead yet. I can't accept that we will be screwed this many times in such a short time period, it doesn't seem mathematically probable, but I have nothing to base it on other than that.

Of course the evil thread is dead, and that doesn't hurt either.

Face it CP all bad things come in three's. We had 2 misses so far this month and you know what that means "IT'S OVER JOHNNY" !!! Believe me I hate to see this season end this way, but I have a feeling that we will not be seeing anymore snow until next season. HOW DEPRESSING.

Refuse to lose!!

but just in case send me your snow therapists number.

I'll see if I can get a group rate.

You've done all you can soldier, if we lose this one it won't be for lack of innovative battle strategy.
psssst, you know what I'm doing right. I'm trying the old r-----e p--------y approach.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:44 pm

GFS looks really far south. Grrrrrr

by **dad4twoboys** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:46 pm

https://www.facebook.com/ABC7NY/photos/a.10150159356494091.298144.31160214090/10152036224394091/?type=1&theater

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:47 pm

I'll be back on later this evening see you all around. keep hope alive (for those of you who know techno thats a crystal method song.

by **SNOW MAN** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:50 pm

Mug's, I think if this storm pans out all the members on this board should have a simultaneous toast to Old Man Winter and of course our KSW king

If not, I think all the members should drink a bottle of their favorite adult beverage and drink themselves into a SUPER STOOPER to try and relieve their disappointment. drunken

What da think ?

by **aiannone** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:54 pm

GFS is south still. Models will have better sampling for tonight's 0z runs and even better for 12z runs so we are still in the game.

by **aiannone** Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:56 pm

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