Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Frank_Wx wrote:UHG, why we posting maps from the NAM.

I need to find a way to ban that useless model.

Ban The NAM and the 2/17/14 snow killer. A double header.

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The snow may become wetter, but I think a changeover is looking less likely at this point.

Do you have hr 78 of the Euro, only hour that didnt load on Wxbell for 12z run...925 and 850s are all at or below 0c before and after that frame......

MSLP, 1000-500 hPa thickness and 6-hour precipitation
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=12&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=C&mv5=6&mv0=&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv8=scheme:white&uid=mslpthkpcp6_white
925 hPa Heights, Temperatures, Winds and RH
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=12&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=C&mv0=&gs=hgt_rhu_tmp_wdb&mv5=925&mv7=2&mv8=scheme:white&cap=&uid=925rh_tmp_hgt_wdb2_white
825 hPa Heights, Temperatures, Winds and RH
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=12&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=C&mv0=&gs=hgt_rhu_tmp_wdb&mv5=850&mv7=2&mv8=scheme:white&cap=&uid=850rh_tmp_hgt_wdb2_white

So: Which model is best, generally speaking, at this timeframe leading up to a potential event??

SoulSingMG wrote:So: Which model is best, generally speaking, at this timeframe leading up to a potential event??

The one that shows the JackPot IMBY!!

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The snow may become wetter, but I think a changeover is looking less likely at this point.

Do you have hr 78 of the Euro, only hour that didnt load on Wxbell for 12z run...925 and 850s are all at or below 0c before and after that frame......

MSLP, 1000-500 hPa thickness and 6-hour precipitation
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=12&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=C&mv5=6&mv0=&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv8=scheme:white&uid=mslpthkpcp6_white
925 hPa Heights, Temperatures, Winds and RH
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=12&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=C&mv0=&gs=hgt_rhu_tmp_wdb&mv5=925&mv7=2&mv8=scheme:white&cap=&uid=925rh_tmp_hgt_wdb2_white
825 hPa Heights, Temperatures, Winds and RH
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued&mt=12&hr=78&map=conus&gv0=C&mv0=&gs=hgt_rhu_tmp_wdb&mv5=850&mv7=2&mv8=scheme:white&cap=&uid=850rh_tmp_hgt_wdb2_white

Thanks

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:So: Which model is best, generally speaking, at this timeframe leading up to a potential event??

The one that shows the JackPot IMBY!!  

Hahaha but of course! :-D

SoulSingMG wrote:So: Which model is best, generally speaking, at this timeframe leading up to a potential event??

Honestly, in my opinion, no model has done all that well so far this winter. Typically, the EURO is best, followed by the GFS and NAM/GEM. But that's only my opinion. Once we get within the 54 hour window (approximately), I don't put much weight in the global models at all, but really start following the short-range guidance.

Step away from the models....everyone breathe! See you back here for the 00zs!

Dunnzoo wrote:Step away from the models....everyone breathe! See you back here for the 00zs!

Great advice Janet.

EURO is nice, screw the NAM we got 72 hours of time for trends which could be a good or bad thing.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:UHG, why we posting maps from the NAM.

I need to find a way to ban that useless model.

Ban The NAM and the 2/17/14 snow killer. A double header.

"the snow killer"

I'm dying at work.

Want to see 18z GFS though, and again what is BDB? Ace answered me about maues comment on 40-70mph wind gusts. Also I believe it was 2/16 not 2/17.

On the old 7-online chat board thread from March 2011 entitled "A day in the life of the accu-board" which talked about the general pattern of the board days before a potential snowstorm by ltthedog, it went something like this:

3:15 The 18Z NAM comes in warm and drier

3:16 Thirty posts in one minute ranging from how bad the NAM is, it must have had initialization errors, to this will go down as one of the biggest busts ever

3:20 Melvin posts his two day old five day forecast and says he knew it wouldn't snow

3:25 Phil comes in and says everyone has been terrible other than Frank and Tom and says Melvin was right all along. Ends the post "Schmaltzie"

4:30 The 18Z GFS is colder. The General consensus is that the GFS has been a much better job this winter and that the NAM is out to lunch.

4:40 Frank, being the voice of reason, recaps what he is thinking. His post immediately has 20 questions as if the Messiah has just come down.

4:50 Someone asks Frank if he is a professional met. 10 people respond in 2 minutes saying he's 18 [at the time].

Maybe something similar will happen, especially since the GFS got the upgrade last week.

jmanley32 wrote:Want to see 18z GFS though, and again what is BDB? Ace answered me about maues comment on 40-70mph wind gusts. Also I believe it was 2/16 not 2/17.

BDB = Boxing Day Blizzard [of 2010]

jmanley32 wrote:Want to see 18z GFS though, and again what is BDB? Ace answered me about maues comment on 40-70mph wind gusts. Also I believe it was 2/16 not 2/17.

I think it's a reference the Boxing Day Blizzard....

Math23x7 wrote:On the old 7-online chat board thread from March 2011 entitled "A day in the life of the accu-board" which talked about the general pattern of the board days before a potential snowstorm by ltthedog, it went something like this:

3:15 The 18Z NAM comes in warm and drier

3:16 Thirty posts in one minute ranging from how bad the NAM is, it must have had initialization errors, to this will go down as one of the biggest busts ever

3:20 Melvin posts his two day old five day forecast and says he knew it wouldn't snow

3:25 Phil comes in and says everyone has been terrible other than Frank and Tom and says Melvin was right all along.  Ends the post "Schmaltzie"

4:30 The 18Z GFS is colder.  The General consensus is that the GFS has been a much better job this winter and that the NAM is out to lunch.

4:40 Frank, being the voice of reason, recaps what he is thinking.  His post immediately has 20 questions as if the Messiah has just come down.

4:50  Someone asks Frank if he is a professional met.  10 people respond in 2 minutes saying he's 18 [at the time].

Maybe something similar will happen, especially since the GFS got the upgrade last week.

LOL. This is great.

I did not see you answer Jman,  they are correct.

Math23x7 wrote:On the old 7-online chat board thread from March 2011 entitled "A day in the life of the accu-board" which talked about the general pattern of the board days before a potential snowstorm by ltthedog, it went something like this:

3:15 The 18Z NAM comes in warm and drier

3:16 Thirty posts in one minute ranging from how bad the NAM is, it must have had initialization errors, to this will go down as one of the biggest busts ever

3:20 Melvin posts his two day old five day forecast and says he knew it wouldn't snow

3:25 Phil comes in and says everyone has been terrible other than Frank and Tom and says Melvin was right all along.  Ends the post "Schmaltzie"

4:30 The 18Z GFS is colder.  The General consensus is that the GFS has been a much better job this winter and that the NAM is out to lunch.

4:40 Frank, being the voice of reason, recaps what he is thinking.  His post immediately has 20 questions as if the Messiah has just come down.

4:50  Someone asks Frank if he is a professional met.  10 people respond in 2 minutes saying he's 18 [at the time].

Maybe something similar will happen, especially since the GFS got the upgrade last week.

This is classic!! Ahahahahaha

Who is correct ace., maue? DO you think winds could get that bad here ie. NYC area S and E? That's paralyzing! But what were you saying about the boxing day blizzard sorry I lost ya,

Math23x7 wrote:On the old 7-online chat board thread from March 2011 entitled "A day in the life of the accu-board" which talked about the general pattern of the board days before a potential snowstorm by ltthedog, it went something like this:

3:15 The 18Z NAM comes in warm and drier

3:16 Thirty posts in one minute ranging from how bad the NAM is, it must have had initialization errors, to this will go down as one of the biggest busts ever

3:20 Melvin posts his two day old five day forecast and says he knew it wouldn't snow

3:25 Phil comes in and says everyone has been terrible other than Frank and Tom and says Melvin was right all along.  Ends the post "Schmaltzie"

4:30 The 18Z GFS is colder.  The General consensus is that the GFS has been a much better job this winter and that the NAM is out to lunch.

4:40 Frank, being the voice of reason, recaps what he is thinking.  His post immediately has 20 questions as if the Messiah has just come down.

4:50  Someone asks Frank if he is a professional met.  10 people respond in 2 minutes saying he's 18 [at the time].

Maybe something similar will happen, especially since the GFS got the upgrade last week.

OMG HA

jmanley32 wrote:Who is correct ace., maue? DO you think winds could get that bad here ie. NYC area S and E? That's paralyzing! But what were you saying about the boxing day blizzard sorry I lost ya,

No, my reference to BDB. You most likely saw conditions with heavy snow and winds near 50 where you live.......

jmanley32 wrote:Who is correct ace., maue? DO you think winds could get that bad here ie. NYC area S and E? That's paralyzing! But what were you saying about the boxing day blizzard sorry I lost ya,

Madonne.

Dear Jman,

Winds will not get figured out until tomorrow night's 00z runs. We still do not know exact tracks, how much this storm will deepen, and where the H7 and H85 low's set-up yet. This is huge in determining wind speeds. Best guess now is sustained 30 mph with gusts 40+ mph.

Yours Truly,

Frank

Math23x7 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Want to see 18z GFS though, and again what is BDB? Ace answered me about maues comment on 40-70mph wind gusts. Also I believe it was 2/16 not 2/17.

BDB = Boxing Day Blizzard [of 2010]

Ugh, 8"ish here with 20+ 10 miles or so east, I want to forget that storm, id prefer this to be like the 2011 miller Bs or last years miller A or '06 where a lot of ppl get a dump..Obviously fantasy would be '96 or '03 redux where the whole region was covered in feet but those are few and far between.

Yes I meant the upper end I think wind gusts around my area hit the lower end of that ace, isn;t "B" word criteria 35mph or higher? And as I recall it has nothing to do with how much snow is forecasted, but more duration of the snow and winds and visibility?

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Want to see 18z GFS though, and again what is BDB? Ace answered me about maues comment on 40-70mph wind gusts. Also I believe it was 2/16 not 2/17.

BDB = Boxing Day Blizzard [of 2010]

Ugh, 8"ish here with 20+ 10 miles or so east, I want to forget that storm, id prefer this to be like the 2011 miller Bs or last years miller A or '06 where a lot of ppl get a dump..Obviously fantasy would be '96 or '03 redux where the whole region was covered in feet but those are few and far between.

LOL Tom I remember how annoyed you were in the weeks following the storm over how you got shafted by BDB.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Who is correct ace., maue? DO you think winds could get that bad here ie. NYC area S and E? That's paralyzing! But what were you saying about the boxing day blizzard sorry I lost ya,

Madonne.

Dear Jman,

Winds will not get figured out until tomorrow night's 00z runs. We still do not know exact tracks, how much this storm will deepen, and where the H7 and H85 low's set-up yet. This is huge in determining wind speeds. Best guess now is sustained 30 mph with gusts 40+ mph.

Yours Truly,

Frank

NJ it seems like ever since I left home in CT they get all the extreme weather and I miss it here, go figure.