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Official Long Range Thread 5.0

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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:25 pm

Great signs on the tellies
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:48 pm

@WOLVES1 wrote:Jb said something about gfs ran an experimental upgrade and it showed a big storm. Does anybody know anything about this?

Well, in a few months, an updated version of the GFS is expected to be released to the public, presumably because of the low success rate of the "old" GFS. This new experimental version is privately available on sites such as weatherbell. On this run, the Catskills and northern Poconos get hammered with heavy snow this weekend. It showed mainly rain for NYC.

Also, at day 10, the "parallel" GFS (aka the experimental GFS) has a storm on Christmas, but it's a GLC.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:18 pm

Comparing hour 114 on 00z EURO to 102 on 12z EURO, I notice both the northern and southern s/w's are not as potent, but the Pac. s/w energy is further north and west which should benefit the western ridge.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:25 pm

Frank it looks like the 50/50 Block is holding strong too by hr 114 just E of Maine.  N energy interacting nicely.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:27 pm

CMC had it way further E by this time frame. Looks like trough digging and trying to go neg

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:28 pm

EURO struggles to come north this run. Energy is not consolidating enough at the base of the trough. Block up north was also stronger this run. EURO keeps showing inconsistencies at H5.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:29 pm

Ugg PNA looks like it collapses

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:30 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Frank it looks like the 50/50 Block is holding strong too by hr 114 just E of Maine.  N energy interacting nicely.

I like how things trended out west with the NW Pac energy slower, thus not crashing into the western ridge as quickly, but the block up north was stronger and you can see the EURO struggling to bring the low up the coast. 

P.S.- when I said the setup needs to be brought south on the last page, I was referencing the GGEM. Need 850 mb low south of our area. Not over us.

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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:30 pm

People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:32 pm

That is an impressive storm off the coast. I am not discouraged by this run at all actually. 150 hours out

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:34 pm

Well let's hope in the coming days it comes north on euro. Potent storm!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:35 pm

Dang bombs to 977 wow and this far out for euro to show that. I'm not too worried about position at this time. If this maintains that bomb out and is sound benchmark giggity!
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:36 pm

@Snow88 wrote:People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run.

Guys check out the Northern Vort over N Dakoda at hr 96. STJ peice entering Tx at that time. 24hrs later the S piece is entering Tn area where as the N piece is still over S S Dakota. Its being held back too much I think. If it speeds up by 6hrs it should really dig into the STJ and tilt the trough neg and bring the surface Low more up the coast.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:38 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run.

Guys check out the Northern Vort over N Dakoda at hr 96.  STJ peice entering Tx at that time.  24hrs later the S piece is entering Tn area where as the N piece is still over S S Dakota. Its being held back too much I think.  If it speeds up by 6hrs it should really dig into the STJ and tilt the trough neg and bring the surface Low more up the coast.  

You're right. It kind of gets caught in the ridge. Need it to go downstream

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:41 pm

Lets move discussions of the 20th-21st storm in the other thread

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:04 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run.

Guys check out the Northern Vort over N Dakoda at hr 96.  STJ peice entering Tx at that time.  24hrs later the S piece is entering Tn area where as the N piece is still over S S Dakota. Its being held back too much I think.  If it speeds up by 6hrs it should really dig into the STJ and tilt the trough neg and bring the surface Low more up the coast.  

Scott great point and I just watched that 5x on Stormvista and it seems screwy to me but then again we are way out - looks to catch the tail end at hour 129 of the Southern Vort but it is behind so it doesn't really dig into it - too late. That baby goes boom once it slides off the coast.
Question - wouldn't that +PNA ridge move this Northern Vort faster and have it dig into the trough - it just seems to hanging around up there in North Central Plains - hours 72-105 it is still up there before it slides down the ridge - this is what I meant by screwy but maybe I am not seeing it correctly what is holding it back is the question?


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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:25 pm

Miller A's love to come North and how many times do we see the OP lose their projections from previous days only to come back? Many times IMHO -. Euro showing a bomb off the coast which signals a deep LP and it comes to the BM then we have big time CCB bands setting up to its NW.

By Wednesday's 00Z, 12Z runs we will now more at the inside the 120 hours mark by then.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:27 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:People really thought the euro was going to keep the same solution? This solution is a lot colder along the coast with a big storm just offshore. Good run.

Guys check out the Northern Vort over N Dakoda at hr 96.  STJ peice entering Tx at that time.  24hrs later the S piece is entering Tn area where as the N piece is still over S S Dakota. Its being held back too much I think.  If it speeds up by 6hrs it should really dig into the STJ and tilt the trough neg and bring the surface Low more up the coast.  

Scott great point and I just watched that 5x on Stormvista and it seems screwy to me but then again we are way out - looks to catch the tail end at hour 129 of the Southern Vort but it is behind so it doesn't really dig into it - too late. That baby goes boom once it slides off the coast.
Question - wouldn't that +PNA ridge move this Northern Vort faster and have it dig into the trough - it just seems to hanging around up there in North Central Plains - hours 72-105 it is still up there before it slides down the ridge - this is what I meant by screwy but maybe I am not seeing it correctly what is holding it back is the question?

\

Mugsy I copied and pasted this over in the other thread. For this threat we will keep discussion over there.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:16 pm

Euro Ens mean by Xmas...was talking in my blog how I'm expecting something big to happen between Xmas and New Years

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 4 Ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:33 pm

Even bigger than this weekends potential, oh boy! We will be buried if both happen.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro Ens mean by Xmas...was talking in my blog how I'm expecting something big to happen between Xmas and New Years

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 4 Ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

That looks sexy

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:26 pm

So does this - shrinkage by George Costanza!! Cold coming down for xmas eve/xmass

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 4 Post-747-0-09564700-1418670858

Turn your head sideways to view!!

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 4 Post-747-0-70359300-1418670867

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:07 am

FWIW, the 0Z "Parallel" GFS has a storm on Christmas morning, but it's over Indiana, bring the I-95 corridor a rain event, with temperatures ahead of the system as high as 60 degrees. Though I think tomorrow evening's system and the weekend system will help to dictate this storm's path within the coming days.

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:38 am

Well, while we wait for the models to figure out this weekend, looks like bitter cold comes in after Christmas, NYE is going to be in the teens in Times Square. Glad I stay home with my munchies and adult beverages, oh and Dick Clark's Rockin' Eve!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:03 am

The period between Xmas and New Years continues to be an interesting one. This is when I think we'll officially be in our winter pattern. Keep in mind I've been saying all along the Dec. 20th storm is coming in a transition time. That storm, as well as another one around X-Mas eve, will help Jumpstart the pattern I'm expecting to dominate for most of the winter.

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