Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[jmanley32]

Yes, that seems the plan, the CMC is doing it again and stalling a low just south of here for days 993mb at 8-10 day range. Won't fall for this again, I give kudos to those who saw right through the CMC. Rain totals still dont look that impressive except on CMC and that seems to be enhanced by that supposed (not happening) stalled low around 20-21st.

[algae888]

Yes, that seems the plan, the CMC is doing it again and stalling a low just south of here for days 993mb at 8-10 day range.  Won't fall for this again,  I give kudos to those who saw right through the CMC.  Rain totals still dont look that impressive except on CMC and that seems to be enhanced by that supposed (not happening) stalled low around 20-21st.

CMC originally had the low for the 16th. it has lost that now has one later like you stated. I think its safe to say that we will not have a big storm later this week.

[jmanley32]

Or at all, current GFS has all the heavy rain to our west.

[Frank_Wx]

I will be releasing my 2014 Summer Outlook Memorial Weekend (maybe next weekend). I usually do a winter "in review" blog to see how the winter outlook worked out but I had limited time this year. Overall, I thought my winter outlook did ok. Especially with the temperatures. Precip, not so much.

[Frank_Wx]

Be prepared for days of showery, possibly stormy, and cooler than normal weather by the end of this week into possibly early next week. With blocking developing overhead, there is a strong chance a mid level trough cuts off over the Northeast and develops training precipitation. There is a legitimate chance of showers and storms every day this week ahead of the cold front.

[jmanley32]

Cool, love some good t-storms, frank euro and cmc showing some pretty high winds with frontal passage, euro shows at least wind advisory level winds, but for only a 6-12 hr period so would this classify for a watch or too short a duration if any?

[jmanley32]

Also Frank by looking at rain totals they do not look that immpressive, but training usually causes alot of rain, might the models not be picking up on this and if so what might we expect for highest rain totals. Accuwx says flooding Fri-Fri night for Yonkers, NY.

[Frank_Wx]

Memorial weekend and Day isn't looking that great if you're venturing to the beach. As of now, GFS is suggesting temps ranging from upper 60's to low 70's with the threat of clouds and pop up showers all weekend due to an upper level disturbance sitting and spinning in northern New England. Let's see if future model runs can get that disturbance out of here sooner.

[oldtimer]

Hey Frank I am hearing a weak EL Nino for the summer might keep temps a little cooler. I look forward to your Memorial Day long range

[Analog96]

Memorial weekend and Day isn't looking that great if you're venturing to the beach. As of now, GFS is suggesting temps ranging from upper 60's to low 70's with the threat of clouds and pop up showers all weekend due to an upper level disturbance sitting and spinning in northern New England. Let's see if future model runs can get that disturbance out of here sooner.

Friday could be a washout.
Saturday depends on wind direction- some modeling is showing onshore flow, which would limit temps, but also convection.
Sunday and Monday should be sunny and warm, especially Monday.

[Frank_Wx]

Memorial weekend and Day isn't looking that great if you're venturing to the beach. As of now, GFS is suggesting temps ranging from upper 60's to low 70's with the threat of clouds and pop up showers all weekend due to an upper level disturbance sitting and spinning in northern New England. Let's see if future model runs can get that disturbance out of here sooner.

Friday could be a washout.
Saturday depends on wind direction- some modeling is showing onshore flow, which would limit temps, but also convection.
Sunday and Monday should be sunny and warm, especially Monday.

This entire weekend there will be a threat for scattered showers and storms. It's a pretty unstable atmosphere. Monday does look like the best day, partly cloudy and temps around 80 degrees. But after Monday, it's back to unsettled weather and rather cooler than normal temps by the middle of next week.

[jmanley32]

Okayyy, this came outta nowhere 00z showing a low forming off just south of LI and dumping yet another big rainstorm. Were earlier models showing this because I do not think they were.

[jmanley32]

Meant to show map first then rainfall totals.



Is this the kind of thing you were talking about Frank?  Or is it something else? It strengthens to 995mb but after it passes here.

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like first ten days or so of June will feature temps around average. Amazing how the EPO is still raging negative since what seems like the end of last fall.

[Frank_Wx]

Early next week, specifically Sunday through Tuesday, it could get quite toasty with temps approaching 90.

[jmanley32]

Frank did anyone else notice on the 12z Euro and i believe either the 12z or 00z last night showing a low trying to develop off the carolinas?  Is this a possible hybrid situation like you had mentioned?  It's only thing on Euro that has caught my eye in a while.  Not terribly low pressures at all but it is 9 days out (and Euro tends to play conservative) but sure has alot of moisture with it.

[jmanley32]

[Frank_Wx]

The Pacific is turning into a hot tub. Looking at the Equatorial Pacific, you can see El Niño is clearly coming along. Global heat content is probably surging right now. I originally forecasted this summer to experience temps near normal, but now I wouldn't be surprised to see the season end above normal. I'm still expecting precip to be above normal, though.

[jmanley32]

Since its not a active storm I figured I would post the eye bugger of a 12z GFS run, thats a bit disconcerting if by some highly numerical number the GFS was actuially right, but as stated its been doing this alot. so Entertainment purposes only. I'm trying not to be concerned but the GEFS have had a senario like this and even closer to coast for quite a few runs now, I was wondering why it took it into the GULF. Personally I believe that the GFS is not completely wrong on a storm, frank did say about hybrid storms which this looks like thats what it is. So I am keeping a eye on it nonetheless until it disappears, not losing sleep not worried but man that is some storm if it happened and just a tad further west, we do NOT need that!

[jmanley32]

Also noting on Franks post above that the temps off our coast althought not WARM are much warmer than normal. Could have something to do with it.

[algae888]

Since its not a active storm I figured I would post the eye bugger of a 12z GFS run, thats a bit disconcerting if by some highly numerical number the GFS was actuially right, but as stated its been doing this alot. so Entertainment purposes only.  I'm trying not to be concerned but the GEFS have had a senario like this and even closer to coast for quite a few runs now, I was wondering why it took it into the GULF. Personally I  believe that the GFS is not completely wrong on a storm, frank did say about hybrid storms which this looks like thats what it is.  So I am keeping a eye on it nonetheless until it disappears, not losing sleep not worried but man that is some storm if it happened and just a tad further west, we do NOT need that!

jman its never going to disappear, the gfs will have a storm like this in the 10 to 15 day range the whole summer. if you see a storm on the gfs under 168hrs (one week or less) then give it some attention otherwise it's useless to post!

[jmanley32]

true i should posted the first development of it at 144 hrs. Its progged to develop tuesday. which isnt too far off. If the GFS shows that all summer I will be very surprised.

[algae888]

true i should posted the first development of it at 144 hrs.  Its progged to develop tuesday. which isnt too far off.  If the GFS shows that all summer I will be very surprised.

jman I meant to say that in the 10 to 15 day range either the 00z,6z, 12z or18z gfs will show a tropical development somewhere in the gulf or atlantic very often. most of the time they will not develop or when they develop it will be in a totally different area. the gfs has had a tropical system since mid may almost daily and nothing has happened yet. to me the models are useless outside of 7 days. we saw enough of that this winter!

[algae888]

plus as frank and others have said before when predicting the weather that we need to know what the signals(el nino) are saying. this year the signals are saying NO to an active hurricane season.

[algae888]

there should be no tropical development for the rest of june in the western atlantic or gom. gfs still trying to develop something between hrs 276 and 324. which it has been showing in that time frame for the better part of a month. looks like we can disregard the long range gfs for now.

[Dunnzoo]

I need the signals showing rain for next Monday to go away...my daughter is graduating high school and I would like to have it outdoors....

[Math23x7]

"nO cOLd Or SnoW thROugh jUNE 30tH"

Anybody remember that guy? I sure don't miss him xD

Anyway, I think that after this brief period of humidity midweek, it will cool back down to seasonal to below seasonal temperatures for quite some time. I wonder if we will even hit 90 by the end of June. The last time the first 90 degree day was after June 30th was 1985.

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