Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[sroc4]

I think the key is not the + NAO or Ridge in the west but rather just how large of an area closes off at H5.  The larger the area the more it disconnects from the main flow and meanders.  Then IF any kind of vertical stacking occurs determines intensification.  The smaller the area that closes off the more influences the ridge in the west and progressive flow in the east will have.

I think

[Frank_Wx]

I think what it boils down to is all this H5 vorticity trying to consolidate at the base of the trough and developing a potent storm. Anytime you have a rolling ridge in the west it becomes difficult for those s/w energies phase because of the zonal nature of the pattern. Will there be a coastal storm? Probably. But there's not a piece of guidance that shows it bringing high impact to our area. The most bullish model is the EURO OP so far, with about 1-2 inches of rain and some wind. But we'll see how this weekend trends

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS is a good example of what happens when there is s/w energy flying all over the place. At 90 hours on the 6z GFS you have a broad LP moving into New England. Then at about 105 hours another s/w piece of energy phases into the system and deepens it to bring more rain and a rejuvenated storm to New England. If that phase happens sooner, then NYC and northern NJ could as well get into those higher rain totals.

[Frank_Wx]

So if what I said about the phase comes true, even though I do not believe it will happen, the rain totals you see in New England would be a possibility for NYC as well. As of now though, this looks like a nuisance storm bringing 1-2 inches of rain over a 3-4 day period. Which is very much doable for us.

Edit: it may also be 1-2 inches is too high. I can definitely see how western and southern areas see far less compared to northern areas.

[sroc4]

I think what it boils down to is all this H5 vorticity trying to consolidate at the base of the trough and developing a potent storm. Anytime you have a rolling ridge in the west it becomes difficult for those s/w energies phase because of the zonal nature of the pattern. Will there be a coastal storm? Probably. But there's not a piece of guidance that shows it bringing high impact to our area. The most bullish model is the EURO OP so far, with about 1-2 inches of rain and some wind. But we'll see how this weekend trends

I think you and I are looking at the same box from slightly different perspectives. This point was the one I was trying to make in my original comments a day or two ago. That is that how all that energy behaves associated with the ULL and if any of it can consolidate will affect totals. I agree 100% however, that this will most likely be nothing to write home about for our area. A general 0.5-2.5" totals over the entire period Lower totals S and west and higher N and east. I still think if the soln leans closer to the Euro soln where we get stronger vorticity with some vertical stacking of the atmosphere areas like the CT coast up through S Maine could see significant rain totals with flooding as I outlined above. And areas like eastern half of LI could end up a tick higher like 2-4" total from Tuesday through Friday ish as well. The 12 Z GFS is coming in with a more amplified H5 appearance, but IMO the surface doesnt not match H5. I could be wrong of course. Ill wait to see the Euro and CMC before I say much more.

[jmanley32]

Is it supposed to be really windy tomorrow various places are showing as high as 20 to 30 sustained which would put gusts to at least 35 to 45 but I do not see any support on nws euro shows some stronger winds but no advisories or anything. I know it's going to be chilly though.  As for this coming week euro shows the storm but almost no rain for the area but increasing winds up to 45 kts gusts as low departs. We will see this for cast looks hard. Frank didn't do a blog so I guess that means he is either busy or not concerned.

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS has this storm stalling off the coast of NJ before heading NE meanwhile the EURO is much further to the north and east stalling it off the coast of Maine but overall has the evolution moving faster compared to the GFS. Hopefully the EURO is more correct I don't want this sitting off NJ spewing rain showers on and off for several days.

[sroc4]

GFS has this storm stalling off the coast of NJ before heading NE meanwhile the EURO is much further to the north and east stalling it off the coast of Maine but overall has the evolution moving faster compared to the GFS. Hopefully the EURO is more correct I don't want this sitting off NJ spewing rain showers on and off for several days.

What's up Tom. Welcome Back.

[jmanley32]

It will be interesting to see what unfolds, still a few days out. We know things can change. Interesting to note whats headed north in the 10 day on Euro looks like subtropical from FL area, not sure what pattern will be there if it will be shunted ots or if its another potential coastal. I say keep em coming as long as they eventually bring us some wild snowstorms : )

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS has this storm stalling off the coast of NJ before heading NE meanwhile the EURO is much further to the north and east stalling it off the coast of Maine but overall has the evolution moving faster compared to the GFS. Hopefully the EURO is more correct I don't want this sitting off NJ spewing rain showers on and off for several days.

What's up Tom.  Welcome Back.  

Yeah I've been on and off for a while, nothing really exciting has happened thus far but it looks like we'll go below freezing tomorrow night so that's showing the transition to winter, it's definitely getting cooler overall.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS and EURO runs today confirmed my thoughts that the bulk of the rain will fall in New England. It's even trended weaker, not getting below 1000mb and remaining relatively broad in nature. Not impressed.

[sroc4]

The GFS and EURO runs today confirmed my thoughts that the bulk of the rain will fall in New England. It's even trended weaker, not getting below 1000mb and remaining relatively broad in nature. Not impressed.

Agreed. I started a new thread so this one can go back to the long range discussion.

[Frank_Wx]

Sea surface temps this morning in the ENSO and PDO regions look great. I think I can safely say El Nino is starting to come together, slowly but surely, which means the sub tropical jet stream over the winter could be a big player for some big storms. Let's just hope the cold temps are there to accompany it

[amugs]

Sea surface temps this morning in the ENSO and PDO regions look great. I think I can safely say El Nino is starting to come together, slowly but surely, which means the sub tropical jet stream over the winter could be a big player for some big storms. Let's just hope the cold temps are there to accompany it

This is wonderful news to get thes etwo players on teh table - could be a 1977-78 or 2003-04, 2009-10 type winter that had similar set ups - the eurasia snow growth and canadian snow growth is comingto gether as well for us - need the AO and NAO to cooperate and BAM we shoudl be having soem fun an dall nighter thiese next few months - or at least I am praying for !
Or else I lose my self appointed crown as King Snow Weenie!

Okay does anyone recall JB saying after the 2009-10 winter that the next 3 out of 5 winters would be cold and snowy - people laughed in 2010-11 as we torched but for the most part I know he is hype artist with storms but he is close to being spot on - I have to try and dig up that article

[jmanley32]

So I know you all are talking about the very long range but I was wondering ( I know exact details can't be painted 10+ days out) what the weather might be like for Halloween? I find it interesting that accuwx has Oct 30-Nov 2nd with heavy rain and winds gusts to 50-60mph, where are they getting this from? I know their forecasts long range change daily and can be very bogus especially the winds, but is there a chance the weather will be bad on our around Halloween, to that extent? Any kind of patterns etc?

[Isotherm]

There are certain patterns that you "want" to see in November in terms of foretelling an ensuing favorable pattern for DJF, but there are quite a few cases in which November's pattern falls in the unfavorable category, yet the DJF periods still turned out good. In those cases, generally < 35% of the time, one will see the regime beginning to transition toward the end of November into early December. 2009 is a good example of this. Other cases in which the November pattern was generally unfavorable, but improved for the winter:



2003-04

2009-10

1979-80

1986-87

1977-78



These aren't all of them, but some of the notable scenarios. One should notice that the majority of these years were either El Nino or warm neutral patterns, and that is not a coincidence. El Nino atmospheric regimes are sometimes delayed in the development of tropospheric blocking.


There's a healthy westerly wind bursting progged to occur w/ solid -SOI over the next week-10 days, which should warm the western ENSO regions. Most data I've seen suggests a 3.4 based event, possibly region 4, while regions 1+2 are progged to be the coolest.













So right now I'm far from concerned about the winter. The first half of November, while I'd "like" to see a certain pattern, it's less important than the progression that occurs in the second half of November into early December.

Tom so what you're saying is we could be in a transition period where the upper level pattern is transitioning from neutral ENSO to +ENSO. This makes sense since the analogs you mention happen to be +ENSO years, so I do not think it is a coincidence those years features above normal temps. in the Fall.

Yeah I don't think we can necessarily draw any conclusions about the ensuing winter from the coming 2-3 weeks. With that being said, what we certainly don't want to see in November is the appearance of a Bering Sea / AK vortex, as that spells ultimate doom -- see 2011, 2006, early 1990s, etc.

Right now, I'm reasonably satisfied with the progression of October parameters, though I would have preferred to see a dominant +NAO in conjunction with the -AO / Aleutian trough. Nevertheless, can't have our cake and eat it too.

The snow cover advance in the northern hemisphere has been pretty impressive to date. Will be interesting to see the final SAI/SCE numbers.

I'd say the variable I'm most uncertain about right now is the NAO, which also happens to be one of the more important winter indices for our area.

In other news, solar activity has decreased over the past week. We'll see whether that continues for November.

[Isotherm]

As long as we have seasonable (normal) cold temps this winter, we'll be just fine. You don't want that polar vortex too far south anyway… remember last winter folks. Even though we had above normal snow amounts, there were also many times that the intense cold air squashed potential snowstorms to the south of us. With the EL Nino looking like its finally rounding into shape, we should have plenty of storm potentials. Unlike last year when we had snow down to the coast, I feel this winter we will have mixing issues along the coast at times, but we'll see.

Nuts,

Totally agree with you and the ENSO starting to warm up (region3.4)is a good sign as well as the GOA - I think it turns after all the upwelling from all those typhoons that recurved up into that region quells. We have time and Tom (Isotherm- btw he is a great and I mean great met and thanks for joining this board) has said it perfectly - the transition period - end of Nov into mid Dec will tell us to a certain degree where we will be at for winter and the years he has mentioned all had a warm fall and then flipped - 79-80 sucked snowfall wise but was cold - I'll take 2009-10, 1977-78 and 203-04 any day of the week and would out my house up for those winters.

If I were in NE with the EURO weeklies I start to get pissed because NOv starts winter for those folks - not CT coastal but up in the NW parts.

The coast should mix this winter if all goes according to climo -  talk about an anomaly the past number of years - as a kid in the 70's and 80's they always had a mix to rain in most of these storms just like the climo shows but as of recent times they have been the jackpot. Maybe the pendulum will swing back this way.  Normal cold is fine - the PV did a number on all of the storms from Feb 18 until March 22 if you recall - 6 storms and SNJ (forget them) jackpotted big time - as did DE and MD.  We have time and Mother Nature will do her job - whatever that may be.

DT releases his official winter forecast this weekend - I think Sunday - way to early IMO - I like mid to late November - usually Tday for it because then you really start to see what is what.

Looks like the Euro OP and Ensembles are in two different states - time will tell still 4 days away.  Anyway wet and cool, chilly next week - my grass and the reservoirs could use a good light to moderate rain - be careful what I wish for I know.

Thanks mugs! Glad to be here with everyone. I agree w/ your points. I think it's foolhardy to release a winter forecast prior to November 15th, but if someone can do it and do it well, then more power to you. For me, I feel much more comfortable waiting until the third week or so of November and that's what I plan to do this year as per usual. Might as well get as much fall data as you can to increase the probability of an accurate LR call.

[amugs]

Can you imagine this set up - saw this on another board and I thought I'd share.

[Isotherm]

Region 3.4 up to +0.62. Region 4 up to +0.88.



Making progress folks.



http://www.bom.gov.a...ookmark=nino3.4



Daily SOI of -25 and 90 day running average now down to -8. We're undoubtedly in Nino territory. October will be the 4th consecutive -SOI month, and given statistics, that's a nearly 100% indicator of an ensuing El Nino event.



https://www.longpadd...cillationindex/

[Isotherm]

Yeah mugs that's the golden arctic outbreak set-up for us. Would love to see a week with highs temps in the 10s and lows sub zero w/ 3 feet of snow on the ground. If I said that in public I'd probably be institutionalized.

[jmanley32]

Yikes, I know no one really pays attention to CMA but wow.

[jmanley32]

A little too close for comefort if that were to happen sheesh. On its own at this time.

[algae888]

Jman we pay attention to the CMC and the other models just not 200 hours on out

[algae888]

the lack of cold air is very concerning.the Euro weeklies show very mild air into mid-november. nws 14 day forecast is also very warm. the Pacific Northwest has storm after storm lined up when it's supposed to be dry. I see there is a lot of cold air well to our north but we need a mechanism to bring it into our area. I know we have a lot of good indicators for this winter and that the weather can change on a dime but getting a little nervous now.

[jmanley32]

Al that's not the cmc it's the cma the Chinese moxel. I've never seen anyone post it.

[algae888]

Al that's not the cmc it's the cma the Chinese moxel. I've never seen anyone post it.

                 My bad jman but I don't think anybody on here takes any model seriously 200 hours +.

[jmanley32]

No I was just sharing I'm aware most likely bogus. Hey give me a bit credit I'm not posting 384 anymore lol.

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