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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:30 pm

@Snow88 wrote:12z GFS Snowmap

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 2 J7yypl

Nice. Wet snow bomb.

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:31 pm

And so NERN VT gets left out? haha
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:33 pm

Mets2695 wrote:And so NERN VT gets left out? haha

I'm still skeptical of this solution anyway, lets see what other models have to say. Especially the EURO

Here are the winds from the GFS

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_uv900_east_45

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:35 pm

HAHAHA, Weather Underground for Lyndonville, VT

Friday Night 70% Precip.
Cloudy skies early with periods of light rain and snow later at night. Low 33F. Winds light and variable. Chance of precip 70%.

Saturday 70% Precip.
Snow likely. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Saturday Night 70% Precip.
Periods of snow. Low 29F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:37 pm

12z GGEM still says no storm.

Ahhhh model mayhem. I have missed you.

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z GGEM still says no storm.

Ahhhh model mayhem. I have missed you.

Well now i can officially say, it feels like winter is back haha
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:59 pm

Wow, I was working and al lthis happened wow! That would be very bad repeat of 2011 but worse with all that wind. GEM has not really had a storm which is actually kinda concerning for me if GFS and Euro do and CMC does not. The GFS showed a similar solution days ago and IMO this may be closer to what is actually going top happen. We will see eagerly awaiting the Euro. One note, GFS has been crap this year, but maybe gets this one right. Thats a big wet damaging snow event to say the least.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:01 pm

I said this that this board is going to explode come this Wednesday and that as we have seen all along the globals have a tough time as they did last winter with these storms until 60 hours out and less in some cases - I still IMO like the idea for a coastal with this set up and that we have a changing pattern along with other players that will make this very interesting and exciting- that PNA spike is very impressive and the -NAO blocking is coming into place as well

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow, I was working and al lthis happened wow! That would be very bad repeat of 2011 but worse with all that wind.  GEM has not really had a storm which is actually kinda concerning for me if GFS and Euro do and CMC does not.  The GFS showed a similar solution days ago and IMO this may be closer to what is actually going top happen.  We will see eagerly awaiting the Euro.  One note, GFS has been crap this year, but maybe gets this one right.  Thats a big wet damaging snow event to say the least.

True but it mailed the storm last weekend - it may have needed a govt break!!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:04 pm

Those 900 level winds are scary, gusts would be over 60mph, And 6-7 inches of snow in westchester would break the record for my area from 2011 (along with alot of trees). Trying to stay calm but waiting patiently to throw franks blog out the window lol, jk. It was still very informative and still could be right, but I recall the last storm there was a similar OMG from you as a abrupt change happened on models and was close to right, so lets see. I can't buy one run just like any of us. One question Frank so it totally misses the southern stream and makes itself a storm no phase like we were expecting?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:06 pm

Well mugs if its right I better get to the store could be looking at no power for a bit.  This would be a major storm, in 2011 we had no wind and alot of damage.  Add 50mph plus wind gusts and 3+ inches of snow (6-7 shown in my area) and we have got a BIG problem. How long before the media panic starts, although it may be a reason to panic if the GFS panned out (well not panic but def prepare fora BAD storm).
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:13 pm

The GFS Ensembles are quite impressive as well. You can tell they want to pop out a solution similar to the OP.

Here is the NAVGEM model, usually a progressive bias model like the GFS and it gets the storm sub 990 mb

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 2 Fdd5hx

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Those 900 level winds are scary, gusts would be over 60mph,  And 6-7 inches of snow in westchester would break the record for my area from 2011 (along with alot of trees).  Trying to stay calm but waiting patiently to throw franks blog out the window lol, jk.  It was still very informative and still could be right, but I recall the last storm there was a similar OMG from you as a abrupt change happened on models and was close to right, so lets see.  I can't buy one run just like any of us.  One question Frank so it totally misses the southern stream and makes itself a storm no phase like we were expecting?

There is still a phase which actually results from the lagging cold front draped along the western Atlantic (the same cold front that will pass by here on Wednesday). The potent northern stream energy digs as a result of the western ridge and transfers the energy off the coast where the cold front is located to form a coastal low.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:18 pm

I think guidance is recognizing how impressive that upper level ridge is in the west-central US and its recent solutions reflect that

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:20 pm

Ok gotcha, does this have you concerned it could be right? And if it were am I rtight in saying it would be a damaging wet snowstorm (BTW the Wxbell snowmap is pretty close to the others you posted, 6-7 for southern westchester yikes! At least its on a weekend, but that doesn't stop the storm from wreaking havok.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:24 pm

Isn't there also a influence from the system in the west now that adds to the intensity this storm could have? JB hasn't started the media frenzy yet lol, probably waiting on Euro. If they agree, that would be a go for me. Of course still a lot of time to change, oh I love this its so exciting weenie a hoy!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:28 pm

You can see the linear dip around Nov. 1st in the NAO Index which usually signifies east coast storm

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 2 Ecmwf_nao_bias

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:28 pm

Frank how to you get such quick access to the ensembles, wxbell hasn't even loaded yet, yes if they are obn board too obviously thats a big sign. Gosh I am gonna have to finish my paper tonight so I can be all over this! LOL : ) Don't worry my excitement wether it happens or not I won't be upset, just the tracking and potential gets my weenie blood flowing. Forget the tropics nor easter time!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ok gotcha, does this have you concerned it could be right? And if it were am I rtight in saying it would be a damaging wet snowstorm (BTW the Wxbell snowmap is pretty close to the others you posted, 6-7 for southern westchester yikes! At least its on a weekend, but that doesn't stop the storm from wreaking havok.

It definitely has my attention. Wet snow and even just 40 mph winds would not be a great recipe for the area at this time of year

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:29 pm

SICK - HOLY HANNA's Banna' sthe ste up is something - huge PNA spike - Davis/Uber straight block - Momma Mia on the set up like I said before I like the set up.

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 2 F144

DOC, CP and SNOW - this delivers as progged - I keep the king king

Teh Ultimate KOD by me - hahaha!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank how to you get such quick access to the ensembles, wxbell hasn't even loaded yet, yes if they are obn board too obviously thats a big sign.  Gosh I am gonna have to finish my paper tonight so I can be all over this! LOL : )  Don't worry my excitement wether it happens or not I won't be upset, just the tracking and potential gets my weenie blood flowing.  Forget the tropics nor easter time!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:35 pm

mugs u so excited u cant even type lol. Holy snikeys is right. Havent heard from sroc wait till he sees this. Yes Frank would be a lot of problems with heavy wet snow and winds that high, and the way its showing now sustained could be 30mph. Its got my attention too lol, ya think? SO you are saying there is a lot more than just the GFS and NAVGEM run to promote this actual solution. Let us know when u get the Euro in, I don;t get it from Wxbell till way later in the day. They slow.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:38 pm

Wait gotta do it again for sroc (I believe he was the one who posted it for last storm):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDRrjFjJ9fI
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Post by Sunflowers138 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:40 pm

Heh Ladies and Gents!

I'm a lurker, but seeing these maps make me so excited for winter!

Any idea on time frame for the storm? I have a friend running the marathon on Sunday, should I tell her to pack a shovel? Haha

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:41 pm

The model shows it Sat into Sunday if I am not mistaken.
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