Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[down tines]

Thanks Frank,I troll the sight all the time.

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks Frank,I troll the sight all the time.

No problem!

[Guest]

Just a quick question nws has me in central jersey at 20% chance of snow for this Wednesday and Wednesday night,im going on vacation Wednesday morning I plow for the state is there any chance this will be a plowable snow, say 2 inches thanks in advance

No

There goes Frank being honest again. How ironic and funny will it be if late January and February turn out cold with several decent storms. We could actually wind up with an above average snowfall winter if that happens which would be miraculous. I'm just wishcasting here but one 3 to 5 inch storm per week for the 5 week period from the end of January through February and we're at average snowfall.

I still have hope in my fingers but my brain is yelling at me as I type this cause I know better.

Oh and Frank.....my rink is melting as we speak.

[Frank_Wx]

Just a quick question nws has me in central jersey at 20% chance of snow for this Wednesday and Wednesday night,im going on vacation Wednesday morning I plow for the state is there any chance this will be a plowable snow, say 2 inches thanks in advance

No

There goes Frank being honest again.  How ironic and funny will it be if late January and February turn out cold with several decent storms.  We could actually wind up with an above average snowfall winter if that happens which would be miraculous.  I'm just wishcasting here but one 3 to 5 inch storm per week for the 5 week period from the end of January through February and we're at average snowfall.

I still have hope in my fingers but my brain is yelling at me as I type this cause I know better.

Oh and Frank.....my rink is melting as we speak.

Certainly possible. If everything goes as planned with regards to the MJO and Stratosphere then you never know.

As for your rink...sorry to hear.

[aiannone]

Just a quick question nws has me in central jersey at 20% chance of snow for this Wednesday and Wednesday night,im going on vacation Wednesday morning I plow for the state is there any chance this will be a plowable snow, say 2 inches thanks in advance

No

There goes Frank being honest again.  How ironic and funny will it be if late January and February turn out cold with several decent storms.  We could actually wind up with an above average snowfall winter if that happens which would be miraculous.  I'm just wishcasting here but one 3 to 5 inch storm per week for the 5 week period from the end of January through February and we're at average snowfall.

I still have hope in my fingers but my brain is yelling at me as I type this cause I know better.

Oh and Frank.....my rink is melting as we speak.

It should freeze back up tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night for sure!

[jmanley32]

I am not trusting in any long range at this point, they keep not verifying, but I will keep fingers crossed for end January through Feb, maybe even beginning of March.

[Frank_Wx]

I promised myself I would not look at this crap for until Friday but I can't help myself. '

12z Euro Ens look like 12z GEFS with a -EPO/+PNA rebuilding the end of this month possibly due to the MJO propagation. I do believe we'll get some form of a -NAO as well, albeit weak. Even neutral would be an improvement from where we have been this season so far.

[docstox12]

Just a quick question nws has me in central jersey at 20% chance of snow for this Wednesday and Wednesday night,im going on vacation Wednesday morning I plow for the state is there any chance this will be a plowable snow, say 2 inches thanks in advance

No

There goes Frank being honest again.  How ironic and funny will it be if late January and February turn out cold with several decent storms.  We could actually wind up with an above average snowfall winter if that happens which would be miraculous.  I'm just wishcasting here but one 3 to 5 inch storm per week for the 5 week period from the end of January through February and we're at average snowfall.

I still have hope in my fingers but my brain is yelling at me as I type this cause I know better.

Oh and Frank.....my rink is melting as we speak.

Also, Syno, don't count out March.We can get some good snowstorms that month as well.Over 2 1/2 months of snow time still available.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I echo that point Doc. Some of our classic blizzards come in March. Surrounding water is usually in mid 30's if not lower by then so little affect on coastal areas. Plus storms tend to be moister then as the southern part of US transitions into spring. I remember many classic Marchs for snow and Several Aprils also.

If we can change the pattern by the end of Janauary we could still get a nice 6-8 week stretch.

[skinsfan1177]

I thimk I will take Franks advice and take a little break until we get to the January 23rd timeframe

[docstox12]

That's what I am thinking CP if that pattern change Frank showed me at the get together pans out.Remember last year most of the snow fell in that 6 week Jan to mid Feb time frame and we have 2 1/2 months available till the end of March.

Us old heads remember all those March and April snowstorms so it does and could happen.

One 16 to 18 incher will really get this board lit up and the Snow Weenie spirits up. Here's hoping.......

[sroc4]

If anyone is still selling their winter stock I'm still buying.

[Frank_Wx]

If anyone is still selling their winter stock I'm still buying.

CPK is at what, 3 inches of snow on the year? If the expected pattern comes to fruition they'll have a great shot to reach average.

[skinsfan1177]

I forgot to mention my wife got me snow boots for Xmas this year add that to the list haha

[dkodgis]

Mugs, great post and this begs the question of where has the snow been.  Here is a link I think some folks may enjoy that asks the same question and tries to answer it: http://www.app.com/story/enviroguy/2015/01/12/wheres-the-snow-this-winter/21663673/

This is from Isotherm who is a member here and posted this on the USA-wx site I belong to as wella sa few others - inetresting and scientific read - Syo just know in cliff notes that it will be snowing sometime after Jan 23rd - HAHAHA!

Earlier this month, I posted about the potential for an AO modality reversal in late January, particularly by the 20th and thereafter, as a more Nino-like global pattern begins to develop. I continue to believe that should be the case for a number of reasons as outlined below. The NAO state is more uncertain; however, there should be a significant improvement w/ a neutralization of the index by late January, which would certainly be a far cry from the strongly positive / low height field dominating the north Atlantic so far this winter.


[1]   Pacific-tropical forcing: A major "problem" over the past several months has been a lack of real Nino-like tropical forcing in the Pacific. SST's have gradually warmed to weak El Nino criteria, and the SSTA profile is indicative of a strongly positive PDO signal; however, tropical convection has been more reminiscent of a La Nina pattern, and this had has implications as far as the mid-latitude regime. As noted before, this will be changing as we finally see an eastward propagation of tropical convection / upward motion into the central tropical Pacific, which should initiate downstream changes in the mid latitude 500mb pattern.

Note the tendency for suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific over the past several months. Forecasts for the next few weeks indicate a significant change to this tropical forcing pattern as stronger upward motion / lift translates ewd.




200mb velocity potential and OLR forecasts suggest that the above tendency persists throughout the remainder of January.



[2] Global budget of atmospheric angular momentum: An important indicator of whether the atmosphere is in a Nino or Nina-like state is the AAM budget of Earth, namely is AAM increasing or decreasing, particularly in the tropical regions, which has significant ramifications as far as the mid latitude ridge / trough response. Lower AAM tendency represents a more Nina-like state while increasing speeds suggest a more Nino-like state. If one notes prior Nino winters, generally one finds that a Nina-like pattern occurs more frequently in Nino's when the AAM budget is suppressed. However, the Nino's which feature increased AAM tend to resemble more closely a "typical" El Nino height configuration at 500mb. This is a relationship that exists which must be utilized in concert with all other variables as well. November-early December featured a predominately +AAM, during which time, high latitude blocking and Eastern troughiness was present. That reversed to a strongly negative AAM by mid December, at which time a +EPO / +AO regime initiated. Currently, AAM has spiked significantly, at levels higher than we've seen over the past 50-60 days. This seems to coincide with the development of more Nino-like tropical forcing.




[3] Stratospheric improvement: The minor SSW event which transpired last week significantly warmed the stratosphere and can often act to warm / perturb the tropospheric vortex, thereby reversing the modality of the northern annular mode. This process tends to take at least 2 weeks, which further points to the 20th and beyond time frame I've been referencing for an AO state shift. We may not initially see a strongly negative AO, but the AO should neutralize by the 20th, then turn negative for the final 10 days of January as heights build across the pole from both the Eurasian and Pacific sides. The NAO state will likely lag due to the maintenance of a stratospheric vortex near Greenland and recent enhanced geomagnetic activity; however, it should undergo a significant negative trend toward neutral at the very least by late January. Model guidance is now in agreement on height rises beginning first in the EPO region by the 19th, and the Arctic after the 20th. Heights should improve significantly in the NAO region, but I wouldn't expect a monster Greenland block this month.

[4] ENSO state / progression analogs: the tendency in warm/positive ENSO years is for a mid to late winter negative AO / NAO state. Even in warm ENSO positive winters, the NAO often shifted to a negative state for February.


In conclusion: the current cold January has clearly diverted this winter from poor/warm +ENSO year and indicates that the global state remains favorable for NPAC / EPO blocking, as has been the case since autumn. Improvements in global, tropical, and stratospheric forcing implicate an AO shift after the 20th. The NAO state should improve significantly (neutralize) but blocking in that region may remain unimpressive for the time being. Sensible weather wise: anticipate a transient thaw period of approximately 3-5 days as the global regime transitions, however, the cold January should resume for the CONUS by the last week of January, with the development of a -EPO/-AO. Since the negative AO state has not been present thus far, this will likely increase the potential for wintry precipitation in the East which has largely been absent. At this point, I expect the late January transition to continue and amplify for the month of February. We'll see how it goes.

[sroc4]

If anyone is still selling their winter stock I'm still buying.

CPK is at what, 3 inches of snow on the year? If the expected pattern comes to fruition they'll have a great shot to reach average.

I agree Frank.  I think you mentioned it in prev posts.  Now is the time for most to take a break.  The "warm up" will def not be as prolonged nor as warm as prev modeled which is not all that surprising to me given the way the month has gone thus far.  The case study for the 19th is coming along, and I already have some images saved for the 25th which is the time frame we need to start watching closely which you have mentioned as well.

If the pattern this month had started two weeks earlier, ie: mid dec instead of late Dec early Jan I don't think there would be as many white towels on the ground re this winter.  It is still only January 13th.  The "Jan Thaw" or "warm up", that wont be as bad as most think, in the 5-10 day is 100% expected, and is typical of a reload or reset to the pattern this time of year.  There are already strong signals for the -EPO and +PNA to come back with avengence, and the -AO and neutral to -NAO is looking to take shape as well after the 23rd-25th time frame.  In addition we are finally seeing the trop forcing involving the MJO cycle move toward favorable positions, something that we have not seen yet this winter which is why we are seeing the AO and NAO projections look the way they do after the 23-25th time frame.  Will it come to fruition?  Maybe, maybe not.  One could take the glass half empty whiny approach and with the violin on their shoulders say.. well it hasn't worked out yet so why would I believe it now?   Or the glass half full approach and say...well of some of the signals that we though we would see by now are starting to show legitimate signs of getting into more favorable positions so we just may pull this out considering we still have a ton of winter left.  

Think of it this way.  If the rest of the winter started on the 23rd of Jan and ended March 13th that gives us 7 weeks to get to avg. And that's if we stop by March 13th.  We all know snow can happen after that as well.  There are MANY years were avg to above avg snowfall fell in that amt of time or less.   Last year for example.  From Jan 2nd(first recorded snowfall for the month=3.1") through Feb26th (last recorded snowfall for the month =0.2") 7.5weeks a total of 48.7" snow fell in central park.  If we use Feb 18th which was the next to last day it snowed in Feb last year CPK with a total of 1.5" the we get a total of 48.5" in a 6.5weeks period.

Now do not take this the wrong way.  I am not predicting 48.7" of snow to happen; however, what I am saying is that if the pattern is right then we can absolutely, 110%, still reach avg to above average snow totals in CPK in a 7 maybe 8-9weeks period of real winter left.  So seeing is that its JANUARY 13th!!!  Pick up the towels and put them away for 30days.  If CPK is still sitting at 3" for the season in 30days I willlead the white towel throwing party I promise, but still wont sound like my six year old in the car on our way to Nonnas house doing it.  "ARE WE THERE YET?"  "WHY CANT WE BE THERE ALREADY???"

[Guest]

I think the last line with everything capitalized was directed at me.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Frank and Sroc:

I have a lot of work to do today but then you two get me started on this stuff. If we assume right now that by February 1st CPK will have less than 7 inches of snow to that point the following applies:

If we take the period before February 1 the average in CPK is 13.9 inches of snow. If we use years where the snowfall during that period was 50% below normal or less than 7 inches there have been 45 such periods in the last 146 years.

The historical average for February 1 through April is 14.5 inches, to get back to the average for  the year we would need approximately 22 inches or more to get to the historical 28.4 average.

In the 45 low snowfall periods before February 1 only 9 of those 45 went on to see 22 or more inches of snow after January 31st.

If you want to look at some analog years the most recent time this happened was 1992-93 when only 1.9 inches of snow fell from November thru January. February thru April then saw a dramatic increase with 10.7 in February and  11.9 in March.  This brought the seasonal to 24.5 which is 4 inches below normal, but close enough.

The next analog year to use would be 1982-83 when 4.9 inches fell November through January and 22.3 February thru April. This may not  be a good year to use however as most of the snow fell in the February 83 blizzard.

The most dramatic years were 1895/96, 3.3 inches before February 1 and 43.0 inches after, and 1913-14 1.6 before and 38.9 after February 1.

It happens but it's not that common, 9 out of 45 is 20% of the time, hopefully this is one of those exceptions.

We all appreciate all the work you both do.

[essexcountypete]

I think the last line with everything capitalized was directed at me.

No worries, you are merely giving voice to what is already running through the collective minds of the weenies among us, myself included. Carry on.

[Frank_Wx]

If anyone is still selling their winter stock I'm still buying.

CPK is at what, 3 inches of snow on the year? If the expected pattern comes to fruition they'll have a great shot to reach average.

I agree Frank.  I think you mentioned it in prev posts.  Now is the time for most to take a break.  The "warm up" will def not be as prolonged nor as warm as prev modeled which is not all that surprising to me given the way the month has gone thus far.  The case study for the 19th is coming along, and I already have some images saved for the 25th which is the time frame we need to start watching closely which you have mentioned as well.

If the pattern this month had started two weeks earlier, ie: mid dec instead of late Dec early Jan I don't think there would be as many white towels on the ground re this winter.  It is still only January 13th.  The "Jan Thaw" or "warm up", that wont be as bad as most think, in the 5-10 day is 100% expected, and is typical of a reload or reset to the pattern this time of year.  There are already strong signals for the -EPO and +PNA to come back with avengence, and the -AO and neutral to -NAO is looking to take shape as well after the 23rd-25th time frame.  In addition we are finally seeing the trop forcing involving the MJO cycle move toward favorable positions, something that we have not seen yet this winter which is why we are seeing the AO and NAO projections look the way they do after the 23-25th time frame.  Will it come to fruition?  Maybe, maybe not.  One could take the glass half empty whiny approach and with the violin on their shoulders say.. well it hasn't worked out yet so why would I believe it now?   Or the glass half full approach and say...well of some of the signals that we though we would see by now are starting to show legitimate signs of getting into more favorable positions so we just may pull this out considering we still have a ton of winter left.  

Think of it this way.  If the rest of the winter started on the 23rd of Jan and ended March 13th that gives us 7 weeks to get to avg. And that's if we stop by March 13th.  We all know snow can happen after that as well.  There are MANY years were avg to above avg snowfall fell in that amt of time or less.   Last year for example.  From Jan 2nd(first recorded snowfall for the month=3.1") through Feb26th (last recorded snowfall for the month =0.2") 7.5weeks a total of 48.7" snow fell in central park.  If we use Feb 18th which was the next to last day it snowed in Feb last year CPK with a total of 1.5"  the we get a total of 48.5" in a 6.5weeks period.

Now do not take this the wrong way.  I am not predicting 48.7" of snow to happen; however, what I am saying is that if the pattern is right then we can absolutely, 110%, still reach avg to above average snow totals in CPK in a 7 maybe 8-9weeks period of real winter left.  So seeing is that its JANUARY 13th!!!  Pick up the towels and put them away for 30days.  If CPK is still sitting at 3" for the season in 30days I willlead the white towel throwing party I promise, but still wont sound like my six year old in the car on our way to Nonnas house doing it.  "ARE WE THERE YET?"  "WHY CANT WE BE THERE ALREADY???"

Haha, yea I agree. I use to be that kid on the way to nonnas...

[Frank_Wx]

Frank and Sroc:

I have a lot of work to do today but then you two get me started on this stuff. If we assume right now that by February 1st CPK will have less than 7 inches of snow to that point the following applies:

If we take the period before February 1 the average in CPK is 13.9 inches of snow. If we use years where the snowfall during that period was 50% below normal or less than 7 inches there have been 45 such periods in the last 146 years.

The historical average for February 1 through April is 14.5 inches, to get back to the average for  the year we would need approximately 22 inches or more to get to the historical 28.4 average.

In the 45 low snowfall periods before February 1 only 9 of those 45 went on to see 22 or more inches of snow after January 31st.

If you want to look at some analog years the most recent time this happened was 1992-93 when only 1.9 inches of snow fell from November thru January. February thru April then saw a dramatic increase with 10.7 in February and  11.9 in March.  This brought the seasonal to 24.5 which is 4 inches below normal, but close enough.

The next analog year to use would be 1982-83 when 4.9 inches fell November through January and 22.3 February thru April. This may not  be a good year to use however as most of the snow fell in the February 83 blizzard.

The most dramatic years were 1895/96, 3.3 inches before February 1 and 43.0 inches after, and 1913-14 1.6 before and 38.9 after February 1.

It happens but it's not that common, 9 out of 45 is 20% of the time, hopefully this is one of those exceptions.

We all appreciate all the work you both do.

I like trying to beat the odds. It makes the winter interesting.

[sroc4]

Frank and Sroc:

I have a lot of work to do today but then you two get me started on this stuff. If we assume right now that by February 1st CPK will have less than 7 inches of snow to that point the following applies:

If we take the period before February 1 the average in CPK is 13.9 inches of snow. If we use years where the snowfall during that period was 50% below normal or less than 7 inches there have been 45 such periods in the last 146 years.

The historical average for February 1 through April is 14.5 inches, to get back to the average for  the year we would need approximately 22 inches or more to get to the historical 28.4 average.

In the 45 low snowfall periods before February 1 only 9 of those 45 went on to see 22 or more inches of snow after January 31st.

If you want to look at some analog years the most recent time this happened was 1992-93 when only 1.9 inches of snow fell from November thru January. February thru April then saw a dramatic increase with 10.7 in February and  11.9 in March.  This brought the seasonal to 24.5 which is 4 inches below normal, but close enough.

The next analog year to use would be 1982-83 when 4.9 inches fell November through January and 22.3 February thru April. This may not  be a good year to use however as most of the snow fell in the February 83 blizzard.

The most dramatic years were 1895/96, 3.3 inches before February 1 and 43.0 inches after, and 1913-14 1.6 before and 38.9 after February 1.

It happens but it's not that common, 9 out of 45 is 20% of the time, hopefully this is one of those exceptions.

We all appreciate all the work you both do.

Two points I would like to make about this CP...actually 3:

1) Simply looking at this from a strict statistically sense based on the snowfall totals ONLY pre Feb 1st are misleading, because all years are not equal.  You simply cannot and should not compare a year or give it equal value for something as complex as the weather that was for instance a strong La Nina year in the tropical pacific that had a neg PDO (we are currently in El nada to weak El nino and a + PDO and have been since last year).  Because if you looked at the statistics for just those two criteria (and you have tolook at much more than just those two) you would find that if we were in that current state (Strong La Nina and a -PDO pattern) our chances would be even worse than what you provided above...by a lot.

(If you dnt believe me on this point simply look at the temp anomalies for Jan when he MJO is in strong phase 6 and tell me statistically how many of those years would you have the extreme below temp anomalies that are happening through right now and will return the last week of this month.  Here is a clue.  3 in 40 years.  Now that's bucking the avgs.)  

2)we are seeing a combination of anomalies that DO NOT have true analogue years.  There are some that are close but the state of the QBO, and MJO in cobo with the +PDO, Tripole AMA alantic SST configuration has not been seen before.  There are a few years that are close but that's it.  I am currently working on a project that prob wont be finished for awhile as I don't have a lot of time, but will challenge or adjust your as December goes statistics.  

3)Even if I were to follow your methods its not unprecedented.  By your methods staistically speaking there is still a 20% chance it happens.  So in the words of the great LLoyd Christmas..."So your telling me theirs a chance!!!!!"

List me the 9 years where it bucked the avg and I will look up all the pattern drivers for those years and see if there are any similarities.  Also we should peak at the 36yrs it didn't to see if there were any similar pattern drivers at play.

[sroc4]

I think the last line with everything capitalized was directed at me.

NOOOOOOO. bUT IF THE SHOE FITS.....

Im just playing Syo. I wish I could have been there at the get together so we could have met. Listen I am just as frustrated as anyone. Trust me. I just choose to respond differently. Since I cant control the weather I will try to control my response to the crappy weather thus far by looking for the positive. And I am not doing it for hype. I hope that's understood. Their may be a small bias, but I have very legitimate facts to back up my claims going forward. They may not work out the way I see them. I have always told it as I see it. If I think we are sunk I will admit defeat but in no way on Jan 13th with some of the major drivers on the table situated the way they are am I ready to throw in the towel. Its not even in my hand yet. That may change by Feb13th and if it does.....it does.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Frank and Sroc:

I have a lot of work to do today but then you two get me started on this stuff. If we assume right now that by February 1st CPK will have less than 7 inches of snow to that point the following applies:

If we take the period before February 1 the average in CPK is 13.9 inches of snow. If we use years where the snowfall during that period was 50% below normal or less than 7 inches there have been 45 such periods in the last 146 years.

The historical average for February 1 through April is 14.5 inches, to get back to the average for  the year we would need approximately 22 inches or more to get to the historical 28.4 average.

In the 45 low snowfall periods before February 1 only 9 of those 45 went on to see 22 or more inches of snow after January 31st.

If you want to look at some analog years the most recent time this happened was 1992-93 when only 1.9 inches of snow fell from November thru January. February thru April then saw a dramatic increase with 10.7 in February and  11.9 in March.  This brought the seasonal to 24.5 which is 4 inches below normal, but close enough.

The next analog year to use would be 1982-83 when 4.9 inches fell November through January and 22.3 February thru April. This may not  be a good year to use however as most of the snow fell in the February 83 blizzard.

The most dramatic years were 1895/96, 3.3 inches before February 1 and 43.0 inches after, and 1913-14 1.6 before and 38.9 after February 1.

It happens but it's not that common, 9 out of 45 is 20% of the time, hopefully this is one of those exceptions.

We all appreciate all the work you both do.

Two points I would like to make about this CP...actually 3:

1) Simply looking at this from a strict statistically sense based on the snowfall totals ONLY pre Feb 1st are misleading, because all years are not equal.  You simply cannot and should not compare a year or give it equal value for something as complex as the weather that was for instance a strong La Nina year in the tropical pacific that had a neg PDO (we are currently in El nada to weak El nino and a + PDO and have been since last year).  Because if you looked at the statistics for just those two criteria (and you have tolook at much more than just those two) you would find that if we were in that current state (Strong La Nina and a -PDO pattern) our chances would be even worse than what you provided above...by a lot.

(If you dnt believe me on this point simply look at the temp anomalies for Jan when he MJO is in strong phase 6 and tell me statistically how many of those years would you have the extreme below temp anomalies that are happening through right now and will return the last week of this month.  Here is a clue.  3 in 40 years.  Now that's bucking the avgs.)  

2)we are seeing a combination of anomalies that DO NOT have true analogue years.  There are some that are close but the state of the QBO, and MJO in cobo with the +PDO, Tipole AMA alantic SST configuration has not been seen before.  There are a few years that are close but that's it.  I am currently working on a project that prob wont be finished for awhile as I don't have a lot of time, but will challenge or adjust your as December goes statistics.  

3)Even if I were to follow your methods its not unprecedented.  By your methods staistically speaking there is still a 20% chance it happens.  So in the words of the great LLoyd Christmas..."So your telling me theirs a chance!!!!!"

List me the 9 years where it bucked the avg and I will look up all the pattern drivers for those years and see if there are any similarities.  Also we should peak at the 36yrs it didn't to see if there were any similar pattern drivers at play.

Sroc:

I'll answer in detail tonight. These are the 9 seasons that bucked the average.

1895/96
1913/14
1914/15
1923/24
1925/26
1946/47
1955/56
1982/83
1992/93

I of course am hoping this is one of those seasons. Of the other things you speak, you may as well be speaking Arabic to me.

Regarding your challenge of my December prognosticator, bring it on buddy.  

[Guest]

I think the last line with everything capitalized was directed at me.

NOOOOOOO.  bUT IF THE SHOE FITS.....

Im just playing Syo.  I wish I could have been there at the get together so we could have met.  Listen I am just as frustrated as anyone. Trust me.  I just choose to respond differently.  Since I cant control the weather I will try to control my response to the crappy weather thus far by looking for the positive.  And I am not doing it for hype.  I hope that's understood.  Their may be a small bias, but I have very legitimate facts to back up my claims going forward.  They may not work out the way I see them.  I have always told it as I see it.  If I think we are sunk I will admit defeat but in no way on Jan 13th with some of the major drivers on the table situated the way they are am I ready to throw in the towel.  Its not even in my hand yet.  That may change by Feb13th and if it does.....it does.    

I wasn't offended. I thought it was pretty clever. No biggie!

[Guest]

.......and sroc4, having to see that picture in your profile every time you post makes me even more pissed off and impatient.

[algae888]

today's 12z models says what warm up. sunday in the 40's then into the freezer again. maybe some storm chances later next week.

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