Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[Isotherm]

Couldn't agree more Frank. The upcoming pattern is both a tranquil and a warm one for the Lakes into the Northeastern US. While the coolness of the past couple weeks has certainly knocked us back quite a bit (down to +1.6 IMBY from near +10 on September 7th), I anticipate the warmth of later this week / weekend / early next week will secure widespread temperature departures of +1 to +3 across the region. It's important to note the averages are rapidly declining such that 80-83F highs (potentially) this weekend would register approximately +10 on the days. 80s are now well above normal as we move into late September. With such an strong ridge in the mid levels building southeastward, I wouldn't be surprised to see some areas well through the 80s on a day or two.



Global signaling seems to suggest at least a temporary relaxation in the cooler temperatures as you noted. +EPO coinciding w/ a +AO/NAO pulse will tighten the jet and retrograde the mean trough into the PAC NW for the next week to 10 days. I'd expect a rather mild first week of October as well (would be an Indian summer type pattern if we had our first frosts).



Summer's close to being dead, but not just yet. Usually I say you can be guaranteed to not need the A/C post October 10th (safe until April 10th, 6 months later). Late September / early October often features the last gasp of summery weather at this latitude (temps in the 80s, high dew points).

[HectorO]

Pretty much what I said a few days ago that the warm trend and 80s would be seen even in October. Looks like the 80s are really hanging in there. ACs are out. Window fans go in. At least that way I can exhaust the warmer air in the apartment.

[algae888]

long range gfs 500mb map is showing a big ridge out west and strong trough over the middle of the country starting mid-late next week and lasting for awhile. the flow for our area looks to be from the pacific so mod. temps but the upper mid west could get very cold in the 7-14 day range. air flow coming straight down from the pole.

[HectorO]

It always seems that when we have a comfortable/decent summer its always followed by a milder fall. I know everyone is excited about winter but I hope we at least get a fall. October is one of my favorite months. Chilly, but not overboard cold. I hate going from mild temps to freezing temps when late November/December comes around.

[jmanley32]

So after this pathetic non-nopr easter any long range signs of any good storms headed our way? Patterns that would allow for one? Snow in October is fine with me, although alot of power outages I think it looks really cool on the trees. Maybe wait till November LOL. Nothing on mondels looks remotely interesting at this time.

[docstox12]

Don't mind an October flurry or a dusting but not the disaster of a few years ago when 6 wet inches fell knocking down tree branches everywhere here and causing power outages of 6 to 8 days.I got lucky and kept power but dread heavy snow with the leaves still on after that one,LOL!

Agree, though, it did look nice with the red, yellow and orange leaves.

[Frank_Wx]

Looking ahead...



Weather this weekend into next week looks pleasant, with temps. mainly around average. Even though there is a trough in the western U.S, there looks to be a split-flowish looking pattern in the east with negative heights in the southeast and normal to positive heights in the northeast.

Beyond that, it looks fairly progressive with more chances for rain once we get into October.

[HectorO]

So after this pathetic non-nopr easter any long range signs of any good storms headed our way?  Patterns that would allow for one?  Snow in October is fine with me, although alot of power outages I think it looks really cool on the trees.  Maybe wait till November LOL.  Nothing on mondels looks remotely interesting at this time.

God no, decent snow in October has a bad taste in all of our mouths. It's like a curse, we don't get snow again for like months after it happens. That one a few years ago was followed by one of the worst winters I can remember.

[docstox12]

Yep, total bust by me in Mahwah, maybe 12 inches.

[jmanley32]

Thats true I retract my prior statement! Anyways lookie at 12z Euro may have something to track in the 5-6 day, first model to come on board, to me thats promising.

[jmanley32]

120 hrs

[jmanley32]

144 hrs, and from there it gets really huge over atlantic and stalls 10m wind gusts over cape and easter CT hold for days in 40+ mph range. Not super far of shore, could move west but If a front comes it will stay east. AGAIN, something to watch nonetheless.  And then around the end of the run a substanial rainfall around 9-10 day range from what looks like a 1004mb frontal low. To not (not with much trust) but GFS around end of run has a tropical cyclone developing and moving in a simnilar north fashion to Sandy, no reason to be lieve it wil lget us, but something to look at once it comes into range of CMC and Euro.

[jmanley32]

Morning everyone! I am aware only one up at 6:08am on Sat, but baby calls at 5:30! Anyways Euro is still screaming a strong low in the 5 day, well stronger than the last projected around 1003-1006mb. But WOW the rainfall! Check it out, yikes, imagine if that was snow, HA! GFS is showing it to a lower extent. But as we know gotta respect the Euro, especially since it was the first to catch on and if it plays things mediocre, and this is right could be even stronger, any thoughtd Frank or is this not in the cards and just another fooling of the models, quite frankly (ha no pun intended) I do not know what models to TRUST anymore. This one also carries some tropical storm force wind gusts for a time with it.

[jmanley32]

[docstox12]

Wow! Haven't seen something like this in ages in this extended dry spell.That would give us some relief.

[sroc4]

Good call JMan.  Currently still huge spread however in the models in how this plays out.  Euro has been hinting at this, so my ears are def raised.  Euro is trying to phase N and S stream energy.  Its much stronger with the N energy.  GFS has a weaker northern piece and holds back some of the southern energy; therefore, misses the phase.  And the CMC is trying to phase the energy too late and OTS and is faster with the Southern energy.   Timing and intensity still need to be ironed out with the diff pieces.  I am leaning towards the Euro as of now.
Euro 00z Tues:
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Euro 00z Wed
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GFS 00z Tues
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GFS 00z Wed
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CMC 00z Tues
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CMC 00z Wed
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[sroc4]

I started a separate thread for this potential since its under 5days out.

[algae888]

forget about getting up early jman in another 2 months many people including myself will be up all night tracking. can't wait!!!! lol so every one get your sleep in now while you can. to me it's a good sign that we are starting to see coastal lows forms. I like also the positions of the last few HP systems as they are staying to our north. if we get this setup in winter we will not get much sleep.

[HectorO]

NOOOOOO! LOL, not yet, let me enjoy fall. The feel of cool air and crisp nights and the smell of firewood burning. I don't wanna shovel right now.

[Dtone]

Agreed I can't think about snow when it's 84* outside. I still want to squeeze more outdoor activities in before the real cold sets in.

[amugs]

Both the GEFS and Euro ensembles agree on the -NAO building into the Greenland/Davis Strait around Oct. 5

[nutleyblizzard]

Both the GEFS and Euro ensembles agree on the  -NAO building into the Greenland/Davis Strait around Oct. 5

As we head into October, I start to pay more attention on pattern setups, as it often foretells the upcoming winter season. Two things that I'll be looking for (as far as a cold and snowy winter), will be a sustained -NAO/-AO regime, and coastal storm developments.

[sroc4]

Both the GEFS and Euro ensembles agree on the  -NAO building into the Greenland/Davis Strait around Oct. 5

As we head into October, I start to pay more attention on pattern setups, as it often foretells the upcoming winter season. Two things that I'll be looking for (as far as a cold and snowy winter), will be a sustained -NAO/-AO regime, and coastal storm developments.

This was Steve Demartino's write up regarding the current snow growth status in N Canada and Siberia...encouraging to say the least.  
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SNOW GROWTH UPDATE!  Okay, everyone cheer.

Seriously, this is the one missing component for me to make my winter forecast which will be out around October 20th.  What we are seeing today is really a good sign if you love cold and snowy weather patterns.  If not, well stock up on soup and hot coco.

The latest analysis shows significant above normal snow anomalies in Siberia and northern Canada.  Note the areas in white stand for near normal levels so that simply means the rest of North America is at climatological norms.  Meanwhile, there is very little in the way of below normal anomalies over North America.  Basically there are two small areas, both of which have little significance on the development of Polar/Arctic air masses.  It is the area over Siberia that really catches my eye.  Snowfall departures are above normal in these locations and have grown significantly over the past week.  These types of anomalies continue into October and we are setting up an environment for a robust and dominating invasion of Polar and Arctic air masses into the United States.  Take these factors and combine with my discussion from yesterday about our coastal low and I think you see where I am going here.

So two weeks in and we are well above normal so far in snow growth.  We still have to monitor the first two weeks of October and then I'll have the data I need.  Why two weeks?  Well, I have seen plenty of years where the snow growth has started off strong only to be destroyed by a Pacific air mass, so we can't jump the gun yet.  If these anomalies persist and grow in mid October then we have established the base needed to support a forecast for a cold and snowy winter.  Think of this like the first layer of paint to get the base established.

[jmanley32]

Yay, I still do not totally understand all this but picking out what I can sounds like could be alot of sleepless nights if this continues like he said.

[amugs]

Scott,

Thanks for the information. I was going to pull some research out on this the first week of October when a s Demartino says is prime time to see where we are and do a comparison at the end of oct and mid and end of nov. with hat so pronged to go negative and it looks like is will be sustained for a good week + ( we must have patience and faith) then things could get interesting.

Btw great write up about the coastal- a few days to early but maybe the reason why the NAO goes negative?

If you want to read a good scientific climo synopsis take a look at what i posted in the winter outlook thread. He says its coming!

[amugs]

http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4271_f10/readings/week_12_13_francis_et_al_2009GL037274.pdfWinter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent


Read this article - interesting about the retraction of arctic sea ice and how it correlates to the NAO modulation.

[jmanley32]

Take a look at my tropics post, its long range too so thought I would mention it here too. Something could be brewing in 2nd or 3rd week October in Caribbean and moving north. Before it was showing the entitiy every GFS run at 384 hrs but now it stated at 264 on 12z GFS, not sure what this fall pattern will do with it IF it were to develop but we do know the GFS has had a terrible time with tropics this year in developing non existant storms but I am keeping a eye on the runs anyways.

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