Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:44 pm

The 00z GGEM is a hit. 998mb low east of OC, MD

No images yet

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:44 pm

ok thats it, GFS not even close to done and you got CMC already, im getting storm vista!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:46 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:47 pm

Holy crap that blue went right over MBY! Again centered right over the parents house lol, NOT!

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

WELL aint that HANDSOME.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:49 pm

The models have really had intensity down, sub 990 maybe sub 980 if it really cranks.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:The models have really had intensity down, sub 990 maybe sub 980 if it really cranks.

No phase.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:55 pm

CMC snow map = a foot over NYC.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:56 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC snow map = a foot over NYC.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 246rj9z

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:CMC snow map = a foot over NYC.

A true BOS-WASH MECS.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:01 pm

00z GEFS

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

Madonne.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:03 pm

Welp. What a bunch of runs. Now we watch the social media 'storm' bomb out. Rolling Eyes

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:04 pm

Goodnight. Will try to post during the day tomorrow, mainly in the morning, but look for Update #2 between 6-8pm

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:32 pm

I hate to temper the enthusiasm but there were two storms last year (January 21st and February 3rd (the latter being the day after the Superbowl)) that were not seen on the models 4 days out. With each passing run, they began to trend further northwest until they confirmed a big hit the day before they happened. To those of you who were at the meetup on the 10th you may recall the EURO ensemble snow graphs from weatherbell I showed you illustrating this.

I am just hoping that, four days out, this northwest trend does not continue to the point where it's a rainstorm for us and a snowstorm north and west of here.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:34 pm

just got home and saw 8 pages in thread and new it was good. all models look very good esp gfs which has storm after storm after storm. one thing I noticed is that precip starts pre dawn sat faster by about 6 hours or so. so we are now in the 3-4 day time frame. tomorrows runs are huge. if gfs run verifies we we will have exceded our average snow fall by jan 31st. amazing. frank you said it at the g2g that you really like this pattern what fascinates me is that mets like steve d and dt had already thrown in the towel for this winter and they are really good mets. frank maybe you can teach them a thing or two about meteorology.lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:49 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I hate to temper the enthusiasm but there were two storms last year (January 21st and February 3rd (the latter being the day after the Superbowl)) that were not seen on the models 4 days out. With each passing run, they began to trend further northwest until they confirmed a big hit the day before they happened. To those of you who were at the meetup on the 10th you may recall the EURO ensemble snow graphs from weatherbell I showed you illustrating this.

I am just hoping that, four days out, this northwest trend does not continue to the point where it's a rainstorm for us and a snowstorm north and west of here.

Out to sea is a more realistic solution than an inland runner. No worries.

algae888 wrote:just got home and saw 8 pages in thread and new it was good. all models look very good esp gfs which has storm after storm after storm. one thing I noticed is that precip starts pre dawn sat faster by about 6 hours or so. so we are now in the 3-4 day time frame. tomorrows runs are huge. if gfs run verifies we we will have exceded our average snow fall by jan 31st. amazing. frank you said it at the g2g that you really like this pattern what fascinates me is that mets like steve d and dt had already thrown in the towel for this winter and they are really good mets. frank maybe you can teach them a thing or two about meteorology.lol

Yea, I personally never liked either of them. But I still respect Steve D. Not DT because he respects no one. In my updated winter outlook on Jan. 1st I mentioned we'll be getting help from the Stratosphere and MJO by the 2nd half of winter. Finally, it's showing. And even though I went just average snowfall for CPK, that doesn't mean we can't get big storms.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:13 pm

00z euro

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:13 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:14 pm

Well that seems it pulled east bad?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:15 pm

H5 never closed off that run. Really bombs out. Godzilla.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:17 pm

From those maps looks to keep the main precip offshore though, do u see that being a issue or just awaffling? I knew u werent going to bed lol.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:19 pm

Of course there will be waffling. Nothing is ever consistent. Tomorrow it could be out to sea for all I know. But I think pattern supports a storm more than not.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:20 pm

There's no west based blocking, high to the north, or 50/50 low. It's still a delicate setup in a progressive pattern.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:22 pm

When was the last time the majority of models showed a Godzilla in the same run? I am going to bed a HAPPY camper.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:22 pm

i don't see ots being ultimate outcome i know its late but lets keep those positive vibes!

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:29 pm

I looked at the weatherbell 0Z EURO run. at hr 90 for NYC and LI 850 mb, 925 mb, and surface temperatures are above freezing. Not until the tail end of the storm do temperatures crash below freezing here...

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:40 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I looked at the weatherbell 0Z EURO run. at hr 90 for NYC and LI 850 mb, 925 mb, and surface temperatures are above freezing. Not until the tail end of the storm do temperatures crash below freezing here...

You can't go by the temps verbatim due to the storm cooling the columns on its own with a pressure that low (which models do not always pick up on). This run was colder than last night's 00'z. A step in the right direction IMO.

by Sponsored content