Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[algae888]

interest read radz. signs are there for an active winter season. that warm pool  of water over the northwest pacific looks really good for us and should lead to a +pna for periods this winter. btw I have to get me a nice snow weenie cap. any suggestions or should I see if mugs is selling any?

[algae888]

frank if the cfs came in 1-2* colder than normal than I would be concerned.lol how many times (this summer for instance) has long range forecasts been wrong. we are still in the same pattern as last winter for the most part so unless something changes the red on cfs should be further west and blue should cover upper mid west into north east. IMO. the wild card is el-nino and the STJ.

[amugs]

Wow the CFS! Well, with temps dropping i'm also getting ready- i came on here with my snow weenie hat on to post this link http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/09/11/the-92-93-connection-winter-preview/ Good read!

Great read and interesting parallels - just like history - it repeats itself! From hi slips to Mother Nature's ears that the +PNA sets up over the NW CONUS and we get a nice dip in the jet - get the - AO and NAO - open up the STJ and bam - snow weenie's delight!

I know, I know but one can only dream!

[jmanley32]

amugs giggity! You made my day, I can only hope this winter season brings us some brutes, blizzards and high winds (no jinx I knocked on wood)! It better not treat us to bogus models like the tropics have been doing, does that change with the season? Or can we expect similar scenes from the CMC etc. Thanks for that and if in case you didnt see tropics section my gramps passed at 93 years old last night. Sad but was expected as he had DNR and was in a morphine induced sleep state so he could pass peacefully.

[docstox12]

J Man, so sorry to hear about the passing of Gramps.He lived a full life, we should be so lucky to make that number.

My Mom hits 94 in a few weeks, and thank God, she is doing great even after recovering from a broken wrist over the summer.

My thoughts on Long Range....way too early to tell anything right now.See what Frank and Doc and the other weather techies come up with reading the tellies in late November.As they used to say...."Stay tuned...."

[amugs]

amugs giggity!  You made my day, I can only hope this winter season brings us some brutes, blizzards and high winds (no jinx I knocked on wood)!  It better not treat us to bogus models like the tropics have been doing, does that change with the season? Or can we expect similar scenes from the CMC etc.  Thanks for that and if in case you didnt see tropics section my gramps passed at 93 years old last night.  Sad but was expected as he had  DNR and was in a morphine induced sleep state so he could pass peacefully.

Jman,

My sincere sympathies to you and your family and I am sorry to hear this. He is in a better place at this time and will ALWAYS be with you and the ones he loved. I truly believe this and it will hopefully bring you comfort in theses next days and weeks ahead. Keep his memory with you always by sharing stories, pictures and the like and may he bring us from the heaven's above a kick ass winter!!!

Mugs

[Frank_Wx]

amugs giggity!  You made my day, I can only hope this winter season brings us some brutes, blizzards and high winds (no jinx I knocked on wood)!  It better not treat us to bogus models like the tropics have been doing, does that change with the season? Or can we expect similar scenes from the CMC etc.  Thanks for that and if in case you didnt see tropics section my gramps passed at 93 years old last night.  Sad but was expected as he had  DNR and was in a morphine induced sleep state so he could pass peacefully.

Jman- deeply sorry for your loss. He lived a long life and bes in a better place now

[jmanley32]

Well he did live his whole life in VT, and built and plowed many of the roads up there : ) So he is no stranger to crazy snow. Thanks all for your thoughts.

[Dunnzoo]

So sorry for your loss jman, so wonderful that he had such a long life and was able to pass peacefully. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family.

[Frank_Wx]

There will be a slight uptick in temps this weekend, possibly near 80 degrees on Sunday for the final time this year, but another cool down on the way early next week thanks to a dominating ridge in the west.

[amugs]

Look at the GOA - my god it is like a bath up there - could be a good sign for oure winter if we get this through DJF

[Frank_Wx]

I am becoming slightly concerned about a drought to envelop over the region for the Fall season. We may not be seeing any measurable rain for the rest of this month. The first few days of October also look dry. There is a chance of very light showers Monday morning, but that may be it for September. A large area of High Pressure is going to move in behind the front Monday night and just sit over us for at least 7-10 days, preventing storms from moving into our area.

[Frank_Wx]

Look at the GOA - my god it is like a bath up there - could be a good sign for oure winter if we get this through DJF

You can also see along the Equatorial Pacific SST's beginning to warm, indicative of El Nino trying to develop.

[nutleyblizzard]

Look at the GOA - my god it is like a bath up there - could be a good sign for oure winter if we get this through DJF

You can also see along the Equatorial Pacific SST's beginning to warm, indicative of El Nino trying to develop.

The more I look at the GOA, the more confident I feel its going to be a VERY COLD winter coming up, with lots of troughiness in the east. That warm pool looks locked and loaded! Our potential EL Nino looks to be slowly but surely developing. The remaining piece of the puzzle is the NAO. For quite a while it was in negative territory, only until recently it has gone positive. In my opinion, I think the first two factors I just mentioned will occur, which in itself would give us an active winter. However, if the NAO cooperates with us this winter and goes negative- LOOK OUT. With sustained blocking in the Atlantic, it would slow down the progressive nature of the pattern, which would give us ridiculous potential with multiple phasing occurrences. Right now its something to watch as we head into mid and late fall when things become much clearer.

[amugs]

Look at the GOA - my god it is like a bath up there - could be a good sign for oure winter if we get this through DJF

You can also see along the Equatorial Pacific SST's beginning to warm, indicative of El Nino trying to develop.

The more I look at the GOA, the more confident I feel its going to be a VERY COLD winter coming up, with lots of troughiness in the east. That warm pool looks locked and loaded! Our potential EL Nino looks to be slowly but surely developing. The remaining piece of the puzzle is the NAO. For quite a while it was in negative territory, only until recently it has gone positive. In my opinion, I think the first two factors I just mentioned will occur, which in itself would give us an active winter. However, if the NAO cooperates with us this winter and goes negative- LOOK OUT. With sustained blocking in the Atlantic, it would slow down the progressive nature of the pattern, which would give us ridiculous potential with multiple phasing occurrences. Right now its something to watch as we head into mid and late fall when things become much clearer.

Nuts,

After watching or seeing the SST's I agree - the frickin NAO went neg too late for last winter and hate to say is progged to stay positive through Nov on the GFS and NOAA charts but...............IF we can get that to trend Neutral to Neg and get the right blocking - not too far west then we are in business. This past winter the flow was progressive and the -EPO and +PNA did the dirty work for us along with the Scandinavian block that slowed the atmosphere up just enough and keep the storms towards the coast for us to have some fun (well a very good winter - it ended all too fast and teased the crap out of all of us in late Feb through March). We want this pattern to start its progression come by late Oct so things can start to set up in Nov - hey I remember a few winters where we had an above avg Dec with no snow then boom the pattern flipped and we were in the ice box and snow - 1987-88 I recall and 1992-93 was the other - the atmosphere has many factors as to what our winters will be about so it is much more complex that summer or the "other" seasons but I am with you.

[SNOW MAN]

Look at the GOA - my god it is like a bath up there - could be a good sign for oure winter if we get this through DJF

You can also see along the Equatorial Pacific SST's beginning to warm, indicative of El Nino trying to develop.

The more I look at the GOA, the more confident I feel its going to be a VERY COLD winter coming up, with lots of troughiness in the east. That warm pool looks locked and loaded! Our potential EL Nino looks to be slowly but surely developing. The remaining piece of the puzzle is the NAO. For quite a while it was in negative territory, only until recently it has gone positive. In my opinion, I think the first two factors I just mentioned will occur, which in itself would give us an active winter. However, if the NAO cooperates with us this winter and goes negative- LOOK OUT. With sustained blocking in the Atlantic, it would slow down the progressive nature of the pattern, which would give us ridiculous potential with multiple phasing occurrences. Right now its something to watch as we head into mid and late fall when things become much clearer.

                                                               

My hearts starting to beat rapidly already with all this talk of very cold winter, El Nino,-NAO and troughiness. One can only hope all the pieces come together to give us a SPECTACULAR winter season.

[docstox12]

I am becoming slightly concerned about a drought to envelop over the region for the Fall season. We may not be seeing any measurable rain for the rest of this month. The first few days of October also look dry. There is a chance of very light showers Monday morning, but that may be it for September. A large area of High Pressure is going to move in behind the front Monday night and just sit over us for at least 7-10 days, preventing storms from moving into our area.

https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=A111US105&p=PEPACTON+RESERVOIR+PICTURE+DROUGH+1963

(Click on the image with the church steeple)

This is a severe drought picture of a section of the Pepacton Reservoir in the early fall of 1963.Water restrictions were everywhere on that one.We put barrels under downspouts to catch what little water came down in light showers to water bushes and shrubs.Think in November 1963 we got some huge rainstorms of 3 to 4 inches to make up the deficit.Fall droughts bode well as when the pattern changes, we get massive amounts of precip to get back to the statistical mean. We had good snowstorms in Dec 63 and Jan 64 that year.

[docstox12]

http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20130111northeast_blizzard_january_11-14_1964

I'm pretty sure there was an 8 or 9 inch snowfall in Fort Lee NJ a few days before Christmas that year as well.

[Frank_Wx]

I am becoming slightly concerned about a drought to envelop over the region for the Fall season. We may not be seeing any measurable rain for the rest of this month. The first few days of October also look dry. There is a chance of very light showers Monday morning, but that may be it for September. A large area of High Pressure is going to move in behind the front Monday night and just sit over us for at least 7-10 days, preventing storms from moving into our area.

https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=A111US105&p=PEPACTON+RESERVOIR+PICTURE+DROUGH+1963

(Click on the image with the church steeple)

This is a severe drought picture of a section of the Pepacton Reservoir in the early fall of 1963.Water restrictions were everywhere on that one.We put barrels under downspouts to catch what little water came down in light showers to water bushes and shrubs.Think in November 1963 we got some huge rainstorms of 3 to 4 inches to make up the deficit.Fall droughts bode well as when the pattern changes, we get massive amounts of precip to get back to the statistical mean. We had good snowstorms in Dec 63 and Jan 64 that year.

Interesting analogs. Do you happen to know if those were El Niño years?

[docstox12]

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Frank,

according to this chart, 1963-1964 was a moderate El Nino year.

[Frank_Wx]

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Frank,

according to this chart, 1963-1964 was a moderate El Nino year.

That may be a potental analog for the upcoming winter, but I'll have to do a little more research first. 

Thanks Doc.

[docstox12]

OK, Frank, glad it got your interest and we'll see how it plays out.

[algae888]

after a cool start to the week look for a warm spell from Friday thru next Monday with no rain. temps could reach into 80's about 5- 10* above normal. let's get the heat and dry weather out now. amazing how pattern hasn't changed much since last winter.

[HectorO]

after a cool start to the week look for a warm spell from Friday thru next Monday with no rain. temps could reach into 80's about 5- 10* above normal. let's get the heat and dry weather out now. amazing how pattern hasn't changed much since last winter.  

Yea, I saw that too. We could see 80s early October. Not much is going on. Had to turn the AC on just for a few early to get rid of the stickyness. Very humid out.

[Frank_Wx]

As it currently stands, September around the NYC Metro area is running normal to slightly above normal. That is actually pretty impressive considering the temp anomalies the first week of September were way above normal.



However, I still expect the month to finish above normal when all is said and done. Probably in the +1 to +2 vicinity.

The Pacific is going to undergo a pattern change this week and possibly into the beginning of October. The -EPO signal is dissipating and we are going to see a series of trough's enter the Pacific Northwest. In turn, the eastern CONUS is likely to run average to above, especially considering the NAO is also expected to remain positive.



Here is the 1st trough to enter the Pac. NW around mid-week this week. A strong mid-level ridge develops in response, bringing temp departures from normal skyrocketing in the upper Midwest and south-central Canada as high as +10 to +15. In the northeast, we are likely to start the week slightly below average thanks to a short trough behind the cold front tomorrow night, but we will progressively warm up throughout the week and could see temps. in the weekend get back near the 80's.



And the pattern continues into next week as well. Another train of trough's inhibit the EPO region and the combination of +EPO/+NAO should keep the northeast in a general average to above average state. Hence why I believe this month will ultimately finish above normal.



Another look at the temp. departures from normal. The southern and western U.S. is where the below average temps. will be confined. You can see our area is kind of in between, favoring above normal.

And while in the midst of this above normal temp. regime (generally), we will also remain mainly dry. However, I can see how at the end of the month the ridging in the eastern CONUS could lead to the development of a tropical entity to effect the country later this month or early October. There is some signal on current guidance of a coastal storm the very end of September. Still too early to know for certain, but I think the pattern the end of this month calls for some type of organized storm. Rain would be welcoming for most. We'll see what happens.

Enjoy the tranquility for now.

[Isotherm]

Couldn't agree more Frank. The upcoming pattern is both a tranquil and a warm one for the Lakes into the Northeastern US. While the coolness of the past couple weeks has certainly knocked us back quite a bit (down to +1.6 IMBY from near +10 on September 7th), I anticipate the warmth of later this week / weekend / early next week will secure widespread temperature departures of +1 to +3 across the region. It's important to note the averages are rapidly declining such that 80-83F highs (potentially) this weekend would register approximately +10 on the days. 80s are now well above normal as we move into late September. With such an strong ridge in the mid levels building southeastward, I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas well through the 80s on a day or two.



Global signaling seems to suggest at least a temporary relaxation in the cooler temperatures as you noted. +EPO coinciding w/ a +AO/NAO pulse will tighten the jet and retrograde the mean trough into the PAC NW for the next week to 10 days. I'd expect a rather mild first week of October as well (would be an Indian summer type pattern if we had our first frosts).



Summer's close to being dead, but not just yet. Usually I say you can be guaranteed to not need the A/C post October 10th (safe until April 10th, 6 months later). Late September / early October often features the last gasp of summery weather at this latitude (temps in the 80s, high dew points).

[HectorO]

Pretty much what I said a few days ago that the warm trend and 80s would be seen even in October. Looks like the 80s are really hanging in there. ACs are out. Window fans go in. At least that way I can exhaust the warmer air in the apartment.

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