Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Frank_Wx]

I hope the CMC is false. We need a storm to cut to our west, not transfer off the coast

[jmanley32]

Frank I just mentioned the GFS jumped way east, so thats not good for our winter pattern, from what i gather. I don't understand the specifics on this but I am def wait for 12z's tonight if euro trends east we are in trouble in more ways than one.

[Guest]

Why is a trend east bad? Does it have something to do with the cold air progged to come down after? Maybe I'm a little naive here but the further East the colder we are no?

[jmanley32]

I believe this monstrous system is supposed to change our pattern and if it goes off the coast the pattern won't change? Either solution has us in the grips of a really bad storm xmas eve if models hold at how intense it gets

[Frank_Wx]

Why is a trend east bad?  Does it have something to do with the cold air progged to come down after?  Maybe I'm a little naive here but the further East the colder we are no?

A powerful storm that cuts into central or east-central Canada promotes higher heights over the NAO region as long as there is blocking in the Pacific, which there is. It's a mechanism to jump start blocking on thr Atlantic side.

[jmanley32]

Social media "Santabomb" lol really? Yes it looks like it could bomb out 40-50mb and have huge wind effects across a large area, local forecasts for the area have rain wed-wed night with sustained winds 20-30mph obviously much higher gusts, and that continues for 24 hrs yikes. Ryan Maue likens it to the 1978 midwest storm, the jan one not the east coast one. Still 7 days out, I think the hype started this early because its xmas, usually hype doesn't start this early, BUT if it ends up bombing like this as large as it is it won't be hype, it will be serious for a huge area of the US, this is just my opinion, of course Frank will keep us all up to date on his expertise forcasting because more than not he is right.

[Frank_Wx]

Big rain maker on 00z GFS for Xmas Eve. Clears out with very cold temps for Xmas Day. Just for fun let's see if my storm shows up between 27th-29th.

[jmanley32]

00z gfs is a lot weaker than the past few runs, those hypers should probably stop until it gets much closer, actually was not expecting it to be that much less.

[Frank_Wx]

Probably not worth paying attention to 27th time frame now since models won't recognize the block until the Xmas Eve storm is out of here. Really hoping that 27th storm does not cut too (don't really see now it could as long as the Xmas eve storm cuts) but it would suck to end December that way

[jmanley32]

CMC looking very interesting, a coastal forming around hour 168, no cutter on 24th, strange.

[Math23x7]

The 0Z "Parallel" GFS on weatherbell goes out to hr 240 and it seems that at the end of the run it is, you guessed it, a GLC bringing another warm rain. We'll see what the 0Z EURO has in store.

PS: Frank, did you complete your last college final yet?

[Frank_Wx]

Mike tomorrow at 11:30am

Praise Mary Joseph Jesus

[Math23x7]

Mike tomorrow at 11:30am

Praise Mary Joseph Jesus

Tomorrow as in Friday?

[Frank_Wx]

No haha as in today

[HectorO]

Imagine if December had the temps November did. With all the moisture we had this month, we could have had a lot of accumulation. Would have had a snowpack goin on.

[Frank_Wx]

Not going to sugar coat it here..this was an ugly EURO run. Southeast ridge flexes it's muscle even during the 27th time frame. Granted there's no sense of getting worked up since this is well out in the long range, but I don't exactly like the euro and other guidance all showing this. 

One thing I've noticed is the euro loves to overamplify short wave energy in the southwest US. You see those pressure falls south of AZ? Anytime you have impressive digging like that, it's going to amplify the southeast ridge. 

This is a known bias of the euro model to dig too much energy in the southwest US. Hopefully that was the case thus run. 

Also notice the -EPO/-NAO combo per the image above. That indicates to me a southeast ridge should not happen. 

We'll see what happens. I'm hoping we can end this month with at least a minor snow event or a full on pattern change to lead us into January.

[docstox12]

Imagine if December had the temps November did. With all the moisture we had this month, we could have had a lot of accumulation. Would have had a snowpack goin on.

Indeed but Mother Nature just corrected herself with the very cold November temps.I always get a bad feeling with these early season accumulating snows, 2011, 1989.Would rather have mild October and November's, even up to mid -December, then cold and snow.We'll see how this plays out this season.That indicator CP came up with is pretty accurate ("as December, goes the winter) and right now it's looking pretty bad.That model Frank just posted with the SE ridge bodes ill!

[skinsfan1177]

Starting  to think maybe the pattern will take longer to change maybe January will be the month were it starts and we get the white stuff. Ill take it

[docstox12]

I wonder what the pattern was going into the 1995-1996 killer winter we had here.There was snowpack from late-November to early April.Seems to me you want the favorable pattern locked in by late November and not have to keep pushing it further and further down the line.

[Radz]

Imagine if December had the temps November did. With all the moisture we had this month, we could have had a lot of accumulation. Would have had a snowpack goin on.

Indeed but Mother Nature just corrected herself with the very cold November temps.I always get a bad feeling with these early season accumulating snows, 2011, 1989.Would rather have mild October and November's, even up to mid -December, then cold and snow.We'll see how this plays out this season.That indicator CP came up with is pretty accurate ("as December, goes the winter) and right now it's looking pretty bad.That model Frank just posted with the SE ridge bodes ill!

I agree, early snows don't seem to usually precede banner snowfall years, but even with that ugly Euro run, hoping we can pull this year out! But if a parade of GLC's really does come to fruition, i won't be too optimistic of a pattern change to a favorable snow producing Jan-Feb… fingers crossed the 27th time frame yields accumulating snow!

[sroc4]

Ahhh the long range.  THE LONG RANGE!  So ever frustrating!  Right now I am going to say that the awful SE ridge showing up is actually a good thing if we look at it from the perspective of the LR showed a potential bomb for Sunday into Monday and now it shows a whole lotta nuttin.  If we go back to late Oct early Nov and examine the LR we will notice that all the warmth that was advertised turned out to be much colder than advertised.  We had very transient above normal days, but actually ended up with a few decent storms.  The Thanksgiving storm is an example of how in the LR 7-14days prior did not end up verifying at all.  

Whats your point sroc?  I and many others on here have always preached that when there is a transitional period to the pattern the models will struggle mightily in the long and medium range.  Right now when I step back with my cup of coffee it looks like the upper levels are in an epic battle.  The -EPO (blocking over Alaska) wants to re-establish itself after Xmas.  
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The -AO (unlocking of the cold air from way up north) wants to re-establish itself after Xmas.
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The -NAO (blocking over Greenland) is trying ever so hard to show up....after Xmas.    
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 -EPO promotes the jet stream to ride up and over Alaska and dive into Canada and into the CONUS only after picking up cold canadaian air masses.  The -AO loosens its grip on the arctic air masses allow it to further want to head south towards the CONUS.  The -NAO sets up a block to our N and E overGreenland which typically promotes the flow off our coast to slow down allowing that cold air to build into the east and energy to consolidate along the coast leading to more potent systems along the coast. ALL good things right???

 BUT...there are also a few other atmospheric components that seem to be resisting.  
The PNA (ridge in the western CONUS) is still struggling to come out of the negative phase after Xmas.  But hasn't it been in the + phase which is what we want.  Yes, but all the other Teles have not been in the favorable phases.  (+EPO, +AO, +NAO).
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The MJO wants to come out of the COD and have another go round through phases 3,4, and 5 which are typically known as warm phases in the east.
Euro and Ens



GEF Ens



Canadian



Ukmet:


Here is the image which typically shows the temperature anomalies for any given phase of the MJO for the months of Dec Jan and Feb.  For instance typically when the MJO is in phase 5 and 6 the eastern half of the CONUS is in orange or above normal temp pattern.
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If the PNA stays neg does this mean that despite the -EPO can our polar disturbances dig enough to get into the EC and ride the coast or do they cut to our west or slide harmlesly OTS to our S as we are seeing with this Sundays potential??  

The problem here is that once again it is all in the long range right now.  All of these large general weather pattern phenomenon are battling against one another creating what is our overall pattern.  Do we remain in a state of flux all winter because of the constant battle or do some of the above features win out and the upperlevel pattern "locks" in and we get some consistency for an extended period.  I personally believe that we will get the -EPO, -AO, -NAO pattern that wwill ultimately win out.  But say for instance the MJO on the Euro comes to fruition.  Its showing not only phases 3, 4 and 5 but it shows them strongly in those octanes.  That would indeed promote the SE ridge formation as seen in the LR model projections.  Conversely if the GEFs come to fruition it is showing the same state of the MJO but much weaker in those Octanes which would mean less influence over the Eastern CONUS where the -EPO, -AO, -NAO could win out which promote cold and stormy in the E.  

Deep breath and...............mother nature is truly testing all of our patience.  The models WILL struggle in the LR and MR unless we can truly lock into a pattern; then I believe they may become more reliable.  For now Look at the LR and MR, and cont to take it with a grain of salt whether it shows something you want to see or don't want to see. This season should be a very interesting one to analyze after the fact.

[HectorO]

I wonder what the pattern was going into the 1995-1996 killer winter we had here.There was snowpack from late-November to early April.Seems to me you want the favorable pattern locked in by late November and not have to keep pushing it further and further down the line.

This is what I was trying to get at in the other threads, I wasn't trying to get anyone worked up I was just saying it's better to see some light earlier than later. December 1 we already pretty much canceled out the whole month amd waiting for January. We wait 3-4 weeks for a change if that doesn't happen in January then adios. Dec 24th looks interesting. Could be some thunderstorms for Christmas lol. And yes 11/12 was awful.

[docstox12]

There is a study to be done here,Hector, in comparing the patterns Dec 1 for all the snowy winters we have had.I would love to see the comparisons.As far as the December Prognosticator goes, a mild November sets up for a colder and snowier December and that gives us a snowy winter.This stuff all analog of course, but still interesting to me anyway.

This year the patterns are like trying to chase and catch a butterfly.Just when you reach it and think you've got it, it takes off again.Frustrating to say the least.

[Guest]

I wonder what the pattern was going into the 1995-1996 killer winter we had here.There was snowpack from late-November to early April.Seems to me you want the favorable pattern locked in by late November and not have to keep pushing it further and further down the line.

Exactly what I've been saying since I joined this forum. In a nutshell screw science and models. If we get cold and snow early it sets the stage and we get future storms and corresponding weather. The snowcover lowers temps and storms follow the same path. We haven't had that and I would Respectfully point out that many forecasts of upcoming storms and cold potential keep busting and being delayed. docstox12 put my feelings into words perfectly!!

[HectorO]

For sure. I can only remember once in the last 10 years where we actually had a good December with 2 storms and the rest of winter was a little flat. But for the most part you're rigbt. Goes back to what CP has been saying since the ABC board and he's been right so far. But like you said, winter happens every year so if this one turns out bad there's always next year.

[HectorO]

I wonder what the pattern was going into the 1995-1996 killer winter we had here.There was snowpack from late-November to early April.Seems to me you want the favorable pattern locked in by late November and not have to keep pushing it further and further down the line.

Exactly what I've been saying since I joined this forum.  In a nutshell screw science and models.  If we get cold and snow early it sets the stage and we get future storms and corresponding weather.  The snowcover lowers temps and storms follow the same path.  We haven't had that and I would Respectfully point out that many forecasts of upcoming storms and cold potential keep busting and being delayed.  docstox12 put my feelings into words perfectly!!

Talking about a pattern lock not really early snow. Early snow has been a curse for us over the past few decades. 2011 is an example. I think we were all spoiled by 08/09, 09/10 and 10/11. Those were 3 great years. I think this winter will resemble 11/12 but not as mild or snowless.

[GreyBeard]

Wow,just pop my head in here on occasion to get the skuttlebut. Haven't been in a while and boy how things have changed. Looks more like Easter weather on Christmas Eve with rain and temps approaching 60.

Don't see any more posts on pattern changes that Frank was hyping and his blog describing why that was going to occur has mysteriously disappeared.(either that or I can't find it).
Guys are saying wait until mid January or even February 'til things start happening.We shall see.

As I said I'm more of an observer here than a poster, but that's the vibe I'm getting. I'm also not it the best of moods as I took a fall in the shower Monday night and fractured rib #6 in the back. It hurts just to breathe. Wouldn't wish this on anybody,but on the up side, I've got more time to study the board as I recuperate. Sorry for the rant, regards and best wishes to all.

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