Official Long Range Thread 5.0
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
syosnow94 wrote:I hope you're right my LI buddy. I keep hoping even though I kinda jumped off the snowy winter bandwagon a few weeks ago. All these misses and failed predictions and most importantly my gut just don't have me feeling even the least bit optimistic. Keep on pulling the rest of us along with your optimism. I for one need it.
Sorry I screwed up the post again. Hey sroc4 do you see anything possible in the next 7 days?
Nothing big in the next 7days, but maybe additional snow showers and light accum for the 9th ish with another clipper system.
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
many of the gfs ensembles are a hit for us next Monday thru Thursday. potential exists.
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algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
amugs wrote:jmanley32 wrote:That's right around when the models are picking up on a coastal, heres hoping (yet futile at this point).
Yup here it is
Tuesday January 20th?
Let's be serious, I wouldn't believe that run if it was tomorrow Tuesday.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
we need the ridge in the west to sharpen and force one of the n/s s/w to dive further south and hopefully phase with the ssj as there will be plenty of moisture in the gulf. h5
ridge on euro is ok hopefully it wil rise and that s/w over north Dakota can phase with s/w over the gulf states. we shall see but looks interesting
ridge on euro is ok hopefully it wil rise and that s/w over north Dakota can phase with s/w over the gulf states. we shall see but looks interesting
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
cmc for Fridaysroc4 wrote:syosnow94 wrote:I hope you're right my LI buddy. I keep hoping even though I kinda jumped off the snowy winter bandwagon a few weeks ago. All these misses and failed predictions and most importantly my gut just don't have me feeling even the least bit optimistic. Keep on pulling the rest of us along with your optimism. I for one need it.
Sorry I screwed up the post again. Hey sroc4 do you see anything possible in the next 7 days?
Nothing big in the next 7days, but maybe additional snow showers and light accum for the 9th ish with another clipper system.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:So the QBO ended up even stronger than the month prior. That's a bad sign folks. Looks like my snowfall prediction of 76 inches will bust badly. We'll be lucky to see normal snowfall levels at this point.Math23x7 wrote:The December 2014 QBO came out at -25.35...
I would not go by that QBO value alone. The QBO values Mugsy provided only goes back to 1979, but there have been instances where it has been lower, and there also have been instances where it dropped then respiked.
To this point there are so many variable sat play as Frank and Sroc have mentioned and you cannot just say the QBO ruined winter or winter is cancelled. There si the Nina like pattern that we have had and is slowly evolving into a Nino pattern - and folks it doesn't happen overnight and it could last 18 months like others shave. One thing I have learned is that what goes on thousand of miles up (stratosphere and away (pacific)affects our weather so we have to look at all parts to see what is happening not just a few. Nuts not an epic winter but I think we go average to hopefully above. Still lots of time.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Nice look if we can get it to happen
EPO goes Negative and Heights rise over the Greenland Region
EPO goes Negative and Heights rise over the Greenland Region
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
On a good note, recent model runs have started to show the MJO moving into a more favorable position in the LR. There are also starting to pick up on the AO and NAO start to tank in the same timeframe. I take the LR models with a grain of salt though. So we shall see what develops.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:On a good note, recent model runs have started to show the MJO moving into a more favorable position in the LR. There are also starting to pick up on the AO and NAO start to tank in the same timeframe. I take the LR models with a grain of salt though. So we shall see what develops.
If it's after the 23rd or so, I'll believe it.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
My argument has been that the unfavorable QBO is what has made our Nino unresponsive with the atmosphere. In 2004-2005 there seemed to be a pseudo block in the north Atlantic
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Ever since guidance began showing the large Aleutian trough leading to the +PNA spike, the period between the 12th and 16th has remained interesting. Further intriguing is the established cold air mass that'll be in place, though there will be slight moderation compared to what we'll see this weekend.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
It doesn't look like we will much of a warm up from what I see on Stevie D forecast. Its important to watch the pattern evolve the next couple days maybe we start heading right direction
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Yea it probably won't get all that warm. Maybe a slight moderation to average temps before falling back below average. Problem remains the negative heights over the Arctic and NAO regions. Latest MJO plots show it heading into phase 7 by the end of January or early Feb - the time when I mentioned we could possibly get blocking. So let's hope its true.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
From earth light this site showing incredible stratospheric pertubation
http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=8
http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=8
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Looks like the 12/13th timeframe looks interesting on 18z para GFS (can't want to just call it the GFS lol) coastal scrapes us but doesnt need to be much further north to be a decent hit. Another chance after that too.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
WTF??? Jan 17 and 18 on this are Insanely cold with artic type wind chills - IF it verifies MADONNE 10x over
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC
We know it will not happen BUT........we shall see.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC
We know it will not happen BUT........we shall see.
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Well it wouldn't be the only cold, tomorrow and Thursday gonna be brutally cold. But 17-18th would totally nix the idea that we were going to have a warm January. I have noticed very poor forecasting on temps this year. Something has bound to line up right once this year. I remember when my parents in new haven county had 36 inches of snow a few years ago in one night, the rest of the winter there was not a whole lot of other storms, I would kill for a insane storm like that, never experienced more than about 2 feet (at one time that is)
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Accuweather is predicting precipitation for the 14th thru 16th any ideas about that
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
carvin1079 wrote:Accuweather is predicting precipitation for the 14th thru 16th any ideas about that
The threat is def there, but that is all right now. Anyone who tells you otherwise is guessing.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
MJO phase 1 and trop forcing looks to be upcoming by end of Jan - ways out I know but lets see - the GEFS have been hot on this LR action
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
accuweather or inaccuweather, lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
cmc for Friday...
and Monday..
para gfs Monday...
and Monday..
para gfs Monday...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Got to love the CMC - called 1-3 and 1-27 storms last year while the GFS and Euro were hugging each other.
I have a feeling we get light to moderate events with no -NAO, 50/50 LP or Scandinavian blocking but heck at this stage it is win.
I have a feeling we get light to moderate events with no -NAO, 50/50 LP or Scandinavian blocking but heck at this stage it is win.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Euro, although all over the place has a definite coastal around 13-16th time frame, way out there but something to watch. Almost all 50 ensemble stamps have decent to big snows in the long range.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
carvin1079 wrote:Accuweather is predicting precipitation for the 14th thru 16th any ideas about that
With ridge in thr west spiking the possibility is there for something, but we'll see how trends play out this weekend.
amugs wrote:MJO phase 1 and trop forcing looks to be upcoming by end of Jan - ways out I know but lets see - the GEFS have been hot on this LR action
Not sure how I feel about a mman trough in the west, but at least there is blocking.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
What did the para GFS do near the end, looked like a beautiful coastal coming up and then it is pushed due south off the coast, I assume the HP is too strong? I know this is way off but why did that happen, and assumingly if the storm still happened pattern could change and allow it to come up yes?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
jmanley32 wrote:What did the para GFS do near the end, looked like a beautiful coastal coming up and then it is pushed due south off the coast, I assume the HP is too strong? I know this is way off but why did that happen, and assumingly if the storm still happened pattern could change and allow it to come up yes?
Energy didn't phase enough. Pieces are flying all over the place. That storm could be an overrunning event, I just hope it remains cold enough. I think it will.
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