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BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:31 pm

The weekend threat is alive and well. We just need more phasing

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The weekend threat is alive and well. We just need more phasing
If everything is timed just right and we get a full phase, we could be talking a MECS or HECS event. The Navgem shows what could happen showing an all out blizzard. The 12z GFS and Canadian both showed improvements, but still offshore. Let's hope we can get the MJO to move into phase 8 along with some decent blocking.
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Post by sabamfa Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:24 pm

When would this occur, if it does?

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:25 pm

OMFG at the 12z Euro Right now

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:31 pm

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Ecmwf_10
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Ecmwf_11
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Ecmwf_12
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Ecmwf_13

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:38 pm

This storm is extremely impressive and surprisingly of all models the NAVGEM has been the most consistent. You can see the image Al posted. What the NAVGEM does is take a lobe of upper level energy out of Canada and ejects it south for a phase into the mean trough. This allows the storm to blow up right off our coast.

The other models have the storm, but do not have that phase with the Canadian energy. The northern stream has been very fast this season, so idk if we will be able to slow it down in time for it to phase with this system. Leaning against it for now, but I'll have an analysis tonight. I have not looked over everything as detailed as I would like to yet.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:39 pm

Ace I posted a comment in lr on this holy crap is right that would possibly be a roid if it came far enough west. Fantasy I'm not so sure as models have maintained a very intense lp off coast and coming back now toward coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:42 pm

So ur preliminary thought is a storm that awesome bypasses us what a kick in butt that would be! I hope ur analysis tonight is good let's see what euro ensembles say.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:43 pm

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_120HR

Upper air map with 12z JMA has an impressive trough, but you see that energy near the Great Lakes? Can we get a piece of that vort to phase in with the mean trough? If so, Godzilla storm likely. If not, one that escapes out to sea.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:45 pm

No escape everyone pray for this!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:05 pm

Wow 12z EURO Ensembles are west!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:08 pm

PRAISE JESUS

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Post-25-0-06225100-1421697885

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow 12z EURO Ensembles are west!
Im sorry, this threat is loaded with unimaginable potential.

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:19 pm

Euro Control
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Eps_t210
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 2 Eps_pr10

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:55 pm

@Quietace wrote:OMFG at the 12z Euro Right now

Why are you excited about an OTS solution?

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:58 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:OMFG at the 12z Euro Right now

Why are you excited about an OTS solution?
Its not about the solution but how the Euro developed the system. It only needed to make small adjustments for it to move west and impact the area.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:13 pm

Yeah frank the euro ensembles look great for this far out. Some deal a huge blow hopefull it goes a bit more west but some of those lp are sub 980 and 970 madonne!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:16 pm

That will make for one heck of a Monday commute that's for sure. And next week after that also looks to develop another big lp though that's even further out there. One at a time lol I keep tell myself that but it's just so hard lol.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:17 pm

Its definetly in a good position at this time its still a week away
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:40 pm

Not that it would be as intense as Euro showed it today and 18z GFS still keeps it well OTS (GFS has been late to the party, but the party doesn't start for a while). Just looked at the wind gusts and that sucker on the Euro has a large area of 90-100kt wind gusts, jesus, not saying it will happen and its probably fantasy storm but that would be a blizzard like I have never seen before.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Not that it would be as intense as Euro showed it today and 18z GFS still keeps it well OTS (GFS has been late to the party, but the party doesn't start for a while).  Just looked at the wind gusts and that sucker on the Euro has a large area of 90-100kt wind gusts, jesus, not saying it will happen and its probably fantasy storm but that would be a blizzard like I have never seen before.
Its not a fantasy storm

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:55 pm

I was trying to be low key, am excited to hear that! At that intensity though? (I didn't mean a fantasy storm itself I meant at that intensity)? so you are saying we could have a snowstorm with hurricane force winds?  That would be nuts, I don't even know what to say to that, MMADONNE x100 I guess lol. I would guess the actualy solution and intensity would be somewhere in between but it appears if this takes the right track and amplifies we could have a unprecidented event.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:At that intensity its not (I didn't mean a fantasy storm itself I meant at that intensity)? so you are saying we could have a snowstorm with hurricane force winds?  That would be nuts, I don't even know what to say to that.  Or am I wrong and we both got confused on what I was saying?
The system itself is not a fantasy. But as you know from prior experience, wind potential is often overstretched on models in the longer range, and at times significantly.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:05 pm

Pattern is screaming powder keg here folks - lots of players on the field for once - just need timing and them to want to dance not sit on the sidelines like they have all winter long!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:08 pm

Yeah just wanted your take, clarify what u meant, yes but just even see 100kt winds with a snowstorm and on the Euro nonetheless (usually u see that crap on the CMC) was just crazy, lots of time and watching, I know one thing this week I will be very tired, but probably won't stay up for the 00z runs till Frank is going bonkers lol.

One thing I know when Ace, sroc, Frank and mugs are all spelling such potential it def gets me going, now lets just hope this plays out, something tells me it will, just to what degree.
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