Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Math23x7]

I looked at the CPC 6 to 10 day analogs (centered for January 8th, 2015) and one of those analogs is January 19th, 1994, which, to date, is the last CPK had a temperature reading below zero. I doubt that it gets that cold next week, but I thought it was interesting:

[amugs]

Winter outlook update coming this Saturday

I don't think it's going to be great news as we are hearing the signals going in the wrong direction and a warm up after Jan 10th

Last season I didn't have to make an update because everything was going as planned. Anytime I have to make an update mid-winter, it means something about the original outlook is not going as planned.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

When you look at your 10 day forecast and everyday but one has high temperature at freezing or below and the one day precip is predicted the projected high is 54, you know it's not your winter.

[Guest]

When you look at your 10 day forecast and everyday but one has high temperature at freezing or below and the one day precip is predicted the projected high is 54, you know it's not your winter.

Could not have said it any better if I tried!!

[carvin1079]

Where is the big warm up I don't see it on no whether blogs or sites please some one inform me

[HectorO]

The temp swings from Saturday-Monday are crazy. And is it me, or are sundays having a huge coincidence of being warm every week lol. City could hit 60s.

[algae888]

just found this on another board and do not know if I can post it here but I think it is very relevant to our winter failure so far so I am going to post it. my question to forecasters is did they look at data like this when putting out this years forecast? I know this is just the qbo and doesn't take into account the other signals that go into a forecast but this is a rather telling stat and it's indices were known going into this winter unlike trying to figure what the nao or ao will be.....

"A strongly -QBO (-20 or below) in the autumn has been mentioned by others on another board as a potential cause for a snowless winter in NYC. The reasoning goes that a very -QBO in the autumn promotes warmth in the stratosphere at the poles, leading to very cold conditions at the surface. This in turn strengthens the Pacific Jet, which in turn floods most of the eastern United States with warmer than normal, and less snowy conditions by locking the cold at the polar region. ESRL has QBO data going back to 1948, while OKX has snowfall and temperature records for NYC going back to 1868-1869.



http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data



Average snowfall for NYC from 1981-2010 is 25.8 inches.



SON periods with a QBO of -20 or below:



1965: -19.96

1970: -22.09

1972: -20.69

1974: -23.04

1979: -22.74

1984: -20.07

1989: -19.71

1996: -22.50

2003: -20.24

2005: -28.70

2007: -28.26

2012: -23.35



The resulting winter temperatures. NYC has an average of 35.2 F in the winter.



http://www.erh.noaa....annualtemp.html



1965-1966: 35.9 F (+0.7)

1970-1971: 32.2 F (-3.0)

1972-1973: 35.5 F (+0.3)

1974-1975: 37.5 F (+2.0)

1979-1980: 35.4 F (+0.2)

1984-1985: 36.4 F (+1.2)

1989-1990: 35.6 F (+0.4)

1996-1997: 37.8 F (+2.6)

2003-2004: 32.4 F (-2.

2005-2006: 37.3 F (+2.1)

2007-2008: 36.4 F (+1.2)

2012-2013: 36.8 F (+1.6)



The average out of all of the anomalies is +0.5-+0.6, slightly warmer than average.



NYC has an average snowfall of 25.8 inches.



http://www.erh.noaa....onsnowfall.html



1965-1966: 21.4" (-4.4)

1970-1971: 15.5" (-10.3)

1972-1973: 2.8" (-23.0)

1974-1975: 13.1" (-12.7)

1979-1980: 12.8" (-13.0)

1984-1985: 24.1" (-1.7)

1989-1990: 13.4" (-12.4)

1996-1997: 10.0" (-15.

2003-2004: 42.6" (+16.

2005-2006: 40.0" (+14.2)

2007-2008: 11.9" (-13.9)

2012-2013: 26.1" (+0.3)



On average, there tends to be 6-7 less inches of snow than a typical year in NYC when the QBO is strongly negative in the autumn.  



This is relevant for the upcoming winter, since the QBO has tanked in recent months, and is now at -19.28 for August. If it continues to decline for SON, and averages -20 or below, there is a greater likelihood of a warmer than normal, and a less snowy than normal winter for NYC."

well it did decline to around -23 in oct and nov.

if as others have stated we start with the stratosphere and work our way down then the qbo should have weighed heavily on this winter's forecast and have raised major concerns about a cold and snowy winter. what's hard to believe after reading this is that a vast majority of long range meteorologist seemed to have overlooked this data or dismissed it and forecast cold and snow for most of the east coast.. we now know that this winter is going to be a bust. I hope I am wrong about that!

[algae888]

not trying to punch holes just trying to understand why and if they overlooked this key signal.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Al great data. I hate what it points to but you can't ignore what's in front of your nose staring you in the face. At this point if we could salvage a normal  January through April of 20-25 inches of snow in NYC I'd be overjoyed. It would still leave us a little below average for the season but it would be a victory at this stage.

[docstox12]

CP, I wonder what the December Prognosticator showed in tandem with those very negative QBO years?

Excellent work, AL, a nice piece of statistical evidence concerning the very negative QBO.At this juncture, with the December Prog blown to bits and the very negative QBO, it will be great to just salvage an average winter at Central Park.They are due 20 to 25 inches, which would give us in the HV more.

CP, thank God we got that nice November this year.Could be the winter will be November up her,LOL!

[Frank_Wx]

Al- in my winter outlook update that I'm releasing Friday I have a writeup about the strongly negative QBO winter's of the 60's and 70's.

[Frank_Wx]

I could release it today but it's a holiday so enjoy and check back tomorrow

[aiannone]

Ok so I'm trying to figure out a lake effect snow chase next week. does anyone have any input on where and when I should go?

[Guest]

Ok so I'm trying to figure out a lake effect snow chase next week. does anyone have any input on where and when I should go?

Aiannone Book a hotel east of Oswego NY.  Somewhere between Watertown and Oswego near the Tug Hill Plateau.  No matter where the band sets up you'll be less than a 20 minute ride if you make this area your home base!!

[aiannone]

Ok so I'm trying to figure out a lake effect snow chase next week. does anyone have any input on where and when I should go?

Aiannone  Book a hotel east of Oswego NY.  Somewhere between Watertown and Oswego near the Tug Hill Plateau.  No matter where the band sets up you'll be less than a 20 minute ride if you make this area your home base!!

Thank you very much!

[Guest]

I highly recommend all you serious forecasters like Frank, Sroc etc; go onto the NWS site and click on the Chicago area. At the top they have a heading about the snow drought they're going through and what it means going forward. Click on it and look at all the stats and percentages. Really interesting. I know it's the midwest and theres no oceans to deal with but I believe our Dec. prognosticators are eerily similar.

[Frank_Wx]

Ok so I'm trying to figure out a lake effect snow chase next week. does anyone have any input on where and when I should go?

I agree with Syosnow. Somewhere near Watertown, NY

[docstox12]

Frank, two handsome,young guys! You've both got it made,Man! You might find a real "sweet" girl at Mars,LOL.

Anyhoo, NWS has me for a 1-2 inch front end up here before slopification/rain comes in.Guess I'll be watching late tonight to see some flakes.It's been a while.

[algae888]

bitter cold next week....

[algae888]

850's chrash all the way to florida...

[algae888]

well models certainly do not have a handle on mjo.....



euro has us in phase 5 for next two weeks cmc goes into circle of death and gfs has us going into phase 7.

[amugs]

Has anyone looked at the correlation between Nuri and Sandy and their affects on the atmosphere. There may not beven much but both were powerful systems that sucked the life out of the atmosphere in their prospective  regions causing effects   that threw the whole weather patterns in disarray. My thinking is nuri split the pv and it was not time for it to split thus causing a reconsilidation of the pv since it was an abnormal time for it to do so. Thoughts on this?

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, two handsome,young guys! You've both got it made,Man! You might find a real "sweet" girl at Mars,LOL.

Anyhoo, NWS has me for a 1-2 inch front end up here before slopification/rain comes in.Guess I'll be watching late tonight to see some flakes.It's been a while.

Thanks Doc that is my younger brother. He's actually a professional gamer. Over 50K followers on Twitter I believe. If anyone is interested in that sort of stuff PM me or start a discussion in off topic section and I'll give you his handle.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just make sure you're south of Watertown. The further north and east from Watertown you're much less likely to see heavy lake effect.

As someone mentioned earlier the Tug hill plateau which is east and slightly north of Oswego is usually the sweet spot. Although Oswego saw over 100 inches from a lake effect over several days in the 1960's.

If you go Alex take lots of pictures and post them if you can. I'd love to see it.

[aiannone]

I will certainly do that! From what i'm gathering from the locals around there and some mets, i should be heading to just north of Syracuse or near Rome.

[Frank_Wx]

Still watching the clipper system around the 6th. Could be a widespread 1-3 inch snowfall for everyone, especially north of NYC.

[algae888]

yes here is total snowfall from sat and Tuesdays systems. I will take it in a heartbeat.

would do wonders for all us snow weenies to have a few inches of snow on the ground and temps in the teens. a real wintry feel

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