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August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

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Post by jimv45 Wed Aug 06, 2014 4:54 pm

Real bad Thunderstorm up in Hopewell Jct NY Quarter size hail and lots of damage around me hope all is well!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:11 am

@jimv45 wrote:Real bad Thunderstorm up in Hopewell Jct NY Quarter size hail and lots of damage around me hope all is well!

Hello Jim! All is well here. Was dry by me.

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Post by algae888 Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:11 pm

what great weather we are having. should continue thru at least Monday. here is nws disco...

STILL NO HOT WEATHER IN SITE THIS SUMMER AS THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE
NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN
NICER...WILL BE AN AIRMASS FEATURING DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AT THE
ONSET...EVENTUALLY GETTING MORE HUMID AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:55 am

I just need Friday the 15th to be nice, taking spirit cruise with work. I see the models are bringing wehatever that low is that develops up and it merges with either a front or another low to give us a few inches of rain on the 13-14, will this satay that way or is it possible Friday will be wet too?
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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:27 pm

jman Friday looks fine with a big HP moving in. enjoy the cruise
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:46 pm

Spectacular day at Seaside Park...80* with an ocean breeze! Traffic was crazy coming down even though we left early...I can handle the rest of August if it stays like this!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:08 pm

Looking like the rain will be more substanial that 1 inch, NWS showing on graphic 2-3+ inches. Not mentioning svr wx or wind though. Have not checked models but last ones I saw still developed the second low to at least 1000mb. CMC had like 994mb i think.
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Looking like the rain will be more substanial that 1 inch, NWS showing on graphic 2-3+ inches.  Not mentioning svr wx or wind though.  Have not checked models but last ones I saw still developed the second low to at least 1000mb.  CMC had like 994mb i think.

Here is Tuesday on the WPC

August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 2 Fill_99qwbg

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:35 pm

Days 2 & 3 combined

August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 2 D13_fill

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:43 pm

Worst of the rain will fall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Probably looking at a general 1-2 inches of rain for most people. Thunderstorms possible, non severe. Shouldn't be too bad and we could use the rain. Thursday into the weekend is when we can expect clearing, perhaps a stray shower on Friday. Next week could feature our warmest stretch of weather in a long time. We'll see.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:39 am

Yep, NWS HWO:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


Could have used the rain Saturday night, major 3 alarm fire near me arson by ateenager, started it in his moms house and it spread and destroyed dwellings to 35 people. That kid is in alot of trouble. To say the least!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:51 am

Sheesh, lets hope the CMC isn't right, not sure we need THAT much rain.  5-8 inches a bit too much for one night.  GFS and Euro more reasonable at about 1-3 maybe locally more like Frank said.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:54 am

url=https://servimg.com/view/18656045/121]August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc12[/url]
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:36 pm

This looks like a similar setup to the last storm that yeilded not much but this one looks to put down alot of rain but the NWS discussion now has brought back the slight idea of tornado if ingrdients come together perfectly. Unlikely but we will see. Nonetheless looks like we go get we t "it go rain!"
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:07 pm

This is like a fall/ winter set up with one low kicking up the westerly apps into Canada with a secondary forming and sliding up the coast in a ne direction. The rain will be heavy for some of us late tues night into we'd - LI doesn't clear out it looks until we'd afternoon.
If we get training which is possible then we could get IMO the 2" amount + for some of us.
Then thurs and fri mid to upper 70's and lows in the low 60's would not be surprised to see some 50's for those in the outlining burbs.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:04 pm

Mugs sounds bout right, NWS calling for widespread 2-4 inches in the flash flood watch I am under.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:09 pm

NWS Upton discussion: Mentions possible isolated svr storms maybe tornado, seems Jersey is mainly out of the picture.

THIS FORECAST MOSTLY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z
ECMWF...WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS. FIRST...DEEP LAYER S-SE FLOW
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED...
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS WHICH LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK EARLY ON. POP SHOULD
INCREASE TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT...AND LIKELY FARTHER WEST INCLUDING NYC METRO.
NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN OR TSTMS AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS SUPPRESSED...WITH MID AND UPPER
70S.

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING INCREASES TUE NIGHT VIA
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY.
INGREDIENTS THAT LOOK TO COME TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING INCLUDE DEEP MOISTURE WITH BOTH PW AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY
INCREASING TO 2 INCHES...AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TALL/SKINNY MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG HELPING PROMOTE
WARM RAIN PROCESSES...ALSO MULTIPLE SOURCES OF LIFT INCLUDING
THE APPROACH OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED/DIFLUENT
UPPER JET STREAKS...OROGRAPHIC LIFT VIA LOW LEVEL S-SE FLOW WITH A
40-KT H9 LLJ...ALSO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
LOW THAT DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF NYC LATE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A
RESULT.

A LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN TANDEM WITH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OR EARLY WED AFTERNOON. BRN BETWEEN
10-50...HIGH 0-1 KM SHEAR AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES FROM
SE-S WITH HEIGHT...LOW LCLS...AND LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA...SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO.
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Post by Quietace Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:08 am

12z Nam is a pretty outlandish solution. Forms a coastal low overnight and drills the area with heavy rains. Rgem showed something similar a few runs ago.
August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 2 Nam_to10

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:30 am

Dang what is that almost 5 inches for some areas, its not far off so the NAM is usually pretty good within 24 hrs.  We will see could be a wet night and a very hectic morning commute.  Just imagine if this was snow with 20:1 ratios ha! : )
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:34 am

I hope we at least get some type of thunder or lightning to make this a little interesting. Flodding is just not fun in any way shape or form.
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Post by Quietace Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:01 am

Heavy rain near DC and Baltimore moving north east
August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 2 Rad_kl10


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:08 pm

GFS is not nearly as wet as some of the other models. The median is the best route to go, which is about 1-2 inches of rain for most with isolated zones, specifically west of NYC, 2-3+ inches.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:21 pm

Getting very windy here in the Bronx and westchester. To the south and west looks like quite a train of heavy rain is slowly moving north and east. Looks like will get into area, personally I think the rain will be on the higher end but we will see. Just my personal opinion, and going off the NWS hydrology page.
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Post by amugs Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:53 pm

Baltimore BWI 5.76" and pouring - imagine if this was winter???

Sporadic rain/drizzle up here at 74*.

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Post by Quietace Tue Aug 12, 2014 4:15 pm

Pouring
August 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 2 Dix_n013

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