Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Who is correct ace., maue? DO you think winds could get that bad here ie. NYC area S and E? That's paralyzing! But what were you saying about the boxing day blizzard sorry I lost ya,

Madonne.

Dear Jman,

Winds will not get figured out until tomorrow night's 00z runs. We still do not know exact tracks, how much this storm will deepen, and where the H7 and H85 low's set-up yet. This is huge in determining wind speeds. Best guess now is sustained 30 mph with gusts 40+ mph.

Yours Truly,

Frank

NJ it seems like ever since I left home in CT they get all the extreme weather and I miss it here, go figure.

I've been waiting to see what Mr Goldberg has to say. he chimed in and said Saturday we will see a rain/snow storm hug the coast more on that later to come. Bill was avoiding it at noon lol

jmanley32 wrote:Yes I meant the upper end I think wind gusts around my area hit the lower end of that ace, isn;t "B" word criteria 35mph or higher?  And as I recall it has nothing to do with how much snow is forecasted, but more duration of the snow and winds and visibility?

Blizzard: A storm producing winds of 35 mph or more with snow and/or blowing snow
reducing visibility to less than ¼ mile for at least 3 hours.

A Blizzard Watch is issued 12 to 48 hours before the event and a Blizzard Warning within 36
hours when there is a high level of confidence that the event will occur.

Gee Frank I didn't hear the sarchasm in that one! Its all good, that's why I like this forum we have fun. But sorry I know I am pesky with the wind thing, its moreso my interest if we get a "B" warning or not. Your right no reason to even discuss that sorry, just been excited and I certainly hope it pans out to be great.

RJB8525 wrote:I've been waiting to see what Mr Goldberg has to say. he chimed in and said  Saturday we will see a rain/snow storm hug the coast more on that later to come. Bill was avoiding it at noon lol

They won't say anything until tomorrow's 6:00 news! They are waaayyyy too conservative...

UPTON:

"THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z
ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850
MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW
EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY.
WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A
MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING."

I was close Ace, hey I do know some things heh. Off to go to dinner with the wife will check in later tonight (who am I kidding im gonna be on my phone checking the 18z gfs lol.

Dear lord soulsing that is not good on two points, we get skunked again and that's a dangerouns amount of ice, last sat would be nothing compared to ice and MAYBE (for u Frank lol) some wind. Frank what is your take on that, its a total turn in the works?

SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON:

"THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z
ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850
MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW
EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY.
WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A
MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING."

yup here we go

Looking at the setup I do not see a strong HP to the N or the NW that is providing that tight pressure gradient and thus channeling the winds to the surface. Right now if it played out exactly like the 12z EURO I believe it would end up very similar to last year 2/16, powerful sub 985 storm off of NJ but no strong HP means weak winds. Steady breeze maybe 10-20 is the max it got to highest gust maybe 25, s and e obviously windier.

jmanley32 wrote:Dear lord soulsing that is not good on two points, we get skunked again and that's a dangerouns amount of ice, last sat would be nothing compared to ice and MAYBE (for u Frank lol) some wind.  Frank what is your take on that, its a total turn in the works?

It wouldn't even be an epic ice storm. It would be rain here and sleet along the river and then snow inland. We, and I repeat, do NOT get epic ice storms in NYC proper. It just hasn't happened, I've researched it. Outside the city yes, but this mixing point Upton addresses is worrisome.

jmanley32 wrote:Gee Frank I didn't hear the sarchasm in that one! Its all good, that's why I like this forum we have fun.  But sorry I know I am pesky with the wind thing, its moreso my interest if we get a "B" warning or not.  Your right no reason to even discuss that sorry, just been excited and I certainly hope it pans out to be great.

Jman, as you know a blizzard has nothing to do with snow amounts just visability and winds as Ace posted.

I've been through blizzards and blizzard warnings in the midwest that saw a total of 6 or so inches of snow. It's open plains and high winds make it blizzard conditions even though snowfalls are relatively light.

Give me 2 feet of snow and the winds can be calm for all I care. Throw some fog in to boot.

Yeah, there wouldn't be too much ice along the coastal plain. Ice only readily accumulates when the precipitation rates are light and temperatures are significantly below freezing. With the moderate to heavy rates and borderline surface temperatures, a short period of freezing rain would be followed by plain rain. I wouldn't get concerned with the details yet, though; too many large variables at play until Friday 00z runs at the earliest.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Gee Frank I didn't hear the sarchasm in that one! Its all good, that's why I like this forum we have fun.  But sorry I know I am pesky with the wind thing, its moreso my interest if we get a "B" warning or not.  Your right no reason to even discuss that sorry, just been excited and I certainly hope it pans out to be great.

Jman, as you know a blizzard has nothing to do with snow amounts just visability and winds as Ace posted.

I've been through blizzards and blizzard warnings in the midwest that saw a total of 6 or so inches of snow. It's open plains and high winds make it blizzard conditions even though snowfalls are relatively light.

Give me 2 feet of snow and the winds can be calm for all I care. Throw some fog in to boot.

i think a lot of people confuse this, i was one of them

i thought it had to be a certain amount of snow plus wind sustained for long periods and 0 visibility

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Gee Frank I didn't hear the sarchasm in that one! Its all good, that's why I like this forum we have fun.  But sorry I know I am pesky with the wind thing, its moreso my interest if we get a "B" warning or not.  Your right no reason to even discuss that sorry, just been excited and I certainly hope it pans out to be great.

Jman, as you know a blizzard has nothing to do with snow amounts just visability and winds as Ace posted.

I've been through blizzards and blizzard warnings in the midwest that saw a total of 6 or so inches of snow. It's open plains and high winds make it blizzard conditions even though snowfalls are relatively light.

Give me 2 feet of snow and the winds can be calm for all I care. Throw some fog in to boot.

'03, LP was like 1003 mb at deepest yet dumped a huge swath of 2 feet plus over the whole area, barely any winds, just 2 days of heavy dumping snow. Would take anyday.

soul I am north of New York City thats why its concerning we got a lot of ice last Saturday. The reports of my friends

makes sense about the heavy precip but it's also possible that the precip is not as heavy and therefore it does cause I think although there is no way that I am asking for an ice storm this is concerning to me I want that snow

I hear Lucy in the closet and she's looking for something.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Gee Frank I didn't hear the sarchasm in that one! Its all good, that's why I like this forum we have fun.  But sorry I know I am pesky with the wind thing, its moreso my interest if we get a "B" warning or not.  Your right no reason to even discuss that sorry, just been excited and I certainly hope it pans out to be great.

Jman, as you know a blizzard has nothing to do with snow amounts just visability and winds as Ace posted.

I've been through blizzards and blizzard warnings in the midwest that saw a total of 6 or so inches of snow. It's open plains and high winds make it blizzard conditions even though snowfalls are relatively light.

Give me 2 feet of snow and the winds can be calm for all I care. Throw some fog in to boot.

'03, LP was like 1003 mb at deepest yet dumped a huge swath of 2 feet plus over the whole area, barely any winds, just 2 days of heavy dumping snow. Would take anyday.

Exactly Tom, one of my all time favorites. Who needs the wind, that was a thing of beauty. I got 30 inches here and no drifts, it was beautiful.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Gee Frank I didn't hear the sarchasm in that one! Its all good, that's why I like this forum we have fun.  But sorry I know I am pesky with the wind thing, its moreso my interest if we get a "B" warning or not.  Your right no reason to even discuss that sorry, just been excited and I certainly hope it pans out to be great.

Jman, as you know a blizzard has nothing to do with snow amounts just visability and winds as Ace posted.

I've been through blizzards and blizzard warnings in the midwest that saw a total of 6 or so inches of snow. It's open plains and high winds make it blizzard conditions even though snowfalls are relatively light.

Give me 2 feet of snow and the winds can be calm for all I care. Throw some fog in to boot.

'03, LP was like 1003 mb at deepest yet dumped a huge swath of 2 feet plus over the whole area, barely any winds, just 2 days of heavy dumping snow. Would take anyday.

Exactly Tom, one of my all time favorites. Who needs  the wind, that was a thing of  beauty. I got 30 inches here and no drifts, it was beautiful.

We did have pretty good wind here along the coast.

It isn't the pressure of the low that matters so much as it's the differnece between the high and low- the gradient.

In 2003, we had a near-record strong high to the north.

any of the pros here went to chime in on what was said by the National Weather Service that is a huge turn around I seriously hope they are wrong

jmanley32 wrote:any of the pros here went to chime in on what was said by the National Weather Service that is a huge turn around I seriously hope they are wrong

I really have no idea what they were doing this afternoon to be honest.

I mean I can't see a model that has a mostly rain event all the way to 287, can anyone else?

And this sure as hell doesn't look like a freezing rain event.

There is no damming type high, and it isn't a big inversion scenario.

I could see it snow at 33 or 34 more than freezing rain in this setup.

Sleet could be possible at times with the warm pockets aloft, but freezing rain, no way.

What did they say?

FWIW 18z GFS OP is WAY east lol

Analog96 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:any of the pros here went to chime in on what was said by the National Weather Service that is a huge turn around I seriously hope they are wrong

I really have no idea what they were doing this afternoon to be honest.

I mean I can't see a model that has a mostly rain event all the way to 287, can anyone else?

And this sure as hell doesn't look like a freezing rain event.

There is no damming type high, and it isn't a big inversion scenario.

I could see it snow at 33 or 34 more than freezing rain in this setup.

Sleet could be possible at times with the warm pockets aloft, but freezing rain, no way.

100% correct.

rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z GFS OP is WAY east lol

I know it's the 18Z but, that's not what I want to hear.