Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[jmanley32]

Lol I had seen it but I thought it was further in future. If those two things combined oh boy.

[Frank_Wx]

As the scroll says, next week is going to be relatively cool and probably pretty dreary with a possible coastal storm (still unknown whether it will be weak or strong).

The EURO Weeklies suggest the end of this month into the 1st half of November is going to feature above normal temps. When I create a winter outlook, I look back at what the Meteorological Fall upper level pattern featured and see if any of those characteristics could carry over into the winter. So far, I am not impressed. Though there are some positives, which include NH Snow Cover and Pacific SST's, that outweigh the Oct/Nov H5 anomalies. So all of this is taken into consideration. It is not so early anymore. November will be here before we know it.

Here are the EURO Weeklies, which by the way, I am not taking seriously until other guidances' hop on board.

Week of Oct. 27th:



Week of Nov. 2nd:



Week of Nov. 9th:

[amugs]

Frank - those are digusting IMO - Holy Hannah - the whole North American Continent torches !

[jmanley32]

Mugs breath, lets hope this changes!

[jmanley32]

12z NAVGEM shoiws a merge of the tropical system and the LP up here, would be bad situation as shown here at 174 hrs. GFS came in bit stronger while all models lost the multiple loops.

[Frank_Wx]

Update on Nino:

For the first time this season, all the Nino regions have reached the +0.5C plateau (the temp. threshold that classifies El Nino). Now it is just a matter of them sustaining and continuing to warm for El Nino to officially take off at the start of the winter. You can see how Nino region 3.4 warmed up nicely between October 11th and now.



Noteworthy also is the PDO region which looks quite warm. El Nino episodes usually equate to +PDO regimes as well. I will go over that in the winter outlook. The EPO region which was a crucial part of our winter pattern last winter is not quite as defined, but it has time to rebound once the typhoon season settles down which is causing upwelling.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GGEM, the most bullish model for a coastal storm, has a double barrel low idea which kind of looks like convective feedback to me. First off, as you can see from the graphic, it really digs the H5 energy into the trough (#2) and then phases it with another piece from the Great Lakes (#1). A coastal storm spawns off the coast. That is the way this should develop, not two sub 1000mb lows off the coast.

[jmanley32]

Wow, so the GGEM actually has something realistic, amazing lol.

[algae888]

Frank last October average 3 degrees above normal followed by a below normal November and a little above normal December. then we went into the icebox. I really doubt we will see the cold we saw last year however we do not need it to be that cold to have a good winter. we just need it to be active with storms forming in the right place and at the right time. this winter's pattern looks totally different than last years. specifically what you said that we should have a positive PDO and the high snow cover in North America and Siberia and more than likely a weak el nino. I think the key to this winter as others have said on here is the NAO. last year as we know it was positive for most of the winter but my gut is telling me it's going to be negative this year with fluctuations of course. it will be interesting how this all sets up. looking forward to your outlook. by the way Stevie D outlook comes out on Sunday but I have a feeling he's going to call for a cold and snowy winter in the Northeast which I'm not sold on yet.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank last October average 3 degrees above normal followed by a  below normal November and a little above normal December. then we went into the icebox. I really doubt we will see the cold we saw  last year however we do not need it to be that cold to have a good winter. we just need it to be active with storms forming in the right place and at the right time. this winter's pattern looks totally different than last years. specifically what you said that we should have a positive PDO and the high snow cover in North America and Siberia and more than likely a weak el nino. I think the key to this winter as others have said on here is the NAO. last year as we know it was positive for most of the winter but my gut is telling me it's going to be negative this year with fluctuations of course. it will be interesting how this all sets up. looking forward to your outlook. by the way Stevie D outlook comes out on Sunday but I have a feeling he's going to call for a cold and snowy winter in the Northeast which I'm not sold on yet.

Absolutely right Al. Last winter cold temps. were the least of our worries. Cold was around all the time. We just needed the storms. This time around, I think we might have to worry about the cold temps. but not so much about the storms. Reversed. But we'll see.

[nutleyblizzard]

As long as we have seasonable (normal) cold temps this winter, we'll be just fine. You don't want that polar vortex too far south anyway… remember last winter folks. Even though we had above normal snow amounts, there were also many times that the intense cold air squashed potential snowstorms to the south of us. With the EL Nino looking like its finally rounding into shape, we should have plenty of storm potentials. Unlike last year when we had snow down to the coast, I feel this winter we will have mixing issues along the coast at times, but we'll see.

[skinsfan1177]

Im still think central jersey will be in jackpot well I guess that's just wishfull thinking lol. Anyway I hope it doesn't get to cold early I rather have it cold in late December and jan. and Feb

[sroc4]

The 12z GGEM, the most bullish model for a coastal storm, has a double barrel low idea which kind of looks like convective feedback to me. First off, as you can see from the graphic, it really digs the H5 energy into the trough (#2) and then phases it with another piece from the Great Lakes (#1). A coastal storm spawns off the coast. That is the way this should develop, not two sub 1000mb lows off the coast.

I dont know Frank.  What so far seems to be consistent is that instead of just having one strong focal vort max as that piece that dives in from the GL and phases with the digging trough triggering a strong surface LP, it instead causes H5 to close off into a huge ULL.  As a result the vorticity seems to get all strung out within it instead of remaining consolidated.  I think the models are having a hard time placing the position and intensity of the LP on the surface because of that.  What I can see poss playing out is initially a surface LP develops as the energy phases, but once H5 closes off the surface LP never intensifies, and actually trys to jump around depending on where the strongest vorticity occurs.  Underneath the center of the broad ULL its going to be hard to get a whole lot of significant convection, but rather the main convection stays well offshore, and enhances precip well up into NE ie: NE Ct, Mass and Maine.  If the ULL closes off as large as has been recently modeled I cant see how it will develop one strong consolidated surface LP at all, nor two sub 1000mb LP like the CMC, but I can see where multiple areas of weak LP centers try to develop but never get going in response to the strung out vorticity embeded with the H5 ULL.

[Isotherm]

There are certain patterns that you "want" to see in November in terms of foretelling an ensuing favorable pattern for DJF, but there are quite a few cases in which November's pattern falls in the unfavorable category, yet the DJF periods still turned out good. In those cases, generally < 35% of the time, one will see the regime beginning to transition toward the end of November into early December. 2009 is a good example of this. Other cases in which the November pattern was generally unfavorable, but improved for the winter:



2003-04

2009-10

1979-80

1986-87

1977-78



These aren't all of them, but some of the notable scenarios. One should notice that the majority of these years were either El Nino or warm neutral patterns, and that is not a coincidence. El Nino atmospheric regimes are sometimes delayed in the development of tropospheric blocking.


There's a healthy westerly wind bursting progged to occur w/ solid -SOI over the next week-10 days, which should warm the western ENSO regions. Most data I've seen suggests a 3.4 based event, possibly region 4, while regions 1+2 are progged to be the coolest.













So right now I'm far from concerned about the winter. The first half of November, while I'd "like" to see a certain pattern, it's less important than the progression that occurs in the second half of November into early December.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GGEM, the most bullish model for a coastal storm, has a double barrel low idea which kind of looks like convective feedback to me. First off, as you can see from the graphic, it really digs the H5 energy into the trough (#2) and then phases it with another piece from the Great Lakes (#1). A coastal storm spawns off the coast. That is the way this should develop, not two sub 1000mb lows off the coast.

I dont know Frank.  What so far seems to be consistent is that instead of just having one strong focal vort max as that piece that dives in from the GL and phases with the digging trough triggering a strong surface LP, it instead causes H5 to close off into a huge ULL.  As a result the vorticity seems to get all strung out within it instead of remaining consolidated.  I think the models are having a hard time placing the position and intensity of the LP on the surface because of that.  What I can see poss playing out is initially a surface LP develops as the energy phases, but once H5 closes off the surface LP never intensifies, and actually trys to jump around depending on where the strongest vorticity occurs.  Underneath the center of the broad ULL its going to be hard to get a whole lot of significant convection, but rather the main convection stays well offshore, and enhances precip well up into NE ie: NE Ct, Mass and Maine.  If the ULL closes off as large as has been recently modeled I cant see how it will develop one strong consolidated surface LP at all, nor two sub 1000mb LP like the CMC, but I can see where multiple areas of weak LP centers try to develop but never get going in response to the strung out vorticity embeded with the H5 ULL.  

We pretty much agree but are seeing it unfold differently. I do not see a strong surface low developing either, rather a broad level circulation with lackluster energy. In fact, the trough looks slightly positively tilted by the time it reaches the east coast, which makes me question the GGEM and Euro Ensembles even more. Right now, I like how the EURO OP is playing out this storm. Broad low level low bringing light to moderate rains over a 3 day period. The blocking north of the system is preventing it from moving out so quickly despite the trough on the west coast.

[Frank_Wx]

There are certain patterns that you "want" to see in November in terms of foretelling an ensuing favorable pattern for DJF, but there are quite a few cases in which November's pattern falls in the unfavorable category, yet the DJF periods still turned out good. In those cases, generally < 35% of the time, one will see the regime beginning to transition toward the end of November into early December. 2009 is a good example of this. Other cases in which the November pattern was generally unfavorable, but improved for the winter:



2003-04

2009-10

1979-80

1986-87

1977-78



These aren't all of them, but some of the notable scenarios. One should notice that the majority of these years were either El Nino or warm neutral patterns, and that is not a coincidence. El Nino atmospheric regimes are sometimes delayed in the development of tropospheric blocking.


There's a healthy westerly wind bursting progged to occur w/ solid -SOI over the next week-10 days, which should warm the western ENSO regions. Most data I've seen suggests a 3.4 based event, possibly region 4, while regions 1+2 are progged to be the coolest.













So right now I'm far from concerned about the winter. The first half of November, while I'd "like" to see a certain pattern, it's less important than the progression that occurs in the second half of November into early December.

Tom so what you're saying is we could be in a transition period where the upper level pattern is transitioning from neutral ENSO to +ENSO. This makes sense since the analogs you mention happen to be +ENSO years, so I do not think it is a coincidence those years features above normal temps. in the Fall.

[sroc4]

There are certain patterns that you "want" to see in November in terms of foretelling an ensuing favorable pattern for DJF, but there are quite a few cases in which November's pattern falls in the unfavorable category, yet the DJF periods still turned out good. In those cases, generally < 35% of the time, one will see the regime beginning to transition toward the end of November into early December. 2009 is a good example of this. Other cases in which the November pattern was generally unfavorable, but improved for the winter:



2003-04

2009-10

1979-80

1986-87

1977-78



These aren't all of them, but some of the notable scenarios. One should notice that the majority of these years were either El Nino or warm neutral patterns, and that is not a coincidence. El Nino atmospheric regimes are sometimes delayed in the development of tropospheric blocking.


There's a healthy westerly wind bursting progged to occur w/ solid -SOI over the next week-10 days, which should warm the western ENSO regions. Most data I've seen suggests a 3.4 based event, possibly region 4, while regions 1+2 are progged to be the coolest.









So right now I'm far from concerned about the winter. The first half of November, while I'd "like" to see a certain pattern, it's less important than the progression that occurs in the second half of November into early December.

Nice write up

[sroc4]

The 12z GGEM, the most bullish model for a coastal storm, has a double barrel low idea which kind of looks like convective feedback to me. First off, as you can see from the graphic, it really digs the H5 energy into the trough (#2) and then phases it with another piece from the Great Lakes (#1). A coastal storm spawns off the coast. That is the way this should develop, not two sub 1000mb lows off the coast.

I dont know Frank.  What so far seems to be consistent is that instead of just having one strong focal vort max as that piece that dives in from the GL and phases with the digging trough triggering a strong surface LP, it instead causes H5 to close off into a huge ULL.  As a result the vorticity seems to get all strung out within it instead of remaining consolidated.  I think the models are having a hard time placing the position and intensity of the LP on the surface because of that.  What I can see poss playing out is initially a surface LP develops as the energy phases, but once H5 closes off the surface LP never intensifies, and actually trys to jump around depending on where the strongest vorticity occurs.  Underneath the center of the broad ULL its going to be hard to get a whole lot of significant convection, but rather the main convection stays well offshore, and enhances precip well up into NE ie: NE Ct, Mass and Maine.  If the ULL closes off as large as has been recently modeled I cant see how it will develop one strong consolidated surface LP at all, nor two sub 1000mb LP like the CMC, but I can see where multiple areas of weak LP centers try to develop but never get going in response to the strung out vorticity embeded with the H5 ULL.  

We pretty much agree but are seeing it unfold differently. I do not see a strong surface low developing either, rather a broad level circulation with lackluster energy. In fact, the trough looks slightly positively tilted by the time it reaches the east coast, which makes me question the GGEM and Euro Ensembles even more. Right now, I like how the EURO OP is playing out this storm. Broad low level low bringing light to moderate rains over a 3 day period. The blocking north of the system is preventing it from moving out so quickly despite the trough on the west coast.

What do you see as the reasoning behind the weak broad LP?

[amugs]

As long as we have seasonable (normal) cold temps this winter, we'll be just fine. You don't want that polar vortex too far south anyway… remember last winter folks. Even though we had above normal snow amounts, there were also many times that the intense cold air squashed potential snowstorms to the south of us. With the EL Nino looking like its finally rounding into shape, we should have plenty of storm potentials. Unlike last year when we had snow down to the coast, I feel this winter we will have mixing issues along the coast at times, but we'll see.

Nuts,

Totally agree with you and the ENSO starting to warm up (region3.4)is a good sign as well as the GOA - I think it turns after all the upwelling from all those typhoons that recurved up into that region quells. We have time and Tom (Isotherm- btw he is a great and I mean great met and thanks for joining this board) has said it perfectly - the transition period - end of Nov into mid Dec will tell us to a certain degree where we will be at for winter and the years he has mentioned all had a warm fall and then flipped - 79-80 sucked snowfall wise but was cold - I'll take 2009-10, 1977-78 and 203-04 any day of the week and would out my house up for those winters.

If I were in NE with the EURO weeklies I start to get pissed because NOv starts winter for those folks - not CT coastal but up in the NW parts.

The coast should mix this winter if all goes according to climo - talk about an anomaly the past number of years - as a kid in the 70's and 80's they always had a mix to rain in most of these storms just like the climo shows but as of recent times they have been the jackpot. Maybe the pendulum will swing back this way. Normal cold is fine - the PV did a number on all of the storms from Feb 18 until March 22 if you recall - 6 storms and SNJ (forget them) jackpotted big time - as did DE and MD. We have time and Mother Nature will do her job - whatever that may be.

DT releases his official winter forecast this weekend - I think Sunday - way to early IMO - I like mid to late November - usually Tday for it because then you really start to see what is what.

Looks like the Euro OP and Ensembles are in two different states - time will tell still 4 days away. Anyway wet and cool, chilly next week - my grass and the reservoirs could use a good light to moderate rain - be careful what I wish for I know.

[docstox12]

Mugs, right on about the 70's and 80's climo.Areas N and W of the City invariably got more snow.This goes back to the 60's as well.The last five years have been amazing, areas S and E, and many times FAR S and E are getting clobbered by the heavy snows while areas 25 miles and beyond N and W of the I 95 corridor are getting a lot less.Look at Boxing Day.Where Frank is moving they got 7 inches while my Sister in Ocean Grove, 3 blocks from the beach, got 36 plus.Accuweather seems to think with their winter forecast more mixing on the coast but I will believe it when I see it.Until then, the trend remains until broken.

[jmanley32]

Been watching the Bermuda cam (on and off) most of the day (they are either in eye now or its past because u can hear crickets and the wind suddenly stopped, I think its the eye), so the thought is this week will be no big deal? Or still to early to tell? Did anyone else notice that the 12z GFS even had a tiny bit of snow all the way down to the coast, thats a load of BS. Bastardi said that usually when models show something strong that happens lol, if that were true we would have alot of bad storms.

[skinsfan1177]

For some reason I feel cnj and coast here will keep trending in that directions with weather we have been globberred with more than snow we had Sandy two years ago, even rain here two months ago I believe we got like 6 inches and point pleasant beach was under water again

[jmanley32]

So as of right now the only HWO is for Cape, MA, RI and top three counties of eastern CT, I imagine they will be into at least the eastern areas (we know Upton loves to wait until the last minute and Mt. Holly is in between) depending on where things setup, but NWS having HWO 4 days early to me means something, I may have to make a trip to the cape like our friend did last yr, unfortunently I have to work, but we do not know where it will setup yet (if it is a big deal at all, but they seem to think this is the first place with most chance as of now.  Do note the bold.  I know its not thie area, but the models placement of LP is so all over we could very well be in that dilema in a day or two too, or instead.  Looks like 500 mpa is still having a huge ULL over area for prolonged time frame.

A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM ARE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG
WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN...STRONGEST WINDS AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE COASTAL STORM. THIS COULD BE A HIGH IMPACT STORM SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

In regards to the trend of the coastal areas seeing a lot of snow I have noted this too. However I do remember as a kid much bigger snowstorms and more frequently.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GGEM, the most bullish model for a coastal storm, has a double barrel low idea which kind of looks like convective feedback to me. First off, as you can see from the graphic, it really digs the H5 energy into the trough (#2) and then phases it with another piece from the Great Lakes (#1). A coastal storm spawns off the coast. That is the way this should develop, not two sub 1000mb lows off the coast.

I dont know Frank.  What so far seems to be consistent is that instead of just having one strong focal vort max as that piece that dives in from the GL and phases with the digging trough triggering a strong surface LP, it instead causes H5 to close off into a huge ULL.  As a result the vorticity seems to get all strung out within it instead of remaining consolidated.  I think the models are having a hard time placing the position and intensity of the LP on the surface because of that.  What I can see poss playing out is initially a surface LP develops as the energy phases, but once H5 closes off the surface LP never intensifies, and actually trys to jump around depending on where the strongest vorticity occurs.  Underneath the center of the broad ULL its going to be hard to get a whole lot of significant convection, but rather the main convection stays well offshore, and enhances precip well up into NE ie: NE Ct, Mass and Maine.  If the ULL closes off as large as has been recently modeled I cant see how it will develop one strong consolidated surface LP at all, nor two sub 1000mb LP like the CMC, but I can see where multiple areas of weak LP centers try to develop but never get going in response to the strung out vorticity embeded with the H5 ULL.  

We pretty much agree but are seeing it unfold differently. I do not see a strong surface low developing either, rather a broad level circulation with lackluster energy. In fact, the trough looks slightly positively tilted by the time it reaches the east coast, which makes me question the GGEM and Euro Ensembles even more. Right now, I like how the EURO OP is playing out this storm. Broad low level low bringing light to moderate rains over a 3 day period. The blocking north of the system is preventing it from moving out so quickly despite the trough on the west coast.

What do you see as the reasoning behind the weak broad LP?  

Western ridge placement, +NAO, positively tilited trough, and lack of space.

With the ridge advancing east and an Atlantic ridge in place, I feel this storm does not have room to amplify even though it may close off. Hence why it sits and spins off the east coast over a 3-4 day period.

[sroc4]

The 12z GGEM, the most bullish model for a coastal storm, has a double barrel low idea which kind of looks like convective feedback to me. First off, as you can see from the graphic, it really digs the H5 energy into the trough (#2) and then phases it with another piece from the Great Lakes (#1). A coastal storm spawns off the coast. That is the way this should develop, not two sub 1000mb lows off the coast.

I dont know Frank.  What so far seems to be consistent is that instead of just having one strong focal vort max as that piece that dives in from the GL and phases with the digging trough triggering a strong surface LP, it instead causes H5 to close off into a huge ULL.  As a result the vorticity seems to get all strung out within it instead of remaining consolidated.  I think the models are having a hard time placing the position and intensity of the LP on the surface because of that.  What I can see poss playing out is initially a surface LP develops as the energy phases, but once H5 closes off the surface LP never intensifies, and actually trys to jump around depending on where the strongest vorticity occurs.  Underneath the center of the broad ULL its going to be hard to get a whole lot of significant convection, but rather the main convection stays well offshore, and enhances precip well up into NE ie: NE Ct, Mass and Maine.  If the ULL closes off as large as has been recently modeled I cant see how it will develop one strong consolidated surface LP at all, nor two sub 1000mb LP like the CMC, but I can see where multiple areas of weak LP centers try to develop but never get going in response to the strung out vorticity embeded with the H5 ULL.  

We pretty much agree but are seeing it unfold differently. I do not see a strong surface low developing either, rather a broad level circulation with lackluster energy. In fact, the trough looks slightly positively tilted by the time it reaches the east coast, which makes me question the GGEM and Euro Ensembles even more. Right now, I like how the EURO OP is playing out this storm. Broad low level low bringing light to moderate rains over a 3 day period. The blocking north of the system is preventing it from moving out so quickly despite the trough on the west coast.

What do you see as the reasoning behind the weak broad LP?  

Western ridge placement, +NAO, positively tilited trough, and lack of space.

With the ridge advancing east and an Atlantic ridge in place, I feel this storm does not have room to amplify even though it may close off. Hence why it sits and spins off the east coast over a 3-4 day period.

Looking at the Euro over night the operational and Ens seem to be in good agreement on one thing.  The surface LP, 500mp ULL center, and even up at 300mb vertically stacks.  If that truly happens that will allow the surface LP to deepen to 989MB like the Operational shows at hr 144.  If you look the vorticity at hr 144 on H5 there is a ring of very strong vorticity away from the center of the ULL coming in off the atlantic coming onshore over S Mass/Ct .  There is also a small jet streak at 300mb moving over top of that at hr 144 moving from E SE to W NW.  If it plays out like that this should lead to exceptionally high rain totals somewhere near S Maine and/or Mass coast. ie 5-8" as per this run.  The CMC and GFS do not vertically stack at all and as a result you get a much weaker broader system from surface to 300mb. The GFS and CMC have The center of the H5 ULL further off shore which prob correlates to the western ridge placement.  But if the Euro is corrct about the vertical stacking it should in theory intensify the surface LP way the Euro thinks it will.  IMO the Euro operational has been the most consistent with this, and its Ens are most in line with its operational when compared to the CMC and GFS operational/ens solns.

[sroc4]

I think the key is not the + NAO or Ridge in the west but rather just how large of an area closes off at H5.  The larger the area the more it disconnects from the main flow and meanders.  Then IF any kind of vertical stacking occurs determines intensification.  The smaller the area that closes off the more influences the ridge in the west and progressive flow in the east will have.

I think

[Frank_Wx]

I think what it boils down to is all this H5 vorticity trying to consolidate at the base of the trough and developing a potent storm. Anytime you have a rolling ridge in the west it becomes difficult for those s/w energies phase because of the zonal nature of the pattern. Will there be a coastal storm? Probably. But there's not a piece of guidance that shows it bringing high impact to our area. The most bullish model is the EURO OP so far, with about 1-2 inches of rain and some wind. But we'll see how this weekend trends

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