Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Frank_Wx]

I just hope the timing of the cutter comes on Christmas Eve and not Xmas Day.

[crippo84]

I just hope the timing of the cutter comes on Christmas Eve and not Xmas Day.

Haha...Christmas Day is meant for sitting around with the family relaxing. Christmas Eve is meant for shopping and travel procrastinators to get that last minute stuff done. I for one will be traveling late on Christmas Eve. Let this thing come on Xmas day when I'm settled into my final destination with spiked egg nog in hand lol.

[Frank_Wx]

Still way out there in la-la land, but that is one heck of a s/w digging into the SW CONUS on the 12z EURO. We have already seen the EURO a few times this season over-amplify these s/w's in the SW CONUS. It is also a known bias. The CMC/GFS for example do not do such a thing and there is no southeast ridge to speak of. I think with the blocking that takes shape after the X-mas Eve storm, that wave may be one to watch

[jmanley32]

Which storm is that Frank the one around the 8 day? I noticed another system out west that flattens and heads this way, but yeah def deems watching, some long range local forecasts like accuwx have a ice/snowstorm around that time.

[algae888]

Still way out there in la-la land, but that is one heck of a s/w digging into the SW CONUS on the 12z EURO. We have already seen the EURO a few times this season over-amplify these s/w's in the SW CONUS. It is also a known bias. The CMC/GFS for example do not do such a thing and there is no southeast ridge to speak of. I think with the blocking that takes shape after the X-mas Eve storm, that wave may be one to watch

frank people on other boards ready to jump after seeing se ridge on yesterday and now todays euro. even makes me consider jumping

however it may be a very good sign for us. euro prob over stating se ridge. with arctic driving south which usually forces stj far to our south, s/e ridge could prevent stj from getting to far south and keep lows closer to the coast and an active pattern for us. so we don't go from warm and wet - to cold and dry.

[Frank_Wx]

I don't believe that SE ridge for one second

[Frank_Wx]

Jman this is around the 27th

[jmanley32]

Yeah that's the timeframe I meant, 8-10 day, that's a long ways off, I wont even jump on that anymore, I have changed since last yr. in that 240 hrs plus is just too much time to change. even xmas storm even though it looks crazy could change a lot.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I've noticed through the years that long range east coast storms come and go on the models but these damn GLC's like the one shown for Christmas Eve will be there for the next 8 days and will happen just like predicted. Why can't it happen that way in reverse.

[skinsfan1177]

So as we are looking into the long range what im glad to see is that all signs are their for after xmas the pattern to change and I think it will . All signals from what I read on here going to be where we want them the AO,PNA,NAO which is great news. Im bumped out to over these next two storms but I keep saying to myself its only December

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I don't  why everyone is always so ready to write off December. It's a quarter of our winter, it has the lowest sun angles of any month, so it's one of the best time to have snow, and it's the holiday and Christmas season. Plus even NYC averages 5.5 inches of snow in December so it's not like we shouldn't expect it. This probably should be in complaining spread. I'll copy it over and delete from here.

[sroc4]

Via Al

I do not know if this should be here or in long range thread. this from steve d. other mets have same thoughts.

'Text book pattern change set up on 12Z ECMWF, likely a bit too far west with the trough though. Step one: send storm into the GL and set up new PV around Hudson Bay. Step Two: Carve out trough in Plains and drop Arctic air out. Step 3: Arctic air drops south and then east towards the coast. Step 4: interact with Sub Tropical Jet, buy more coffee

[Frank_Wx]

12z ECM Ens show a cut-off -EPO ridge, a -NAO, and the PV in the Arctic splitting and redeveloping just north of the Hudson. That is 'madonne' worthy. Also gotta watch for that storm signal around the 27th.

[jmanley32]

Social media already talking about xmas eve superstorm, here we go with hype, even making fake names for it santas something I forgot. It does look to be a crazy storm though.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hope it goes straight through Lake Superior and straight to the North Pole.

I detest these GLC's, they never do a thing for us except draw up unseasonably mild air and rain. They should be outlawed.

[Frank_Wx]

Hope it goes straight through Lake Superior and straight to the North Pole.

I detest these GLC's, they never do a thing for us except draw up unseasonably mild air and rain.  They should be outlawed.

Haha! CP, we actually want a cutter next week. It will do wonders to the pattern afterwards.

[jmanley32]

That's a complaint thread post lol

[jmanley32]

I recall very warm Christmas days and rainy conditions, however never such a extreme cutter storm the day before like the models are showing.  Wer shall see what happens.  Meanwhile I am off to give my final presentation and done with school till 28th of Jan woowooo!  Wish me luck.

[amugs]

Hope it goes straight through Lake Superior and straight to the North Pole.

I detest these GLC's, they never do a thing for us except draw up unseasonably mild air and rain.  They should be outlawed.

LMAO - I agree but as I have learned they are great for our pattern - ushering the arctic/cold air in and setting up a block.

How about this - MADDONNE is right!!

[amugs]

I recall very warm Christmas days and rainy conditions, however never such a extreme cutter storm the day before like the models are showing.  Wer shall see what happens.  Meanwhile I am off to give my final presentation and done with school till 28th of Jan woowooo!  Wish me luck.

Knock em dead Jman and remember to pause to catch your thoughts!!

[mako460]

good luck JMan, knock'em dead. Get it over with so u can start concentrating on some serious tracking,

[Guest]

Any chance this GLC actually turns into a Miller B where it re-develops and draws the colder air in earlier?

And by the way I joined this forum less than a month ago and all of a sudden Frank comes up with a new "banter" thread for whiners. Is that a hint?

[jmanley32]

lol syosnow, nah people do it a lot not just you. I def do, or have after a year on here you learn it doesn't help any.  I gave my presentation, i did ok.  Was way nervous and on little sleep.  Main part is the big paper which I know I nailed.  Also syo, according to Frank earlier no this screams warm cutter, a huge monster storm at that deepens to 958 over GL and throws heavy rain and verbatim very high winds in this direction, seems eastern side is the strongest (why is that? I would think around the center would be the strongest) won't say numbers because there is really no predicting winds like frank said but I feel like mentioning the possibility with the size, magnitude and strength of the santa superstorm they are calling it on social media...oh lordy lol

[Frank_Wx]

Per the 18z GFS...the EPO & NAO ridges make love. In other words, both of them connect in western Canada to produce a crazy block with the PV underneath it. 

[jmanley32]

Jesus 18z GFS has a sub 980 into sub 970mb system right over the area now instead of GL, placing us basically in the way of a land hurricane. Scary looking storm. 850mb winds over 100mph, shifted toward CMC run fromearlier, Frank is this suspect that this may actually come closer and really wreak havok on the area, even over the GL it appeared to do so. But this looks even worse, you can barely see the isobars spacing. I would say travel on tuesday. Accuwx already has a story and CMC is all over social media. Frank u saw the Bomb pic of the CMC, that was just too much.

[Frank_Wx]

I hope the CMC is false. We need a storm to cut to our west, not transfer off the coast

[jmanley32]

Frank I just mentioned the GFS jumped way east, so thats not good for our winter pattern, from what i gather. I don't understand the specifics on this but I am def wait for 12z's tonight if euro trends east we are in trouble in more ways than one.

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