Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

by nancy-j-s Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:38 am

at least, for me, this board becomes more active and I get to enjoy all the wisdom and humor you all have to offer! Bring on winter!

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:11 am

Ha I saw that but did not check temps, hey its happened before, two years in a row actually around that time could again. I am more interested in next week, Frank its within 5-7 day now any thoughts yet? Models pointing at a strong LP coastal, CMC of course strongest( for once its not the GFS being ridiculous).

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:15 am

I know to take something 15 days away with less than a grain of salt, but do temps even come close to supporting a snow event. I wouldn't think so unless we have a sudden cool down. Snowmageddon 2? I lost power for 2 days that snow tore branches and trees down all over, its bad when we have snow (even a few inches) with leaves on the trees. Yes lets see when TWC and accuwx mention this, if its only one run then probably won't. FWIW farmers almanac says for that timeframe halloween plays a trick: stormy weather. Yeah I know real specific lol.

by **amugs** Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:00 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Let the hype begin.

TWC will start it. Accuweather will finish it.

KOD by both and no way in hell do we want this - last time we torched all winter!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:36 am

mugs is that a given? If we get snow in october or early november we will be warm all winter? I do not see how thts possible to know, it probably won't happen anyways. GFS has been less than helpful all year.

by **amugs** Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:48 pm

GFS is in dire need of the upgrade - the algorithms from what I read need to be tweaked for the changing atmospheric condition
.
No it is not a given just a historical memory factoid on my part.

With this I can recall in 2003 October 23rd when I was coaching soccer at my hs it began to sleet and snow - nothing of accumulation but that winter 03-04 was a good one - snowed 2x in Dec before xmas and had a good amount of storms.

by **amugs** Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:16 pm

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753

From Accuweather - - ALL HAIL PAUL POSTEK!!

by **amugs** Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:55 pm

First Frost/freeze area wide of the season Sunday night??

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 23 Post-910-0-78214200-1413397935

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:52 pm

Frank made a good point on the GOA low possibly hampering the winter. I'm hoping its just a temporary anomaly, and we have a dominate +PNA regime. November will be telling.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:01 pm

Hey if we get cold like that that snow on the 06z GFS may not be totally outlandish, lets just hope if that starts to become a trend that it does not lead to a sucky winter, I would much rather a great winter than a damaging light wet snow event.

by **HectorO** Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hey if we get cold like that that snow on the 06z GFS may not be totally outlandish, lets just hope if that starts to become a trend that it does not lead to a sucky winter, I would much rather a great winter than a damaging light wet snow event.

LOL, everyone has been ruined mentally by October snow. Coincidence isn't on our side when it comes to snow in October, but please hold off. I don't want snow in October or November, let fall be fall. I don't mind a little crisp in the air but at least hold off until december with the snow lol.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:34 pm

HectorO wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey if we get cold like that that snow on the 06z GFS may not be totally outlandish, lets just hope if that starts to become a trend that it does not lead to a sucky winter, I would much rather a great winter than a damaging light wet snow event.

LOL, everyone has been ruined mentally by October snow. Coincidence isn't on our side when it comes to snow in October, but please hold off. I don't want snow in October or November, let fall be fall. I don't mind a little crisp in the air but at least hold off until december with the snow lol.

I agree. I'm big as a snow fan as anyone in this chatroom, but it can wait till december and beyond.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:37 pm

Have no fear, even if that image of the 6z GFS was right, the surface temps and 850 mb temps would not promote snow. That October snowstorm from a few years ago worked with incredible dynamics mainly because it was a strong coastal low manufacturing its own cold air.

by **Quietace** Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Have no fear, even if that image of the 6z GFS was right, the surface temps and 850 mb temps would not promote snow. That October snowstorm from a few years ago worked with incredible dynamics mainly because it was a strong coastal low manufacturing its own cold air.

Info on that system is here if anyone wondered.
I remember getting power back on a day or two before the storm and was extremely surprised.
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2013/07-Nov-12-SurfaceMaps.html

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:18 am

Thats the Nov. 7th snowstorm im talking about the halloween snowstorm in 2011, the one you listed was in 2012, right after Sandy. But yes I can wait for snow until December, right before x-mas would be nice. So whats it looking like for this coastal that ALL the models are showing for around 144 hrs 23-24th, or is it too early still to analyze this? CMC shows a monster just off shore, GFS closer but weaker and Euro in between. FWIW the chinese model shows it too (is that model not trusted, no one ever talks about it).

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:38 am

Yea, im looking into next week right now. Time frame looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday. My problem with this storm is that the ridge axis is over the Midwest. Usually we like to see it in the western US. Theres also a kicker entering the Pacific NW which might speed the flow up to much for any organized storm to form. Right now im thinking theres a real threat, but some things have to change in order for it to be an impactful storm. Not sure it happens. Im thinking weak coastal for now.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:14 pm

Ok a lot could change or not still a bit far out as u have explained to pin anything down.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:21 pm

Okayyy, CMC goes haywire on the storm possibility next week, it gets a 989mb low to do a double loop around right off LI coast, 720 degrees intoa fujiwara effect at the end, starting around 138hrs. Check this out (not that I believe it, what would even make a system do such a thing?) If that did happen count me in on one of those rediculous bets you guys have in the winter but ill do it i nthe fall lol.

I cant even post pics as won't do its oddity justice so here is the link top loop, some bad winds there.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014101612/gem_mslp_uv850_atl.html

by **sroc4** Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:41 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Okayyy, CMC goes haywire on the storm possibility next week, it gets a 989mb low to do a double loop around right off LI coast, 720 degrees intoa fujiwara effect at the end, starting around 138hrs. Check this out (not that I believe it, what would even make a system do such a thing?) If that did happen count me in on one of those rediculous bets you guys have in the winter but ill do it i nthe fall lol.

I cant even post pics as won't do its oddity justice so here is the link top loop, some bad winds there.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014101612/gem_mslp_uv850_atl.html

Fantasy most def, although I discount nothing. That being said this is how I felt after watching that run JMan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDRrjFjJ9fI

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:52 pm

OMG sroc you make me laugh so hard I made myself chock LOLOLOLOL my coworkers came running because I have never laughed like that at work before. Yes I agree, that was awesome! One of my fav movies too. CMC is known for its crazy runs but its not as far off in time as some crazy runs usually are, as frank said its a def threat but a weak low at this time. IMO itsd always best to be prepared for the worst and home for the best but I guess Frank likes to start easy and then if worse comes he will point it out. Still laughing inside.

by **Math23x7** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:24 pm

The 12Z EURO also has an east coast low that loops, but it is MUCH WEAKER than what the 12Z CMC has.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:27 pm

Wow thats crazy, anyone care to enlighten me on how a storm would make a 720 degree lopp de-loop like that? So if Eutro and CMC show it I think its a possibility, like sroc said don't discount anything. And Euro always shows weaker, but tends to trend upwards, we will see.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:27 pm

I'll take that CMC model run in December please! Shocked

by **Quietace** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:44 pm

Math23x7 wrote:The 12Z EURO also has an east coast low that loops, but it is MUCH WEAKER than what the 12Z CMC has.

Interesting chance for a coastal system. GEM is much more consolidated and stronger at 500mb level than Euro, but thats to be expected. Dry pattern may be over.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:50 pm

Nutley, I agree but some wild fall noreaster will be cool too, Imagine a swirling dose of snow over a few days, OMG! Ace It would be cool to see something like the CMC happen, lets see where the models trend. Shoot none of them have been great, maybe the CMC could get something right for once lol.

by **Math23x7** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:53 pm

jman, sorry to say this but according to the CMC and EURO, the 850 mb temperatures and the surface temperatures will be too warm for snow for the duration of this storm.

by **sroc4** Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:OMG sroc you make me laugh so hard I made myself chock LOLOLOLOL my coworkers came running because I have never laughed like that at work before. Yes I agree, that was awesome! One of my fav movies too. CMC is known for its crazy runs but its not as far off in time as some crazy runs usually are, as frank said its a def threat but a weak low at this time. IMO itsd always best to be prepared for the worst and home for the best but I guess Frank likes to start easy and then if worse comes he will point it out. Still laughing inside.

LOL I have to be honest I laughed at myself while I was fining that you tube video.

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