Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[amugs]

Scott - great point but only time will tell with this set up and hopefully it is just a temporary upwelling from the trop cyclones that have been hammering the PAC IMO.

For teh rest of us - what does this look like on the euro 7 days out ??

[amugs]

For you JMAN!!

[jmanley32]

LOL mugs, I posted on it in tropics section : ) Howevere been so busy didn't realize it was up to 50% so fast. Your above image a wild guess does that look like it could form a coastal? It appears that Euro pulls in the system in the tropics, that could be bad news.  If not what does it look like?

[jmanley32]

I am not posting a pic again, however I am going to just say this the 00z GFS is scary starting in tropics around 240 and lets just say hypothtically that anything in this time frame could ever be right which is probably isn't. But this system heads OTS at 288 only to retrograde back into Cape Cod at 312, insane, and I am talking a HUGE storm like Sandy, like the graphic I posted the other day (hasn't been just one run and dropped from 384 to 312 now in two days). If you wish to take a look go ahead, if not I understand, was just a bit jarring to see another retrograde senario even modeled, even if and probably is wrong. But check this article, may not be totally wrong.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/upcoming-window-for-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-development-the-7-14-day-tropical-cyclogenesis-risk-outlook-1014-1021/

[sroc4]

Steve D just mentioned this as well in his latest outlooks.

Giggidy!

http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/all-time-record-north-america-snow-cover-hits-45-year-high

[amugs]

Steve D just mentioned this as well in his latest outlooks.  

Giggidy!

http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/all-time-record-north-america-snow-cover-hits-45-year-high

Saw that as well yesterday in a blog - great stuff - will propagate cold and hopefully pattern will induce precip for us snow weenies!!

[jmanley32]

Dunno if they know something we do not but Con Edison here in Yonkers has been working feverishly on lines putting up stronger poles and cutting back trees everywhere, something I have never seen in the 8 years I have lived here. Either they are just fortifying since Sandy or they are concerned of harsh noreasters this fall and winter.

[amugs]

Next week - huge cut off low on the Euro - mid to latter part.

[jmanley32]

How will that affect us mugs?

[sroc4]

Next week - huge cut off low on the Euro - mid to latter part.

Take notice of the LP just north of eastern Cuba. Now Look at the position of the ridge off the NE coast (HP on the surface map), and look at the position of the ULL on the 500mb map centered over Indiana-ish, and look at the alley in between. Counter clockwise flow around the ULL and clockwise around the ridge(HP) could draw that tropical LP right up the gut and make things interesting. If If IF IF that 500mb soln were to verify of course. LOOOONNGG way to go. For now we watch. But I am intrigued by this set up given the MJO and some of the other teles

[skinsfan1177]

Next week - huge cut off low on the Euro - mid to latter part.

Take notice of the LP just north of eastern Cuba.  Now Look at the position of the ridge off the NE coast (HP on the surface map), and look at the position of the ULL on the 500mb map centered over Indiana-ish, and look at the alley in between.  Counter clockwise flow around the ULL and clockwise around the ridge(HP) could draw that tropical LP right up the gut and make things interesting. If If IF IF that 500mb soln were to verify of course.  LOOOONNGG way to go.  For now we watch.  But I am intrigued by this set up given the MJO and some of the other teles

So sroc4 that high in the atlantic if it verified would act like a block correct and steer the storm toward the coast correct

[amugs]

Next week - huge cut off low on the Euro - mid to latter part.

Take notice of the LP just north of eastern Cuba.  Now Look at the position of the ridge off the NE coast (HP on the surface map), and look at the position of the ULL on the 500mb map centered over Indiana-ish, and look at the alley in between.  Counter clockwise flow around the ULL and clockwise around the ridge(HP) could draw that tropical LP right up the gut and make things interesting. If If IF IF that 500mb soln were to verify of course.  LOOOONNGG way to go.  For now we watch.  But I am intrigued by this set up given the MJO and some of the other teles

Scott could not have explained it better meself !! Thank you oh great color analysis!

If this holds say by Sunday and the runs of Monday - then we get some action finally to look at instead of the yawners!!

[jmanley32]

What time frame are we talking? And which system that's on models? Are u talking about 90l? Or a different tropical low? The only tropical low I see in that area next week is probably going to be gonzalo. Sorry if I don't understand this I don't mean to make things difgicult. So are we saying a possible major coastal from tropics back on table for next week? Nothing on models yet concrete as far I can see. I will look into what you are talking about.

[sroc4]

Next week - huge cut off low on the Euro - mid to latter part.

Take notice of the LP just north of eastern Cuba.  Now Look at the position of the ridge off the NE coast (HP on the surface map), and look at the position of the ULL on the 500mb map centered over Indiana-ish, and look at the alley in between.  Counter clockwise flow around the ULL and clockwise around the ridge(HP) could draw that tropical LP right up the gut and make things interesting. If If IF IF that 500mb soln were to verify of course.  LOOOONNGG way to go.  For now we watch.  But I am intrigued by this set up given the MJO and some of the other teles

So sroc4 that high in the atlantic if it verified would act like a block correct and steer the storm toward the coast correct

Skins. I would say could instead of would, but yes exactly.  What need to happen though is the ULL and its associated trough needs to draw the storm up.  But that doesnt happen on this run. What is not shown by the image is that the run continues and shows that energy being left behind and the ULL lifts up and out taking the blocking along with it.  That tropical LP meanders about 24hrs or so in that general vicinity until another weaker trough dives in over the plains.  The eastern side of the trough is very progressive and by about the 19th/20th on the run the tropical system gets caught up in the flow and turns OTS.

[img][/img]

 If that system will influence us it has to be picked up by the sharp trough associated with that ULL in the image in the time frame between Oct 15th-17th/18th or so.  If you buy the run verbatim it misses that trough meanders a day or two then is picked up by the next one coming in around the 19th.  

JMan number one on this map is what will potentially become the system in question.  


I wouldn't get all excited by this just yet.  Its something on the models.  As currently modeled by the European its something only the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos need to be worried with. So with that I continue to watch.

[jmanley32]

I figured it was #1 which since we have fay will likely become gonzalo and if the Euro is right makes it close to major hurricane status. If what you say actually happened and it didnt miss the first it would be real bad news for us. Alot of times strong cyclones even going extratropical can bomb out worse than they were fully tropical, or at least I have seen it before. I guess we can only watch and wait to see if the models pick up on that idea. But I do see the images above, for some reason when I wrote that I was on my phone and the images were not showing. Well we should know within the next several days, if the models do not catch on by then they probably won't, OR since they havent been good even mid to short range may become a nowcast. Once he develops the models may act differently. I have been reading on some tropical boards with professional mets and also JB are pretty sure we will have a hurricane out of #1 in the 5 day. We shall see. But things certainly started to get interesting today fast.

[jmanley32]

Is this the setup we had with Sandy?  Or similar?  A blocking and a pull to the west. I see the alleyway on the GFS 18z run moving along with each stamp and it still gets sent ots BUT it gets closer and goes a bit further north. This is like precise timing is what it comes down to, if it doesn't come at exactly the right time it will be offshore or ots, depending on how strong this storm gets that may or may not be wanted. You can see the north alleyway on the GFS ensembles however they are further east by alot, if the timing is slower we are in trouble....possibly watch and wait. I know nothing about the tele comm stuff so I will trust amugs on this and am curious to hear what Frank chimes in about this?

[algae888]

accu weather brett Anderson on latest euro forecast for this winter. he is not a hype guy just informs on the data. two things he mentions. 1) that ao should be neg and 2) looks to be stormy on the east coast. here's the link...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077

[amugs]

FANTASY from Europe Euro for us winter weenies!! This would be awesome if it were Dec, Jan ,Feb or early March!

[jmanley32]

Dang mugs u beat me to it lol, yeah looks like a coastal trying to develop  at 240, huge plume of moisture from caribbean.  I'll post the pic I was going to anyways : )

[jmanley32]

Here is what is interesting about this, not the only model showing a huge coastal, Remember I mentioned back that the GFS was showing a monster storm well check the 06z. Granted its about 2 days difference but in the long range thats not that big. Something else to watch for any trends as we get into truncation this week.

[jmanley32]

OMG if it was only winter!  Check out the Euro Control, run!  If that came out of fantasy land and actually happened would give us a good rain and wind whipping, some of the ensembles show it getting into the 970's and 960's, I'm watching : ) Does it mean much that the Euro and GFS are are the same page this far out? Normally I wouldn't think to see two models pretty much on the same page at 240+ hrs.

[sroc4]

This is one hell of a cut off low.  Think about this for a second.  Try to visualize what is actually happening and the scale at which its happening.  We've all seen the wind swirl coming around a building or whatever, and the leaves or a plastic bag getting caught up in the swirl...round and round it goes.  Now look at this image and imagine that same swirl only on a scale at least hundreds of thousands times larger happening at about 18,000-20,000 feet in the atmosphere; the air swirling overhead about the size of half the CONUS.  
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Zoom out even further and look towards Jupiter.  Yes Jupiter.  The Red dot on Jupiter is a swirling storm of gases that is bigger than the earth!  Think about that for a second.  



Lets zoom out even further!!  Now look at the Milky Way.  Our galaxy.  It too swirls round and round a center on a scale that is barely comprehensible for us teenie weenie, ity bitty not even a fleck in this vast crazy universe.  



 When you think about the philosophical question of how all of this all works the common theme is its all driven by circular motion.  The upper level closed low above would not be possible if not for the rotation of the earth around its axis right?  We as humans seem pretty confident in that right?  So what about the universe?  What forces drive the formation of galaxies and there rotational motion?  Think about the motion of two galaxies in close proximity to each other.  There are actually images of galaxies exhibiting the Fujiwhara Effect.  The National Weather Service defines the Fujiwhara Effect as the tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other.




Yes this is the kind of stuff that when I am alone on Sunday morning drinking my coffee I ponder.   Dork to the max maybe, but if you stop to really try and think about it and the scale at which it all occurs...poof!! Mind blown.  Carry on

[algae888]

sroc fascinating stuff!!! and to believe this all happened by chance? as for our weather im noticing a very amplified pattern next few weeks. a lot of strong ridges and troughs. is this in response to the season changes or is this a pattern we can expect throughout winter? so far the winter outlooks that I have seen are predicting not many storms but fewer and bigger storms. also look for some big cool downs after these storms pass our area. there looks to be some pretty cold air just north of central Canada. late next weekend some of this cold may come into our area.

[Frank_Wx]

Doc that was a great post

[amugs]

Why not DJF WHY Mother Nature!! Euro showing a bomb here with a track off of Va coast - would have been a great track for winter - let's hope it repeats this in 48 hours before a bomb-genesis again in DJF (winter)!

[jmanley32]

Yeah I posted that above mugs. Gfs agrees too could be big noreaster. What is djf?

[jmanley32]

Maybe we get a unexpected cold blast too however then we would have to deal with trees coming down. I'm hoping for this for winter too to be awesome. Also to note, accuwx, shows heavy raina dn 40+ mph wind gusts for the 22nd, so guess they are buying into a storm in that time frame. A lot of time to watch that though it could all change and probably will at least to some degree.

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