Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Dunnzoo]

nws disco....



SAT-SUN...DRY BUT STILL COLD...BUT ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY SUN AS HIGHS RISE WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. EC
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS DEVELOPING A COASTAL
STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE. HAVE ADDED SCHC POP FOR NOW.

I would say our weather is starting to get a little interesting.

Haha now let's see how many folks want to come out Saturday to discuss THAT!

[jmanley32]

The models have been hinting at a coastal, way too early but heres hoping.

[algae888]

all three model ensembles now show +pna at day 10. looks nice hopefully something can materialize in this time frame.

[algae888]

op are hinting at a coastal for same time frame...


para gfs


cmc


euro

[algae888]

even nogaps has something...



all weather boards very quiet overnight with most promising time in our winter coming up.

[algae888]

on thing looks clear there will be no warm-up for at least 10 days as temps look to stay below normal.

[jmanley32]

Euro has widespread totals in 10 day 6 to 10 inches except at coast. Para 3 to 6 except at coast and cmc has narrow band for 5 to 8 along coastal areas. Looks like we may have much to talk about sat

[amugs]

Let's hope this is correct per Para - we may be rocking 2nd half of January

[jmanley32]

That's right around when the models are picking up on a coastal, heres hoping (yet futile at this point).

[sroc4]

Let's hope this is correct per Para - we may be rocking 2nd half of January

This would be right in line with the case study I am working on. Cautious optimism. Still a long way out

[amugs]

That's right around when the models are picking up on a coastal, heres hoping (yet futile at this point).

Yup here it is

[Guest]

That's right around when the models are picking up on a coastal, heres hoping (yet futile at this point).

Yup here it is

Only one model run 7 days out but....WOW IS THAT PRETTY. It would amount to 6 to 10 inches of accumulations during that 6 hour period alone. Let's hope we're not disappointed again.

[Math23x7]

The December 2014 QBO came out at -25.35...

[crippo84]

That's right around when the models are picking up on a coastal, heres hoping (yet futile at this point).

Yup here it is

Only one model run 7 days out but....WOW IS THAT PRETTY.  It would amount to 6 to 10 inches of accumulations during that 6 hour period alone.  Let's hope we're not disappointed again.

Lol I wish that were 7 days out. That's hour 360...valid on Jan 20th. But that's the prettiest map I've seen in a while haha.

[amugs]

DEC QBO in (-25) gives some explanation as to why Dec was such a crap pattern - most negative since stats kept on this - analog year is 1979 for this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

[Guest]

That's right around when the models are picking up on a coastal, heres hoping (yet futile at this point).

Yup here it is

Only one model run 7 days out but....WOW IS THAT PRETTY.  It would amount to 6 to 10 inches of accumulations during that 6 hour period alone.  Let's hope we're not disappointed again.

Lol I wish that were 7 days out.  That's hour 360...valid on Jan 20th. But that's the prettiest map I've seen in a while haha.

You're right. My bad. Thought this was the potential 11th 12th storm.

[nutleyblizzard]

The December 2014 QBO came out at -25.35...

So the QBO ended up even stronger than the month prior. That's a bad sign folks. Looks like my snowfall prediction of 76 inches will bust badly. We'll be lucky to see normal snowfall levels at this point.

[sroc4]

The December 2014 QBO came out at -25.35...

So the QBO ended up even stronger than the month prior. That's a bad sign folks. Looks like my snowfall prediction of 76 inches will bust badly. We'll be lucky to see normal snowfall levels at this point.

I would not go by that QBO value alone. The QBO values Mugsy provided only goes back to 1979, but there have been instances where it has been lower, and there also have been instances where it dropped then respiked.

[algae888]

updated mjo from gfs-gefs...

[sroc4]

If you went with 05/06 on QBO alone you wouldnt be so upset.  
June through Dec QBO -20.59  -24.20  -25.87  -27.80  -28.76  -29.55  -25.04(DEC)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Snow totals for Jan-March that winter for CPK was 30.1 inches 26.9" of which fell in FEB.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

NOBODY PANIC!!!

[Guest]

If you went with 05/06 on QBO alone you wouldnt be so upset.  
June through Dec QBO -20.59  -24.20  -25.87  -27.80  -28.76  -29.55  -25.04(DEC)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Snow totals for that winter for CPK were 40.0 inches 26.9" of which fell in FEB.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

NOBODY PANIC!!!

I hope you're right my LI buddy. I keep hoping even though I kinda jumped off the snowy winter bandwagon a few weeks ago. All these misses and failed predictions and most importantly my gut just don't have me feeling even the least bit optimistic. Keep on pulling the rest of us along with your optimism. I for one need it.

[Guest]

I hope you're right my LI buddy. I keep hoping even though I kinda jumped off the snowy winter bandwagon a few weeks ago. All these misses and failed predictions and most importantly my gut just don't have me feeling even the least bit optimistic. Keep on pulling the rest of us along with your optimism. I for one need it.

Sorry I screwed up the post again. Hey sroc4 do you see anything possible in the next 7 days?

[sroc4]

If you went with 05/06 on QBO alone you wouldnt be so upset.  
June through Dec QBO -20.59  -24.20  -25.87  -27.80  -28.76  -29.55  -25.04(DEC)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Snow totals for that winter for CPK were 40.0 inches 26.9" of which fell in FEB.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

NOBODY PANIC!!!

I hope you're right my LI buddy.  I keep hoping even though I kinda jumped off the snowy winter bandwagon a few weeks ago.  All these misses and failed predictions and most importantly my gut just don't have me feeling even the least bit optimistic.  Keep on pulling the rest of us along with your optimism.  I for one need it.

If you havent done so check out the Case study: I didnt hear no fat lady

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t411-ensemble-long-range-forecast-case-study-1-500mb-and-850mb

[algae888]

while the gfs and para have lost the storm for mon-tues next week cmc has 2. not sure what todays euro showed...


Monday

thursday

[algae888]

euro at end of its run today.. plus I'm hearing a lighter event for Monday and tuesday

[sroc4]

I hope you're right my LI buddy. I keep hoping even though I kinda jumped off the snowy winter bandwagon a few weeks ago. All these misses and failed predictions and most importantly my gut just don't have me feeling even the least bit optimistic. Keep on pulling the rest of us along with your optimism. I for one need it.

Sorry I screwed up the post again.  Hey sroc4 do you see anything possible in the next 7 days?

Nothing big in the next 7days, but maybe additional snow showers and light accum for the 9th ish with another clipper system.

[algae888]

many of the gfs ensembles are a hit for us next Monday thru Thursday. potential exists.


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