Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Notice they mention VERY GUSTY winds too(this in the discussion not the HWO) I am lacking much sleep this better friggin pan out!

skins it was the 06z only run so far today and the NAM wasn't bad FWIW (not much). So to say todays runs do not look good can't be said until at least after the 12z runs, lets all make a prayer circle.

jmanley32 wrote:Notice they mention VERY GUSTY winds, blizzard anyone (this in the discussion not the HWO) I am lacking much sleep this better friggin pan out!

OMG! Never mention the B word unless we are within 36 hours of an event! She's very sensitive & will scare off otherwise!!

Jamn,

Just give me the snow and keep the winds, Ive had several power outages because of winds with blizzards the last several years and it's never any fun. It takes away from the whole experience when your off the grid for half the event. I'll take 20 mph winds and heavy snow, that's my ideal.

I notice TWC already changed my area from periods of  snow all day Saturday with 90% probability, to a chance of  a few snow showers 60% probability. This of course will change at least three more times today, which is why I put almost zero credibility to any of their automated forecasts.

Yes of course and the change is probably due to the 06z GFS, which most of them are based off of.  Sorry bout that soulsing, I retract my statement hang on!

I changed it soul, but your copy response still says the B word, I am not superstitious but if anyone is I totally respect that. CP only time I ever lost power in a snowstorm was the October Halloween one in 2011, it sucked was so cold. But NWS idea of very gusty winds is relative, could mean 20-30mph.

NAM now in range, beautiful hit FWIW.

Verbatim snow map Godzilla!

NAM overdoes precip, sometimes by a third, so tread with caution! lol

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
220930-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
419 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND THE PRECIPITATION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT AND TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

Dunnzoo wrote:NAM overdoes precip, sometimes by a third, so tread with caution! lol

I agree 100%. The only change to your statement is I would take out the word sometimes.

Watching TWC, they showed the 2 scenarios Euro and GFS, Euro looks like it nails us GFS is way out but still gets us. looks like a win win i think lol

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:NAM overdoes precip, sometimes by a third, so tread with caution! lol

I agree 100%. The only change to your statement is I would take out the word sometimes.

haha I should have worded it better maybe
sometimes by a third
sometimes by half
etc.....
it really always overdoes precip, just not always consistently

12z GFS is improved at H5 over 06z. We're going to cut it close without an HP/50-50/west-based block. 12z JMA tracks inside the BM. Very amplified.

Can't post maps until my second update tonight, which will be sometime between 6-8pm

the 12 Z gfs is west of 6 Z and east of 00Z. frank I have a question with the ridge axis right along the west coast you would think the storm would cut but with a progressive pattern that we are in and the polar vortex to our North it should allow the low pressure to track somewhere inside the benchmark. the problem is there is a sharp cut off on the western edge of the precipitation. where New York City gets about a quarter of an inch and the central New Jersey coast has one plus inches.the out to sea solution is probably not going to happen someone is going to get hit good with this storm in our area. what do you think*

I'm hearing the G gem and the UK Met are big hits for our area

Just heard the CMC went KABOOM.

I'm on my phone so can't post maps but CMC has low pressure 75 miles east of Atlantic City with heavy CCB Banding all the way to Northeast Pennsylvania. city and Long Island may have some mixing issues for a while but one plus inches of precipitation for New York City great run for northern New Jersey  and Hudson Valley

Al what about us? Not fully loaded yet on wxbell. This is such a nail biter. Cmc also over does amplification.

right now the GFS is the easternmost solution. which is the norm for that model remember last week's storm 54 hours before it hit GFS was East and dry we ended up with 2 inches of rain

Cmc a beast actually all way down to us al godzilla snows and jersey gets skunked too warm?

Maps please lmao

I feel this trend back west a little or continue east and everyone screwed

998mb from off jersey to 980mb south of Cape cod that's why we see most snow own cooling during bombing out.