BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter

cmc out through 120hrs

6z navgem

gfs

The weekend threat is alive and well. We just need more phasing

Frank_Wx wrote:The weekend threat is alive and well. We just need more phasing

If everything is timed just right and we get a full phase, we could be talking a MECS or HECS event. The Navgem shows what could happen showing an all out blizzard. The 12z GFS and Canadian both showed improvements, but still offshore. Let's hope we can get the MJO to move into phase 8 along with some decent blocking.

When would this occur, if it does?

OMFG at the 12z Euro Right now

This storm is extremely impressive and surprisingly of all models the NAVGEM has been the most consistent. You can see the image Al posted. What the NAVGEM does is take a lobe of upper level energy out of Canada and ejects it south for a phase into the mean trough. This allows the storm to blow up right off our coast.

The other models have the storm, but do not have that phase with the Canadian energy. The northern stream has been very fast this season, so idk if we will be able to slow it down in time for it to phase with this system. Leaning against it for now, but I'll have an analysis tonight. I have not looked over everything as detailed as I would like to yet.

Ace I posted a comment in lr on this holy crap is right that would possibly be a roid if it came far enough west. Fantasy I'm not so sure as models have maintained a very intense lp off coast and coming back now toward coast.

So ur preliminary thought is a storm that awesome bypasses us what a kick in butt that would be! I hope ur analysis tonight is good let's see what euro ensembles say.

Upper air map with 12z JMA has an impressive trough, but you see that energy near the Great Lakes? Can we get a piece of that vort to phase in with the mean trough? If so, Godzilla storm likely. If not, one that escapes out to sea.

No escape everyone pray for this!

Wow 12z EURO Ensembles are west!

PRAISE JESUS

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow 12z EURO Ensembles are west!

Im sorry, this threat is loaded with unimaginable potential.

Euro Control

Quietace wrote:OMFG at the 12z Euro Right now

Why are you excited about an OTS solution?

syosnow94 wrote:

Quietace wrote:OMFG at the 12z Euro Right now

Why are you excited about an OTS solution?

Its not about the solution but how the Euro developed the system. It only needed to make small adjustments for it to move west and impact the area.

Yeah frank the euro ensembles look great for this far out. Some deal a huge blow hopefull it goes a bit more west but some of those lp are sub 980 and 970 madonne!

That will make for one heck of a Monday commute that's for sure. And next week after that also looks to develop another big lp though that's even further out there. One at a time lol I keep tell myself that but it's just so hard lol.

Its definetly in a good position at this time its still a week away

Not that it would be as intense as Euro showed it today and 18z GFS still keeps it well OTS (GFS has been late to the party, but the party doesn't start for a while). Just looked at the wind gusts and that sucker on the Euro has a large area of 90-100kt wind gusts, jesus, not saying it will happen and its probably fantasy storm but that would be a blizzard like I have never seen before.

jmanley32 wrote:Not that it would be as intense as Euro showed it today and 18z GFS still keeps it well OTS (GFS has been late to the party, but the party doesn't start for a while).  Just looked at the wind gusts and that sucker on the Euro has a large area of 90-100kt wind gusts, jesus, not saying it will happen and its probably fantasy storm but that would be a blizzard like I have never seen before.

Its not a fantasy storm

I was trying to be low key, am excited to hear that! At that intensity though? (I didn't mean a fantasy storm itself I meant at that intensity)? so you are saying we could have a snowstorm with hurricane force winds?  That would be nuts, I don't even know what to say to that, MMADONNE x100 I guess lol. I would guess the actualy solution and intensity would be somewhere in between but it appears if this takes the right track and amplifies we could have a unprecidented event.

jmanley32 wrote:At that intensity its not (I didn't mean a fantasy storm itself I meant at that intensity)? so you are saying we could have a snowstorm with hurricane force winds?  That would be nuts, I don't even know what to say to that.  Or am I wrong and we both got confused on what I was saying?

The system itself is not a fantasy. But as you know from prior experience, wind potential is often overstretched on models in the longer range, and at times significantly.

Pattern is screaming powder keg here folks - lots of players on the field for once - just need timing and them to want to dance not sit on the sidelines like they have all winter long!

Yeah just wanted your take, clarify what u meant, yes but just even see 100kt winds with a snowstorm and on the Euro nonetheless (usually u see that crap on the CMC) was just crazy, lots of time and watching, I know one thing this week I will be very tired, but probably won't stay up for the 00z runs till Frank is going bonkers lol.

One thing I know when Ace, sroc, Frank and mugs are all spelling such potential it def gets me going, now lets just hope this plays out, something tells me it will, just to what degree.