Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[Math23x7]

jman, sorry to say this but according to the CMC and EURO, the 850 mb temperatures and the surface temperatures will be too warm for snow for the duration of this storm.

[sroc4]

OMG sroc you make me laugh so hard I made myself chock LOLOLOLOL my coworkers came running because I have never laughed like that at work before.  Yes I agree, that was awesome!  One of my fav movies too. CMC is known for its crazy runs but its not as far off in time as some crazy runs usually are, as frank said its a def threat but a weak low at this time. IMO itsd always best to be prepared for the worst and home for the best but I guess Frank likes to start easy and then if worse comes he will point it out.  Still laughing inside.

LOL I have to be honest I laughed at myself while I was fining that you tube video.

[Quietace]

Yea, im looking into next week right now. Time frame looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday. My problem with this storm is that the ridge axis is over the Midwest. Usually we like to see it in the western US. Theres also a kicker entering the Pacific NW which might speed the flow up to much for any organized storm to form. Right now im thinking theres a real threat, but some things have to change in order for it to be an impactful storm. Not sure it happens. Im thinking weak coastal for now.

Agree, Not exactly what we are looking for a strong EC low...though if its given time to organize over the Atlantic, by a slower ULL in the Pacific things could develop. Well just wait and see how the pattern materializes over the next day or so.

[jmanley32]

Oh no math you misunderstood, I meant if this were to happen in the winter imagine if it was a snowstorm, we would be buried and blizzard for more than a day.  I know this event if it happenes next week, would just be a strong wind and rain event if the CMC verified (or weaker if goes other direction).  No snow in October, we already established that LOL, although if it happens I do not control mother nature so you all can't blame me (that GFS run with the snow was just a snaffu).  Sroc your funny keep em coming.

[Quietace]

12z EPS MSLP Mean at 144

[jmanley32]

So Ace, when they say anomoly I know they mean difference from normal, so that shows -10.5 at the darkenst, so -10.5 from what pressure?  I amways wondered, and this may sound like a stupid question what a normal pressure was. And remind me thats a negative or positive tilt in the trough? This would be a good setup for a coastal wouldn't it, or do we want it tilted the other way, sorry I need a refresher from last year.

[amugs]

[amugs]

[jmanley32]

Yeah mugs then it curls around like cmc but to a lesser extent intensity wise, goes on for a lot longer than that and gets closer almost backing up.

[jmanley32]

Dayummm, many of the Euro ensembles (50 stamp) show this system stalling or looping for damn near 3 days! Starts around day 5 and some of then don't get it completely out of the area until day 8 or so, thats crazy.  That would be nuts.  What would be dring this system to do that, I am sorry to keep asking but thats over my head on how that would happen or is it just doing its thing on the models?

[sroc4]

Dayummm, many of the Euro ensembles (50 stamp) show this system stalling or looping for damn near 3 days! Starts around day 5 and some of then don't get it completely out of the area until day 8 or so, thats crazy.  That would be nuts.  What would be dring this system to do that, I am sorry to keep asking but thats over my head on how that would happen or is it just doing its thing on the models?

Jman the reason we are seeing this on the surface is because another huge upper level low cuts off from the main flow. I am at work right now other wise Id post the image. But its in the 500mb charts that answers your question. Ill be home in about 45 mins and I will post an image. Go to the Euro and look at hr 168. A HUGE ULL that is completely cutoff from the main flow. The cuttoff ULL meanders until as series of short wave energy digs in from northern canada to open up the ULL and move things along.

[sroc4]

Let me know if the image can be viewed????

[img][/img]

[jmanley32]

Does wxbell show 500mb maps, I cannot seem to find them for Euro, thanks sroc, I will wait for your post but no rush we are still 5-7 days out. Man if this was winter this place would be sleepless from now till next Wednesday lol.

[jmanley32]

Its tiny but you can open it up, so let me see if I get this right, thats sitting over the area and the other low is meandering around being pushed by that ULL thats stuck there?  Are the 500mb maps are above or below the other maps that show the system looping, I assume thats the surface and this one you show is higher up and pushing that one around?  Is this a possibility, would be first time I remember seeing something like that, would be a very prolonged period of high winds as the passes are made and CMC shows a ton of wet (9-12 inches for southern MA (OMG if that was snow, yes I know it won't but if it was winter I think you would hear all of us all over the tri-state, especially in 3-4 days if it showed the same thing, lol)! I highly doubt that amount of rain but multiple passes of a low could do a lot of rain), although the Euro does not show the rain but shows a lot of wind.

Update: I found the 500 maps, wow that ULL sticks around a LONG time, if this were to play out could be quite a situation, IMO.

[sroc4]

Its tiny but you can open it up, so let me see if I get this right, thats sitting over the area and the other low is meandering around being pushed by that ULL thats stuck there?  Are the 500mb maps are above or below the other maps that show the system looping, I assume thats the surface and this one you show is higher up and pushing that one around?  Is this a possibility, would be first time I remember seeing something like that, would be a very prolonged period of high winds as the passes are made and CMC shows a ton of wet (9-12 inches for southern MA (OMG if that was snow, yes I know it won't but if it was winter I think you would hear all of us all over the tri-state, especially in 3-4 days if it showed the same thing, lol)! I highly doubt that amount of rain but multiple passes of a low could do a lot of rain), although the Euro does not show the rain but shows a lot of wind.

The energy embedded in the spin of an ULL is what generates the surface low pressure. So when the ULL moves the center of the surface LP moves accordingly. Open this link. Save this link to your favorites. It has a ton of great info.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/2/

[jmanley32]

Looks like it moves in and closes off at about 150hrs and doesnt move out until 216 completely. Thats 2.75 days, about what I said. 150 isnt so far off, 216 is still to far out in time to really know that.

[jmanley32]

Hence the rotation which is esentially around the lower half of the ULL.  I marked it thanks. Looks like all 3 models have the ULL in the same general place, I found all three main model 500 maps. From what I read on that page you sent me ULL can lead to a bust forecast, so in this case what is the thought so far with the way the surface low is with the ULL?

[sroc4]

Too early to tell plus I haven't looked at any details anyway. Before looking at surface details I want to see upper level patter consistency. I will prob just look at the general trends until the weekend. Then look at the details.

[jmanley32]

Probably a good idea, but lets assume that CMC is even close to right, are we looking at a damaging wind event or just some gusty winds? I can see clearly what it thinks for rain which is insane east of us. I noted winds just off shore pushing 50kts+ a nudge west would put those over us for prolonged periods in waves as the LP rotates. If the Euro varifies it appears the strongest winds fly in with the departure of the system. I am just wondering if I will be seeing a lot of scary monsters flying past my windows next week lol (decorations in case you didn't get it) LOL.

[Frank_Wx]

Euro ensemble members have this storm all over the place with varying degrees of intensity. I may do a blog on this. Would be my first blog since August.., wow

[jmanley32]

Yeah that was posted a page or so back, seems to be a bit of a train of then from Jersey shore up to LI, thats the only place I really see any consolidation, otherwise like you said ALLLL over the place. But generally in the area. A blog would be cool, will wait to see if you do so, I would imagine in a few days though when it gets closer right?

[Frank_Wx]

Yeah that was posted a page or so back, seems to be a bit of a train of then from Jersey shore up to LI, thats the only place I really see any consolidation, otherwise like you said ALLLL over the place.  But generally in the area.  A blog would be cool, will wait to see if you do so, I would imagine in a few days though when it gets closer right?

Maybe tomorrow night or Saturday morning

[amugs]

Interesting but all models have some sort of low cutting off and hanging off the coast with sometyp eof trop disturbance in the GOM.
Details to work out and we'll see what it does but for the love of god things are starting to pick up and make this boring dry pattern come to an end I hope for the next 5 months at least we have this.

[jmanley32]

Mugs I didn't think the system being shown in the GOM had anything to do with the LP next week, are they goijng to affect each other somehow? Models last night still show rebust rotating system. sroc "that was awesome!" LOL

[amugs]

Jman,

Just pooped one up on the GFS as usual but that is not the concern for at least I think now - this is interesting but we'll have to see what the 500mb show if they support this - interesting.

[jmanley32]

Lol I had seen it but I thought it was further in future. If those two things combined oh boy.

[Frank_Wx]

As the scroll says, next week is going to be relatively cool and probably pretty dreary with a possible coastal storm (still unknown whether it will be weak or strong).

The EURO Weeklies suggest the end of this month into the 1st half of November is going to feature above normal temps. When I create a winter outlook, I look back at what the Meteorological Fall upper level pattern featured and see if any of those characteristics could carry over into the winter. So far, I am not impressed. Though there are some positives, which include NH Snow Cover and Pacific SST's, that outweigh the Oct/Nov H5 anomalies. So all of this is taken into consideration. It is not so early anymore. November will be here before we know it.

Here are the EURO Weeklies, which by the way, I am not taking seriously until other guidances' hop on board.

Week of Oct. 27th:



Week of Nov. 2nd:



Week of Nov. 9th:

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