Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:13 pm

Still watching the clipper system around the 6th. Could be a widespread 1-3 inch snowfall for everyone, especially north of NYC.

by **algae888** Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:34 pm

yes here is total snowfall from sat and Tuesdays systems. I will take it in a heartbeat. Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 26 Gfs_asnow_us_31

would do wonders for all us snow weenies to have a few inches of snow on the ground and temps in the teens. a real wintry feel

by **algae888** Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:37 pm

look at all that snow in eastern Canada. they are having a great winter so far.

by **algae888** Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:44 pm

it would be nice to see that clipper move a little farther south and maybe form a low off the s/jersey coast to enhance snowfall. right now it's over eastern li. these systems tend to break up crossing the mountains but with the warmer than normal atlantic redevelopment is def a possibility.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:50 pm

algae888 wrote:yes here is total snowfall from sat and Tuesdays systems. I will take it in a heartbeat.

would do wonders for all us snow weenies to have a few inches of snow on the ground and temps in the teens. a real wintry feel

Yawwwwn. :-/

by **algae888** Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:56 pm

soul I know it's not much but look at the snow cover over northern half of u.s. we need to build snow pack it will help to keep surfaces temps down and set us up for better things down the road. plus just want to see a little white out there.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:23 am

algae888 wrote:soul I know it's not much but look at the snow cover over northern half of u.s. we need to build snow pack it will help to keep surfaces temps down and set us up for better things down the road. plus just want to see a little white out there.

I hear ya man. I just am sad we've got nothing formidable to track and it's Jan already. Winter without snow is like pizza without cheese.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:56 am

EURO and now the GFS really aren't playing when it comes to the cold they're predicting for next week. Could rival the major blast we had this time last year...?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:42 am

Yea, a piece of the PV is going to sink into our area and bring near record cold temps. to the area Wednesday-Friday next week. If we can get some snow out of the Jan. 6th clipper at least it will stick around for awhile. Would brighten the mood a bit. I

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:32 am

aiannone wrote:I will certainly do that! From what i'm gathering from the locals around there and some mets, i should be heading to just north of Syracuse or near Rome.

Make your home base east of Oswego and 30 minutes north of Syracuse. Draw a line from Syracuse to Oswego to Watertown and connect it into a triangle. the middle of that triangle is your bullseye.

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:57 am

Someone on this sight predicted an MECS and possible even a HECS somewhere between January 7th and 10th. (Mugsy?) How does this possibility look right now? I see on the NWS sight a few low pressure symbols near LI during the day 5 and 7 period but they look rather unimpressive at this time and so does the QPF output. Probably clippers. Any chance one of these blows up??

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:01 am

syosnow94 wrote:
aiannone wrote:I will certainly do that! From what i'm gathering from the locals around there and some mets, i should be heading to just north of Syracuse or near Rome.

Make your home base east of Oswego and 30 minutes north of Syracuse. Draw a line from Syracuse to Oswego to Watertown and connect it into a triangle. the middle of that triangle is your bullseye.

Oswego 23 inches from this last rather minor lake effect event and Watertown/Fort Drum 17 inches. Next week looks epic.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:43 am

syosnow94 wrote:Someone on this sight predicted an MECS and possible even a HECS somewhere between January 7th and 10th. (Mugsy?) How does this possibility look right now? I see on the NWS sight a few low pressure symbols near LI during the day 5 and 7 period but they look rather unimpressive at this time and so does the QPF output. Probably clippers. Any chance one of these blows up??

0% chance

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Someone on this sight predicted an MECS and possible even a HECS somewhere between January 7th and 10th. (Mugsy?) How does this possibility look right now? I see on the NWS sight a few low pressure symbols near LI during the day 5 and 7 period but they look rather unimpressive at this time and so does the QPF output. Probably clippers. Any chance one of these blows up??

0% chance

You have to be so honest?

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:53 pm

Lol yeah frank nothing is 0% 0.000001% To be safe lol

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:54 pm

The GEFS advertise the +PNA spike but with an H2/160kt jet it'll be difficult to try and maintain it. With the PV retreating north, the storm chances we see in the middle of the month may run into an antecedent cold air mass.

Attached Images

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:01 pm

The PV Split. Up through now the PV was one entity.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-96.51,72.30,340

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:08 pm

10 mb NH Strato per Euro from Day 2 to Day 6 shows how the warming shifts from Eurasia to eastern NH. From Day 6-10 it's concentrated there. Looks nice, but until it begins to show on our tropospheric H5 maps I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

Attached Images

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:The PV Split. Up through now the PV was one entity.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-96.51,72.30,340

That's pretty

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:11 pm

Looks like a pattern where it gets cold but no storms, then when the cold retreats storms, then cold again no storms and on and on till April.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Looks like a pattern where it gets cold but no storms, then when the cold retreats storms, then cold again no storms and on and on till April.

Thats one possibility.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Looks like a pattern where it gets cold but no storms, then when the cold retreats storms, then cold again no storms and on and on till April.

True, but come May we could get the big one.

May 10 1977 look it up, I lived through it.

A Trace a snow in NYC, 3-5 inches where I lived in the HV and one town in the catskills received 27 inches. It was by far the weirdest late season storm I've ever seen.

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:22 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Looks like a pattern where it gets cold but no storms, then when the cold retreats storms, then cold again no storms and on and on till April.

True, but come May we could get the big one.

May 10 1977 look it up, I lived through it.

A Trace a snow in NYC, 3-5 inches where I lived in the HV and one town in the catskills received 27 inches. It was by far the weirdest late season storm I've ever seen.

At that point hopefully not. I'll be knee deep in some catskill stream flyfishing for trout then!!

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:06 pm

Hey, Syno, I fish the Beaverkill at Roscoe, Cairn's Pool, Ferdon's Eddy, Horton Brook, Cemetary Pool and the pool by the Sunoco Station.Ever been there?

by Guest Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:19 pm

docstox12 wrote:Hey, Syno, I fish the Beaverkill at Roscoe, Cairn's Pool, Ferdon's Eddy, Horton Brook, Cemetary Pool and the pool by the Sunoco Station.Ever been there?

Been to em all Doc. I like to stay away from the crowds a little more than most though. If you're coming to the get together we'll talk some fishing it's my #1 passion. I've traveled the country flyfishing.

by **Snow88** Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:25 pm

GFS is further south and colder with the clipper. Nice.

by **GreyBeard** Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:39 pm

Was just looking at my forecast at NWS. Talk about a roller coaster ride,tomorrow chance of snow before 1pm,then rain and snow between 1 and 4,then tomorrow night all rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Sunday has all rain but a high temp.of 64 with thunderstorms,fog and wind gusts up to 46mph.Then on Tuesday, chance of snow 30% and Tuesday night 40%.After that temps. really start to bottom out,low of 10 Wednesday night. Pretty wild stuff.

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