NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

+56
GreyBeard
weatherwatchermom
dsix85
billg315
WOLVES1
wilsocks
Snow88
chief7
toople
nyrfan31
dsvinos
smoggy14
snow247
mancave25
Puff the magic dragon
Artechmetals
Abba701
thgstang
Aiosamoney21
SNOW MAN
New Yorker 234
deadrabbit79
Grselig
Vinnydula
Scullybutcher
meeka312
Analog96
docstox12
BARBIEFLY
essexcountypete
Sferra01
mako460
oldtimer
dad4twoboys
bloc1357
Sunflowers138
crippo84
carvin1079
dkodgis
RJB8525
Dunnzoo
NjWeatherGuy
algae888
Math23x7
aiannone
CPcantmeasuresnow
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
sroc4
skinsfan1177
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
Quietace
devsman
amugs
Frank_Wx
60 posters

Page 5 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 22 ... 40  Next

Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:46 pm

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:47 pm

Holy crap that blue went right over MBY! Again centered right over the parents house lol, NOT!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

WELL aint that HANDSOME.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:49 pm

The models have really had intensity down, sub 990 maybe sub 980 if it really cranks.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:50 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The models have really had intensity down, sub 990 maybe sub 980 if it really cranks.

No phase.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:55 pm

CMC snow map = a foot over NYC.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:56 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:CMC snow map = a foot over NYC.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 246rj9z

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:CMC snow map = a foot over NYC.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 246rj9z

A true BOS-WASH MECS.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:01 am

00z GEFS

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

Madonne.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:03 am

Welp. What a bunch of runs. Now we watch the social media 'storm' bomb out. Rolling Eyes
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:04 am

Goodnight. Will try to post during the day tomorrow, mainly in the morning, but look for Update #2 between 6-8pm

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:32 am

I hate to temper the enthusiasm but there were two storms last year (January 21st and February 3rd (the latter being the day after the Superbowl)) that were not seen on the models 4 days out. With each passing run, they began to trend further northwest until they confirmed a big hit the day before they happened. To those of you who were at the meetup on the 10th you may recall the EURO ensemble snow graphs from weatherbell I showed you illustrating this.

I am just hoping that, four days out, this northwest trend does not continue to the point where it's a rainstorm for us and a snowstorm north and west of here.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by algae888 Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:34 am

just got home and saw 8 pages in thread and new it was good. all models look very good esp gfs which has storm after storm after storm. one thing I noticed is that precip starts pre dawn sat faster by about 6 hours or so. so we are now in the 3-4 day time frame. tomorrows runs are huge. if gfs run verifies we we will have exceded our average snow fall by jan 31st. amazing. frank you said it at the g2g that you really like this pattern what fascinates me is that mets like steve d and dt had already thrown in the towel for this winter and they are really good mets. frank maybe you can teach them a thing or two about meteorology.lol
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:49 am

@Math23x7 wrote:I hate to temper the enthusiasm but there were two storms last year (January 21st and February 3rd (the latter being the day after the Superbowl)) that were not seen on the models 4 days out.  With each passing run, they began to trend further northwest until they confirmed a big hit the day before they happened.  To those of you who were at the meetup on the 10th you may recall the EURO ensemble snow graphs from weatherbell I showed you illustrating this.

I am just hoping that, four days out, this northwest trend does not continue to the point where it's a rainstorm for us and a snowstorm north and west of here.

Out to sea is a more realistic solution than an inland runner. No worries.

@algae888 wrote:just got home and saw 8 pages in thread and new it was good. all models look very good esp gfs which has storm after storm after storm. one thing I noticed is that precip starts pre dawn sat faster by about 6 hours or so. so we are now in the 3-4 day time frame. tomorrows runs are huge. if gfs run verifies we we will have exceded our average snow fall by jan 31st. amazing. frank you said it at the g2g that you really like this pattern what fascinates me is that mets like steve d and dt had already thrown in the towel for this winter and they are really good mets. frank maybe you can teach them a thing or two about meteorology.lol

Yea, I personally never liked either of them. But I still respect Steve D. Not DT because he respects no one. In my updated winter outlook on Jan. 1st I mentioned we'll be getting help from the Stratosphere and MJO by the 2nd half of winter. Finally, it's showing. And even though I went just average snowfall for CPK, that doesn't mean we can't get big storms.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:13 am

00z euro

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90



_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:13 am

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:14 am

Well that seems it pulled east bad?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:15 am

H5 never closed off that run. Really bombs out. Godzilla.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:17 am

From those maps looks to keep the main precip offshore though, do u see that being a issue or just awaffling? I knew u werent going to bed lol.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:19 am

Of course there will be waffling. Nothing is ever consistent. Tomorrow it could be out to sea for all I know. But I think pattern supports a storm more than not.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:20 am

There's no west based blocking, high to the north, or 50/50 low. It's still a delicate setup in a progressive pattern.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:22 am

When was the last time the majority of models showed a Godzilla in the same run? I am going to bed a HAPPY camper.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:22 am

i don't see ots being ultimate outcome i know its late but lets keep those positive vibes!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:29 am

I looked at the weatherbell 0Z EURO run. at hr 90 for NYC and LI 850 mb, 925 mb, and surface temperatures are above freezing. Not until the tail end of the storm do temperatures crash below freezing here...

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:40 am

@Math23x7 wrote:I looked at the weatherbell 0Z EURO run.  at hr 90 for NYC and LI 850 mb, 925 mb, and surface temperatures are above freezing.  Not until the tail end of the storm do temperatures crash below freezing here...

You can't go by the temps verbatim due to the storm cooling the columns on its own with a pressure that low (which models do not always pick up on). This run was colder than last night's 00'z. A step in the right direction IMO.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 22 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum