Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[jmanley32]

Frank here is a idea I was thinking about. What if the GFS is right in the fact that a system does exist in the carribbean but doesn't develop however moves up to off the SE coast and THEN does what the Euro is showing. That sounds weird but it makes some sort of sense to me. The recent GFS runs where it goes across FL SE and then NE is highly unlikely. The GFS may be right with development off SE coast up to here, and yeah the trough is the main thing that will determine this. If the Euro moves up 12 hrs or so at 12z and continues to do so I am going to go with the Euro and check the GFS to see if it changes at all. Will be interesting. The GFS has been really bad this year we really have had no premiere model this year.

[devsman]

The GFS is all over the place. Now it has it hitting Texas after it was being pushed out to sea this morning. Can't believe that is our go to U.S. model.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS is all over the place. Now it has it hitting Texas after it was being pushed out to sea this morning. Can't believe that is our go to U.S. model.

Awful. I can't wait for the upgrade. Actually, they tested the "new" GFS with a simulation of Hurricane Sandy and it showed the same track as the EURO. So definitely an improved model come 2015

[jmanley32]

Thats good to hear on the upgrade, the CMC joined the GFS in developing this sistem up to being SW of FL. From there it seems to be a crapshoot where it goes, IF it even develops. NHC has not said anything or marked anything and the models show genesis within the 5 day so I think we better off watching what goes on with the Euro and the storm shown at 240 and if that keeps up.

[jmanley32]

So we do have model consensus through 240 that a tropical system is going to develop and move up a little west of FL with the GFS, Chinese model (not sure about this one its new), CMC, NAV-GEM, and I think I may have seen a little something on Euro but Euro favors this into EPAC, so 4 models is not terrible but again I still think this may be being developed prematurely and may be what develops on the Euro in the last run around 228-240.

[jmanley32]

Wow that was the shortest lived storm on the Euro, totally gone not even a slight sign of anything. I don't think any of the models can be trusted anymore it seems.

[jmanley32]

Just for entertainment (or maybe not) look at the last GEFS run (12z too shows similar on #20), 112.5 kt winds right over the entire area. That would be devastating, no I am not expecting that to happen but man thats a crazy graphic! The GEFS has been consistent with a 70-100kt storm though heading up the coast on many of its ensembles.

[SNOW MAN]

I'm a little concerned about this possible storm coming up next week. The reason being, I really go all out with my Halloween decorations and when I heard about Sandy coming I was a little reluctant to take it all down and put it away before she hit. Boy was I glad I listened to the forecast from the people on this board and put everything away. I'm just wondering is this possible storm going to have high winds with tons of rain ? I know it probably won't be as bad as Sandy (hopefully), but I don't want my decorations being blown away and wrecked. I would appreciate any thoughts on this event. Thanks.

[jmanley32]

Snow as of now the ensembles totally changed, very few now show anything up here in that time frame on the GFS. But who knows the models have been a mess. The guys here have been saying the conditions promote coastals around the 16th but right now no models is showing a hit. That supposed tropical entitiy is now shown going into the texas coast which is suspect because this is NOT a normal track this time of year. And if this were to develop it would have to be very soon for the GFS to be right, and I do not see that happeneing being that the NHC has not shown anything on their potential graphic. Tonight into tomorrow as Frank has posted winds could gust to as high as 35 mph, Euro shows 45.8 kts as highest on 00z from last night but i guess the other guys feel thats overdone. We will see what happens for both events.

[jmanley32]

There is however a large area of deep convection north of panama, I guess this is what the GFS sees developing but it does not have any spin just a strung out blob of moisture

[jmanley32]

The area is impressive but no organization with it. However it IS there.

[amugs]

I'm a little concerned about this possible storm coming up next week. The reason being, I really go all out with my Halloween decorations and when I heard about Sandy coming I was a little reluctant to take it all down and put it away before she hit. Boy was I glad I listened to the forecast from the people on this board and put everything away. I'm just wondering is this possible storm going to have high winds with tons of rain ? I know it probably won't be as bad as Sandy (hopefully), but I don't want my decorations being blown away and wrecked. I would appreciate any thoughts on this event. Thanks.

Snow,

to early to call on this one as are most storms this far out we have to wait until the end of this week to see where things are at to get a better gauge of this - not what you wanted to hear I am sure but the patterns seems to be active as we move towards the middle of the month time frame.

[Frank_Wx]

Next week is looking very warm on the models. Possibly near 80 again.

[sroc4]

Guys there are some HUGE differences in the 500mb pattern from one operational model to the next regarding next week Starting after about the Sunday 12z time frame.  I mean I am talking HUGE differences in positioning and intensity of a trough in the Northern GOA which in turn leads to big differences in the ridge intensity along the West coast, and in turn how amplified and where the trough axis is centered over the CONUS between Monday through Wednesday of next week.  

When you read the tea leaves here one would see that the fact that Frank hasn't mentioned anything about this means it prob is whole lot of nothing.  HOWEVER, the fact that Frank has also NOT mentioned anything about this could ALSO mean that there is some potential for something to develop but since the models have such drastically different upper level differences that there is no way one can lean in any direction this far out.  

If you look at the GFS Ensembles as well as the Euro Ensembles there is also large differences in "weather" (see what I did there) or not LP develops off the Yukatan coast or not in the 5-7 day and if its drawn north by the impending trough mentioned above.  There are also differences seen in development or non development, and how close, or how far from the SE coast LP in the SW Atlantic develops if it develops at all.  Its all going to play a role.  

In my experience when you have such huge differences in both the operational models as well as the ensembles (Euro vs GFS) a pattern change on a fairly broad scale is trying to happen and models are having a hard time locking onto what that is because there are so many large scale upper level features that need to evolve.  

My point here is we wait and watch.  Watching individual operational model runs is great and helpful, but over the next few days look to the ensembles.  See if one model starts to trend towards the other.  Look at the number of individual members showing a particular soln, and we see if a trend where more mmebers within an individual model move towards a specific soln.   Just look at the differences between the GFS Ensemble members and Euro members. This is all for th time frame of Tuesday 14th 12z 
GFS:
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Euro Members 2-50
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If you believe the GFS Ens then about 2/3rds of the members have a system develop of the SE Yukatan.  If you believe the Euro Ens then maybe 6 of 50 have a LP develop in that area.  The Euro members have some that develop a LP center over the BOC instead but less than half total have a LP develop in this general area at all.

[algae888]

stevie d believes el-nino will not be a driving factor in the 500mb pattern for this winter. says models have done poor job of forecasting it. he thinks sst in northern pac and stratospheric warming will be key factors and if el-nino develops it will enhance the pattern. so does this mean we can expect a warmer and less active winter?

[algae888]

some things to note that I think are favorable to us snow weenies. 1 the pna has been mostly positive over the last few months and with sst above normal in the pac n/w we should see that continue. 2 October now looks like it will be above normal in precip. this is a big change from mid july until early this month when we were very dry. so hopefully active weather continues for nov and dec and beyond. any thoughts?

[Frank_Wx]

stevie d believes el-nino will not be a driving factor in the 500mb pattern for this winter. says models have done poor job of forecasting it. he thinks sst in northern pac and stratospheric warming will be key factors and if el-nino develops it will enhance the pattern. so does this mean we can expect a warmer and less active winter?

I have been monitoring the SST's in the ENSO region on a weekly basis. They are not making the progress I expected them too, and as of now, the diagnostic an statistical models are busting badly. ENSO region 3.4 as of last week was at +0.3, though region 1+2 is up to +1.0. However, region 3.4 is most important. I stll think it is too early. I want the rest of October and 1st half of November to finish out before concluding El Nino will not be a driving factor this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

Getting back to the warmth next week, I expressed concern in this when I did an October outlook in the other thread. With storm phasing and cutting off in the Midwest, this is going to allow the southeast ridge to amplify and bring our temp. departures 15-20 degrees above normal, at times.

[jmanley32]

Wow, pulling out the winter cloths putting them back etc etc. lol, have we lost the chance of any kind of coastal threat next week?

[HectorO]

I Suddenly don't have a good feeling about this winter.....

[HectorO]

Getting back to the warmth next week, I expressed concern in this when I did an October outlook in the other thread. With storm phasing and cutting off in the Midwest, this is going to allow the southeast ridge to amplify and bring our temp. departures 15-20 degrees above normal, at times.

I'll wait and see on that I think 20 above normal is a bit much. That would mean 80 for some people and as of right now I'm not seeing anything like that. I'm still seeing 60s next week. How late are you talking?

[jmanley32]

OK, OMG this is laughable at the least with its terrible track record but OMG if this happened its Sandy part 2 (and only a week difference), look at the size of that thing, I think the GFS is high on angel dust!

[jmanley32]

On a closer note this system looks pretty intense and is 180 hrs out, and note the tropical cycloe that developed, I wonder if that storm coming off the EC doesnt come as fast if that system comes closer.

[Quietace]

OK, OMG this is laughable at the least with its terrible track record but OMG if this happened its Sandy part 2 (and only a week difference), look at the size of that thing, I think the GFS is high on angel dust!

384 hours out. Fantasy storm and should be left there like so many others.

[Frank_Wx]

Getting back to the warmth next week, I expressed concern in this when I did an October outlook in the other thread. With storm phasing and cutting off in the Midwest, this is going to allow the southeast ridge to amplify and bring our temp. departures 15-20 degrees above normal, at times.

I'll wait and see on that I think 20 above normal is a bit much. That would mean 80 for some people and as of right now I'm not seeing anything like that. I'm still seeing 60s next week. How late are you talking?

It depends on which models 500 mb pattern depiction is correct. GFS is progressive and keeps temps average, while the EURO is cutting storms off and raising heights over our area near 588dm.

[jmanley32]

I am aware Quietace, i do not think a Sandy 2 would be anybodys fantasy. Anythoughts on the second post which is much closer in time?

[HectorO]

I am aware Quietace, i do not think a Sandy 2 would be anybodys fantasy.  Anythoughts on the second post which is much closer in time?

I agree, but there are people with sick fantasies lol.

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