Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[jmanley32]

I am aware Quietace, i do not think a Sandy 2 would be anybodys fantasy. Anythoughts on the second post which is much closer in time?

[HectorO]

I am aware Quietace, i do not think a Sandy 2 would be anybodys fantasy.  Anythoughts on the second post which is much closer in time?

I agree, but there are people with sick fantasies lol.

[jmanley32]

I love the crazy power of storms but the aftermaths are not worth the storm. If we could only have these storms with no problems afterwards I'd be all for it.

[SNOW MAN]

Thanks Jman and Mugs for your input. Your right Mugs it's not what I wanted to hear. I guess I'll have to keep a close eye to the our weather board for any developments. Thanks again guys.

[Isotherm]

Below is a 500mb composite of the 11 cases in which a < -0.75 October AO occurred, and their ensuing winters. 9/11 or 82% of those cases featured a -AO average for DJF. The glaring failures were 74-75 and 06-07 here. What's interesting is that this correlation does not really exist for > +0.75 AO Octobers as their ensuing winters featured mixed results. At this point in time, it's still early in the season, and generally when we examine -AO or +AO Octobers, there isn't much of a correlation when including the weakly positive or negative cases.

[nutleyblizzard]

stevie d believes el-nino will not be a driving factor in the 500mb pattern for this winter. says models have done poor job of forecasting it. he thinks sst in northern pac and stratospheric warming will be key factors and if el-nino develops it will enhance the pattern. so does this mean we can expect a warmer and less active winter?

I have been monitoring the SST's in the ENSO region on a weekly basis. They are not making the progress I expected them too, and as of now, the diagnostic an statistical models are busting badly. ENSO region 3.4 as of last week was at +0.3, though region 1+2 is up to +1.0. However, region 3.4 is most important. I stll think it is too early. I want the rest of October and 1st half of November to finish out before concluding El Nino will not be a driving factor this winter.

If the EL Nino fails to develop and we end up neutral, our tele connectors become of more importance. We need to strive for a dominate +PNA/-NAO/-AO regime and then we will be in good shape.

[jmanley32]

Snowman what did mugs say that you didn't want to hear, I forget what input I gave you lol. Looks like no storm system from south next week but looks like a pretty brutish storm sysytem (much stronger than the one last night) is coming in from the west around the 15th which some sort of cyclonic system in atlantic hooks up with it, but offshore. If they were to meet that would be bad. Frank any thoughts on the system below?

[jmanley32]

sroc missed your earlier post on the ensembles, I agree but since that post the NHC marked the area and now it pretty much looks like the GFS and Euro are agreeing on this developing in the pacific.  However as I pointed above and as you, mugs and Frank among others have mentioned there are signs next week could be active.  With the huge differences in the GFS and Euro its going to be a wait and see thing until the models can get a better handle on it.  Check this graphic out its pretty cool and shows you how crazy the differences are. Euro is red and GFS is blue. They are worlds apart. Note this was not the 12z today, I believe it was yesterday or the day before.

[jmanley32]

FYI I am posting back in the tropics section as the season is not over and to avoid overcrowding the other threads with tropical stuff since alot of winter stuff is being talked about now. November 30th shut it down Frank.mugs.sroc or dunzoo lol.

[Frank_Wx]

Snowman what did mugs say that you didn't want to hear, I forget what input I gave you lol.  Looks like no storm system from south next week but looks like a pretty brutish storm sysytem (much stronger than the one last night) is coming in from the west around the 15th which some sort of cyclonic system in atlantic hooks up with it, but offshore.  If they were to meet that would be bad.  Frank any thoughts on the system below?

Right now this looks like a strong cold front. The EURO, though, is cutting it off and phasing two pieces of energy to form a strong low pressure system. I do not think that is right. But as always will continue to watch.

[Frank_Wx]

Below is a 500mb composite of the 11 cases in which a < -0.75 October AO occurred, and their ensuing winters. 9/11 or 82% of those cases featured a -AO average for DJF. The glaring failures were 74-75 and 06-07 here. What's interesting is that this correlation does not really exist for > +0.75 AO Octobers as their ensuing winters featured mixed results. At this point in time, it's still early in the season, and generally when we examine -AO or +AO Octobers, there isn't much of a correlation when including the weakly positive or negative cases.

Good post.

Check out what the SST's are looking like in the Pacific.



The train of typhoons are impacting the SST's pretty tremendously in the western and northwest Pacific, hence the much below normal departures. I have a feeling once things settle down over there, Nino may try to get on a roll. Studying the SST pattern this Fall will be key to the winter outlook.

[skinsfan1177]

Below is a 500mb composite of the 11 cases in which a < -0.75 October AO occurred, and their ensuing winters. 9/11 or 82% of those cases featured a -AO average for DJF. The glaring failures were 74-75 and 06-07 here. What's interesting is that this correlation does not really exist for > +0.75 AO Octobers as their ensuing winters featured mixed results. At this point in time, it's still early in the season, and generally when we examine -AO or +AO Octobers, there isn't much of a correlation when including the weakly positive or negative cases.

Good post.

Check out what the SST's are looking like in the Pacific.

Frank can you explain to me if its not to much what sst are and what they do thank you

The train of typhoons are impacting the SST's pretty tremendously in the western and northwest Pacific, hence the much below normal departures. I have a feeling once things settle down over there, Nino may try to get on a roll. Studying the SST pattern this Fall will be key to the winter outlook.  

[jmanley32]

Frank given how bad the GFS has been and usually caving to the Euro wouldn't it be safer to guess that the Euro is right? I didnt notice much on the Euro for our area, even so thats a powerful coldfront, those are 850mb winds we could be looking at 50mph gusts for a time. But now that I think about it all the modeling this year has been really off so watch is probably the best thing, for all we know the GFS will bring back what it had and we will get a big coastal, I dunno what to think anymore lol

[Frank_Wx]

It is not about the models, Jman. More about studying the upper level pattern. The reason why the EURO has a cut-off storm is because there is a large low pressure system in southeast Canada just sitting and spinning, so the EURO congregates all the energy to the center of the country. GFS pushes everything east, which to me makes more sense in a progressive flow.

[skinsfan1177]

Can some one explain to me sst are and how they influence are upcoming upcoming winter.

[Frank_Wx]

Can some one explain to me sst are and how they influence are upcoming upcoming winter.

SST = Sea Surface Temperatures

Recall last winter when the northern Pacific Ocean was experiencing SST's much above normal. What ended up occurring was a lot of ridging into Alaska (positive heights) which lead to frequent troughs (below heights) in the eastern U.S. I'm not sure how true this is, but I find there is a direct correlation to ridging above +SST's and troughs over -SST departures. So studying the SST pattern and trying to map out how it may look like this winter, including the ENSO, should give good insight as to how the overall 500 mb pattern will play out for the US.

[Quietace]

I am aware Quietace, i do not think a Sandy 2 would be anybodys fantasy.  Anythoughts on the second post which is much closer in time?

That is not my point, sorry if i misspoke.
My point is that you posted a graphic that is 384 hours out. Which is in fantasy land itself. Most systems past truncation on the GFS especially 240+ hours hours out rarely verify if at all. Posting images that far out just adds hype to a system that will most likely not form and is not constructive IMO.

[nutleyblizzard]

Frank from the looks at the SST map, the northern pacific up towards Alaska look plenty warm, which would lock in troughiness for the east coast. What we obviously need for an active winter is the Atlantic to cooperate. If we can get a dominating -NAO this winter along with the +PNA, we'll be in business. On top of that, if the EL Nino develops, then the skys the limit.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank from the looks at the SST map, the northern pacific up towards Alaska look plenty warm, which would lock in troughiness for the east coast. What we obviously need for an active winter is the Atlantic to cooperate. If we can get a dominating -NAO this winter along with the +PNA, we'll be in business. On top of that, if the EL Nino develops, then the skys the limit.

Between now and December 1st (start of Meteorological winter) is still a good bit away. So these SST anomalies could change. But like I said before, once the tropics slow down in the Pacific things may become a little clearer. Hopefully the PDO does not revert back to negative, which I think will not happen since the PDO is usually cyclical.

[jmanley32]

Good idea ace, I figured since we are all pretty aware here that its fantasy land that no one would get hyped but its true you get new members that may not know.  So by all means remove it I agree now that I think about it, its pointless (waste of your time and mine).  Same reason why I do not post that kind of stuff on Facebook.  I should probably do the same here.

And Frank yes I know there is alot more too it but you are way above me on understanding all that stuff and I do not have enough time to really learn it at this time. So I guess I will watch and see what you have to say, you seems to get things right more than wrong which is great.

[Frank_Wx]

Yikes...really hoping the GEFS are overdone with the extent of the trough over the GOA beginning this weekend into the rest of October.







While the east remains mainly cool, the warm pool in the northern Pac. would be severely impacted if this were to be true.

[jmanley32]

Sorry Frank and this would mean what? Warmer temps and less snow (knock on wood)?

[Frank_Wx]

GOA = Gulf of Alaska



That is the area last winter that had above normal sea surface temps which contributed to the persistent -EPO/+TNA pattern, which obviously brought us all that cold and snow. If it dissipates, and the ENSO never gets going, that could be a worst-case scenario for people looking for a repeat of last winter. But still too early. It is possible this trough does not impact the SST's as much, but I will be curious to see.

[Math23x7]

Frank, I have noticed that recently, the AO index was about -4, the NAO was at about -1.8 and the PNA is forecasted in the coming days to get to around +1. If the -EPO/+TNA pattern dissipates and the El Nino doesn't get going as you state, but we maintain the AO, NAO, and PNA values as indicated in December and January, would we still have a cold snowy winter?

[sroc4]

Frank from the looks at the SST map, the northern pacific up towards Alaska look plenty warm, which would lock in troughiness for the east coast. What we obviously need for an active winter is the Atlantic to cooperate. If we can get a dominating -NAO this winter along with the +PNA, we'll be in business. On top of that, if the EL Nino develops, then the skys the limit.

Between now and December 1st (start of Meteorological winter) is still a good bit away. So these SST anomalies could change. But like I said before, once the tropics slow down in the Pacific things may become a little clearer. Hopefully the PDO does not revert back to negative, which I think will not happen since the PDO is usually cyclical.

Frank this is a great point!  I have been watching the SST in both the Atlantic and Pacific since last Jan; saving images every 4 months or so.  Notice how large the SST anomalies were last Jan. in the NE Pac. and compare them with now.  The area has shrunk drastically and the warm anomalies have crept down the NW coast, particularly the area between Hawaii and the Western CONUS.  Also the anomalies in the Beiring sea have warmed significantly since Jan.  They are similar in intensity compared to the area in the GOA whereas last Jan they were cooler relatively speaking.  Will this affect the ability for the trough set up over the Aleutians which aided in the amplification of the ridge over the west coast all of last winter?  Look at that finger of cool anomalies infiltrating from the west.  This has been by and large the basic track for all of the major tropical cyclones that have re-curved during this tropical season.  I am worried that the NE Pac is trying to flip.  Maybe not in time for this winter, but possibly by the summer of next year.  
Jan 19th 2014:
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Also notice the Atlantic SST anomalies.  The area to me that stands out the most is the anomaly off the coast of Western Europe.  Last Jan was cold anomalies.   Currently a warm pool has developed.  Will this affect the down stream setup this year??  What I don't have are the Atlantic anomalies for this time frame from last year.  I don't know much about how quickly this area can flip based on the depth of water etc.  Anyway def stuff to watch.  I agree once the Tropical Pac calms down we can see how the El Nino or lack thereof sets up and if the influences of the warm anomalies in the NE Pac on the EPO and PNA will be as pronounced as they were last winter.      Of course we can't forget about how the stratospheric warming anomalies, particularly where they set up, will affect the overall pattern.  
Jan 19th 2014:
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Sept 30th 2014:
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Side note: Typhoon Vongfong is     forecasted to recurve over the next 3-5days and should still lead to a trough in the east towards the end of the month.  We will prob lock into more of a normal to colder than avg pattern going into November.

[amugs]

Scott - great point but only time will tell with this set up and hopefully it is just a temporary upwelling from the trop cyclones that have been hammering the PAC IMO.

For teh rest of us - what does this look like on the euro 7 days out ??

[amugs]

For you JMAN!!

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