Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[Dunnzoo]

I need the signals showing rain for next Monday to go away...my daughter is graduating high school and I would like to have it outdoors....

[Math23x7]

"nO cOLd Or SnoW thROugh jUNE 30tH"

Anybody remember that guy? I sure don't miss him xD

Anyway, I think that after this brief period of humidity midweek, it will cool back down to seasonal to below seasonal temperatures for quite some time. I wonder if we will even hit 90 by the end of June. The last time the first 90 degree day was after June 30th was 1985.

[Frank_Wx]

"nO cOLd Or SnoW thROugh jUNE 30tH"

Anybody remember that guy? I sure don't miss him xD

Anyway, I think that after this brief period of humidity midweek, it will cool back down to seasonal to below seasonal temperatures for quite some time.  I wonder if we will even hit 90 by the end of June.  The last time the first 90 degree day was after June 30th was 1985.

I would ban it immediately if it ever came here

[Frank_Wx]

It appears like today begins a stretch of the northeast being under mainly a zonal flow with temps right around, or slightly above, average all the way through next weekend. With High Pressure in control, it will not rain as much either besides Wednesday of next week when a front is expected to move by.

[nutleyblizzard]

This board is dead. No severe storms, nothing to track in the tropics. Don't despair… only 164 days till meteorological winter kicks in! 

[Dunnzoo]

This board is dead. No severe storms, nothing to track in the tropics. Don't despair… only 164 days till meteorological winter kicks in! 

Thankfully it has been quiet, good for all the graduations...I have been watching the weather in the midwest, all those tornadoes and the twin twisters, amazing stuff..will be watching the weather for the west coast soon, heading out there for vacation on July 4th.....

spectacular day today...love it!

[Snow88]

Euro has sizzling temps for the 4th of July week

[Dunnzoo]

saw another post on FB about heat then, but GFS surface temps didn't look all that bad, warmer, yes, but I don't think it's going to be a heat wave.....btw, leaving on the 4th for the west coast and there it was going to be warmer too!

[Frank_Wx]

The week of the 29th has the potential to bring us our first heat wave of the season. It is still too early to know for sure, but fireworks on Independence Day could be going off under very hot and humid conditions.

GFS:



GGEM:



Positive height potential for the entire eastern U.S. and eastern Canada with interlocking ridges.

[jmanley32]

Euro shows a developing cyclone off carolinas around 28-30th, this would be right in line with the farmers almanac which states a TS threat at this time. 8 days down the road is a ways but not as far some, and its the Euro, not the GFS or CMC.

[jmanley32]

CMC also has something quite similar, cold core for being so far north? Seems to originate from south though.

[algae888]

CMC also has something quite similar, cold core for being so far north?  Seems to originate from south though.  

.from NWs disco..NOTING THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO WANT
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED COLD-CORE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. euro also wants to develop a cold-core low. nothing remotely tropical with this system. and btw since when do we give any credibility to the farmer's almanac? they try to predict weather a year in advance which besides being nearly impossible is grossly irresponsible.

[jmanley32]

They have been right before, but no major credibility was more of a notation than a belief. Didn't see that from NHC. Figured it would be cold core, hard to tell though just looking at the maps, but its gone now only was there one run. What is wednesday night looking like? I am hearing big storms some places and others not so much.

[Frank_Wx]

So much for that.

The heat is no longer looking like a story next week. Instead, temperatures mainly around average to possibly below average by the 4th of July as a low level, broad trough works it's way into the area.



We'll see if these models flip again back to the heat idea, but looking less likely.

[Frank_Wx]

As winds turn to the south Sunday, warmer weather is going to invade the area through Wednesday with temps near 90 degrees. The highest threat for rain will be on Wednesday and Thursday, especially Thursday with possible thunderstorms.

The 4th of July looks sunny right now- and not as warm- with temps possibly in the low 80's.

[Frank_Wx]

Welcome to the second month of Meteorological summer! Most stations around the NYC Metro area say June ended slightly above average. Anywhere from +0.5-1.00. Jersey coast actually saw their departures from normal finish below average. Not an overly warm month, a pleasant one in fact. 


July may actually feature much of the same. I'm sure we may see our first heat wave, but if we do, it is not coming until mid to end of July. The first few days of this month will feature some rainy conditions along with a broadened trough. Then we kind of go into a zonal pattern beginning Sunday and that looks to continue into the foreseeable future. You can see that below from the Day 10 maps. 





That's also confirmed by the GGEM (as well as the GFS). It is keeping the bulk of the ridging in the western US and the east in a mainly up and down pattern. Some days above normal, others below, which results in a mainly average departure from normal similar to June. 

[Frank_Wx]

And for those curious, EL Niño is still progressing. There's a good chance the end of this summer and the fall will feature El Niño conditions.

[devsman]

And for those curious, EL Niño is still progressing. There's a good chance the end of this summer and the fall will feature El Niño conditions.

Meaning what? I'm not sure what happens with an el Nino.

[Frank_Wx]

With a super typhoon expected to curve the western Pacific, this is likely to lead to cooler than normal conditions in the eastern US by mid month. July is likely to finish anywhere from normal to perhaps slightly below normal.

[Frank_Wx]

And for those curious, EL Niño is still progressing. There's a good chance the end of this summer and the fall will feature El Niño conditions.

Meaning what? I'm not sure what happens with an el Nino.

Temperatures around normal to slightly below with above average precipitation.

[Frank_Wx]

Mid-month update:

Earlier this month I gave a July outlook for the first half. Reviewing that, it went as expected with the core of the above normal temp departures in the west U.S., colder then normal in the central U.S., and average to slightly above in the northeast U.S.

Our area seems to be under a general weakness, whereas we're constantly experiencing varying degrees of temp departures each week.

According to the GEFS, this type of pattern is likely to continue for the second half of the month. Core of the heat remains in the west, and we are mainly up and down. I do think precipitation will be on the increase though. More of a steadier type of rain, not these convective like days.

[algae888]

from nws
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

looking like we will be going into a nice stretch of dry weather. today's 18z gfs has no measurable precip through 384hrs. nice!!

[Frank_Wx]

Rex Block showing up on the models for next week. This looks legit and will likely protect us from any tropical storms as well.

[algae888]

after a hot day tomorrow with a few t/stoms and mod temps with scattered t/storms for the weekend we could have another 4-5 day spell of pleasant weather heading into august.  

[Frank_Wx]

Rex Block showing up on the models for next week. This looks legit and will likely protect us from any tropical storms as well.

Fast forward a few days later, and guess what, nothing has changed. Next week looks mighty cool with an elongated trough settling over the area due to all the positive heights anomalies over Canada 

[nutleyblizzard]

Frank its been a very unusual summer thus far with all the troughs in the eastern US. The bermuda high is no where to be found. I know its a long way off, but let's hope this pattern holds up this upcoming winter. Can you imagine the potential with a Rex Block along with a weak El Nino! Should be an interesting next several months to see how everything unfolds.

[amugs]

    Frank its been a very unusual summer thus far with all the troughs in the eastern US. The bermuda high is no where to be found. I know its a long way off, but let's hope this pattern holds up this upcoming winter. Can you imagine the potential with a Rex Block along with a weak El Nino! Should be an interesting next several months to see how everything unfolds.

From your post to God's ears as they say! Nuts this would be epic if this were to occur in late Jan to mid feb timeframe that is the snowiest period of our winter here, historically speaking.

Also, looks to be a wet period as well the first week or two in Aug we look to be near normal temps doing wonders for my electric bill not using the a/c!! 

[Sponsored content]