Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[amugs]

CP- Oh and how it does - my time as the are numbered and dwindling fast unfortunately!!!

[jmanley32]

Yeah 12z euro totally different shows cutter again with heavy rain and supposed high winds. That's why I said dream with the ooz but I misspelled it. Just wait and see what happens. At least I get another 4 day weekend next week.

[docstox12]

Jman the models, many times the Euro, keep showing fantasy storms 8-10 days out. Fun to look at but not to be taken seriously until they are finally correct with one. Even if that happens if you throw enough fantasy stuff out there in the long range the models are bound to be right at least once.

And so the wait goes on as the days in December tick away. If I have time this week I may do a detail write up on the December prognosticator. My only reason for doing it will be to accentuate how it is usually correct to hopefully jinx it into being incorrect this year.

Yes if I have to resort to Vodoo I will. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Love that reverse logic.Just emphasize how it is REALLY,REALLY correct for good measure.We need all the help we can get right now!

I heard if you split an OTI coconut and nail it over your front door frame, it might be a better bet!

[docstox12]

CP- Oh and how it does - my time as the are numbered and dwindling fast unfortunately!!!

King Mugsy, bottom of the ninth, bases loaded two outs, we are down 3 to 0, you have an 0 and 2 count.

Whaddaya gonna do, of King,LOL!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yeah 12z euro totally different shows cutter again with heavy rain and supposed high winds. That's why I said dream with the ooz but I misspelled it. Just wait and see what happens. At least I get another 4 day weekend next week.

Jman. These high winds in these long range Euros have about as much validity now as these ice storms that always show on inaccuweathers 45 day long range.

Let's never forget the 50-60 mph winds forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas. Could they have been any further off. We had no wind and morning fog. Talk about not having a clue.

I'd rather they get that wrong than the blizzard they called for in parts of the Midwest which ended up as just rain. That would have really annoyed me.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

CP- Oh and how it does - my time as the are numbered and dwindling fast unfortunately!!!

King Mugsy, bottom of the ninth, bases loaded two outs, we are down 3 to 0, you have an 0 and 2 count.

Whaddaya gonna do, of King,LOL!

Doc. I think he should bunt even with the bases loaded. Mugsy keeps swinging for the fences with this HECS for Jan 7-10. How about an infield single your highness let's try for a dusting first.

[Frank_Wx]

If you look between 70-90N, you see zonal winds in upper stratosphere in Day 8-10 range begin to reverse. Hopefully it's true. Thank you to Weathergun for pointing it out

[jmanley32]

Oh I know CP, just pretty colors and all, just like non of the snow maps have verified. sigh. Yeah they were WAY off on the wind for xmas, I was really surprised how far off they were, like epic fail on that whole system.

[jmanley32]

I will ask it again, what the heck does OTI stand for?

[sroc4]

Jman I believe it is Off Topic Island. And I am planning my coup

[jmanley32]

lol, where is the off topic island in the off topic threads?

[jmanley32]

Your all doing a excellent job but the two that stick out the most to me are Frank and sroc for their in depth analysis. Yes you guys its frustrating to get it wrong, but you see you guys are anever really wrong, you state the issues and problematic things that leave us with the possibility it will not work out. I appreciate that as much as I like to banter otherwise its only because I am a wx weenie : ) So please do not stop your posts and writeups, even if its bad news its better than no news. We only get half if that from media outlets, they can't tell the public what you guys do here. This is why no one believes us when we are saying a big storm is coming and media is not and when it does end up happening they are like "how did u know this"? I say there are some non-pro but IMO better than amateur mets on a forum I belong to that I follow like a hawk. No one seems to really care al though I do try to bring you traffic, the wx is a mis-undestood hobby and interest that most people don't seem to grasp.

[Snow88]

Is 2004-2005 a possible analog for this winter?Just looked 2004-2005 up. It seems really similiar to this year so far. December was average to slightly above normal. January started off above normal until mid month when the pattern changed. Once the pattern changed, this storm happened.

[Snow88]

0z GGEM for next weekend

[Frank_Wx]

Hmm I gotta look into 2004-2005

[Frank_Wx]

Those venturing to Times Sqaure NYE...temps. in the 20's.

Just get drunk early. You won't feel it.

[Frank_Wx]

In regards to the January 3rd storm...

Para (pictured) has a clear northern and southern stream phase with this storm that forces it to cut, but once it feels the PV to the north it makes a transfer off the coast.

GGEM has no phase and is more of a SWFE that takes a track along the coast. Might be a late transfer in there somewhere as well.

EURO coming out now.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO back to the cutter idea. Not sure why I am even up tracking a storm for Jan. 4th. Madonne.

[Frank_Wx]

This is how I would characterize January right as of now which is bound to change:

Jan 1st-2nd: Below normal temps.

Jan 3rd: Above normal temps with rain (maybe snow north and west of NYC)

Jan 4th-12th: Below normal temps. with 1-2 snow chances

Jan 14th-19th: Above normal temps.

Jan 20th-30th: Normal to below normal temps

[Frank_Wx]

Will probably have a blog out soon about what my thoughts for January to help back up that outlook I just posted.

[docstox12]

lol, where is the off topic island in the off topic threads?

You will find it in the Off Topic area under King Snow Weenie thread.You are welcome to visit us anytime, I'm temporary Minister of Tourism and give you a five day visa.

[sroc4]

The Euro at least looks like its bringing the + PNA ridge back to the west towards the end of the run. Combined with the -EPO is a decent signal for the coast around the 6th-10th.  Even the P-GFS is hinting at it as well. Again its the LR so here is your symbolic grain of salt.  (  .  )

[sroc4]

The next SSW is under way

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Like Santa Claus I'll believe in this stratospheric warming when I actually see it happen.

[Frank_Wx]

I like the 7th-12th for a snow event. The only reason the storm on the 4th is likely to cut is due to the cut-off low in SW US. If it weren't for that, we would have been in a long stretch of below normal temps. starting Dec. 30th. Now the period looks like it will be Jan 4th-12th, or around there before another possible warmup mid-month. 

It will be in this period when the EPO ridge cuts off, the PV heads south with higher heights actually reaching the arctic, and in turn the SE Ridge becomes muted. 

If we can get a s/w to amplify along the east coast during our coldest stretch of the season, bada bing, you have snow. 

[algae888]

cmc gives us a nice front end snow for Friday night....





before changing to rain. wouldn't even post this but with very cold air in place and a retreating HP we could see some overrunning snow esp inland. climo favors cold air damming and we will have a 1040+ HP just east of maine.

[docstox12]

NWS buying into this.Have me for snow Friday night, then snow to rain Saturday.Glad to get that 5 or 6 inches if it happens.

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