March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

GFS is south still. Models will have better sampling for tonight's 0z runs and even better for 12z runs so we are still in the game.

GFS is completely lost 00z will be interesting

Everyone hold UP.

The 18z GFS is a very different solution compared to its 12z run. This shows us it has no clue what the hell is going on yet.

SoulSingMG wrote:Everyone hold UP.

The 18z GFS is a very different solution compared to its 12z run. This shows us it has no clue what the hell is going on yet.

Yep H5 improved at least

Lol I am about to stick a fork in this, definitely will early tomorrow if these trends continue. The NAM is out to lunch and doing it's usual catch up to other guidance. Soul, you need to look at trends which have been south and suppressed. Seeing a very similar outcome to 3/3 with maybe T-1 for NYC and most of NJ with a couple inches at the immediate southern parts, DC moderate snowstorm possible.

pdubz wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Everyone hold UP.

The 18z GFS is a very different solution compared to its 12z run. This shows us it has no clue what the hell is going on yet.

Yep H5 improved at least

It improved alot. Much less energy strung out and lost in the phase and IMO looking at it it should have been cleaner interaction then what it showed when over texas. But im still extremely weary about that collapsing ridge screwing the interaction and shearing apart our energy. Its a really really potent vort diving right into the western US.

Accuwx and HM onboard earlier today, definite KOD.

excerpt from Upton

THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A
LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN
TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY
SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER
INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS
NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS.

pdubz wrote:excerpt from Upton

THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A
LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN
TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY
SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER
INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS
NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS.

Old referring to last nights 0z

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

pdubz wrote:excerpt from Upton

THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A
LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN
TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY
SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER
INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS
NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS.

Old referring to last nights 0z

No that is the current discussion

seems like rayno, maue, bastardi and most other mets are calling this a no go for NYC, is that true?

Mets2695 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

pdubz wrote:excerpt from Upton

THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A
LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN
TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY
SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER
INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS
NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS.

Old referring to last nights 0z

No that is the current discussion

Yes but they're referring to last night's 0z runs, not any of today's.

jmanley32 wrote:seems like rayno, maue, bastardi and most other mets are calling this a no go for NYC, is that true?

we have to wait until 00z tonight and 12z

Or is there still possible it moves north or the NAM is close to right?

k pdubz so its not completely off table yet although it worries me that only one model holds on if it to drops to the others I think we are done for. But then again I have seen models all trend one way and at the last minute all trend the other way. Its all a game with the computers.

jmanley32 wrote:Or is there still possible it moves north or the NAM is close to right?

Jman nobody knows the answer to that question. It is possible it moves north because the PV is further north well into eastern Canada, the PV is not what's suppressing this, it's the fact the western ridge is breaking down due to a storm that drops down from Canada and strengthens in the Great Plains causing the SW to NE flow to turn more W to E and the energy is sheared out and just slides to the east with a weak system. Also with our storm, the NAM was showing a phase but is now getting along with the GFS and EURO in the idea of holding the western energy back and shearing out the main energy that will effect us. The western system closes off and strengthens but just slides to the east as well due to aforementioned bad flow. Now if the plains low can hang back a bit maybe the ridge can remain long enough for the storm to progress further to the north, but it's just grasping at straws. It's hard to bet against trends as we move ever and ever closer to the storm. In conclusion, I can see how it bumps back north a bit, but also can see how it remains or trends further south. Right now I'm not feeling as good as yesterday because consensus began to break down on a larger event here. Fear the mid range CMC was out to lunch as usual. Remember, it's not the PV or the HP, the HP north of NYS is only around 1028mb, PDII had a 1040 HP in the same spot yet precip had no problem surging north and burying the MA and the NE. It's that damn low in the plains which acts as a kicker of sorts.

i feel the same way as NJ iv learned the hard way of self hyping a storm. 3/3/14 never forget   

pdubz wrote:i feel the same way as NJ iv learned the hard way of self hyping a storm. 3/3/14 never forget   

This is the 2 week anniversary of that disaster and this one looks to follow suit. Biggest kick in the pants is the GFS shows Dover, DE getting hit by both systems early next week and over 1" of QPF all snow for them, yet up here nothing. This is so screwed up when looking at climo but guess it don't mean squat in the grand scheme of things.

Ok NJ, Raynos video is less than encouraging. Latest one.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/no-rest-for-the-weary-another-storm-on-the-way/2430839568001

Off topic but when does the NWS start sending out predictions for severe season and Hurricane season?

At this point, All i want is 2 inches. Just one last hurrah so i can enjoy the peaceful ambiance of snow falling from the skies and the sight of everything dressed in white. No better moment than during a storm when it seems like a different world than what we usuallly see in the middle of a snow fall. One more. Just a small one. Then, we can get ready for hurricane season and be done we the dumb weather channel named storms. That is all i ask.

PS. Yes...I am drinking.  

SNOW MAN wrote:  Mug's, I think if this storm pans out all the members on this board should have a simultaneous toast to Old Man Winter and of course our KSW    If not, I think all the members should drink a bottle of their favorite adult beverage and drink themselves into a SUPER STOOPER to try and relieve their disappointment.    What da think ?

I totally agree Snow - by the 12Z tomorrow we will know  

Those westerner s are the ones screwing us that dam ridge has to stay up or else.....like I said yesterday that this is a must so we need this to happen it can't collapse.

BTW the models have shown eradicated consistency if you will so with that I will check back tomorrow morning to see if we can get a finale to this winter season! 

Ciao fellow Weenie's

Mugs

We should do a toast on Wednesday night at 9PM to officially end our winter season and to the great, no fabulous job everyone did on this board this winter season. We have uno mas!

I'm hearing the NAM has caved but I'm @ work. Can anyone verify this?

I am hearing that also