Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

devsman wrote:so has a mayor ever canceled NYC public schools when Ice has accumulated? Cause this can be a real problem.

I know i sound like a broken record of Frozen, but Let it Go. ;-)

Ice will not accumulate much in the city. It just never does, historically speaking. I would be the first one to admit I was wrong if it comes to fruition though. Just don't expect it...more snow, then sleet. then rain despite the temp then back to snow. I don't expect much accretion.

the city in manhattan? I agree. But the boroughs? I work in northern queens by the throgs neck bridge. Subways keep manhattan streets warmer. outer boroughs, not so much.

devsman, agreed, seen ice in the bronx and def outer suburbs like here in yonkers, but never the amount they are forecasting.

But even Franks scroll says chances are increasing for NYC, and I know Frank is very careful with ice accretion so I would take heed if things keep trending in this direction, certainly has been a roller coaster.

devsman wrote:the city in manhattan? I agree. But the boroughs? I work in northern queens by the throgs neck bridge. Subways keep manhattan streets warmer. outer boroughs, not so much.

Even the boroughs do not have a recorded ice storm in history with >.25 accretion, to the best of my knowledge.

I live on the island. 4 or 5 years ago, I had atleast .1 to .15 of ice and I called in and said i wouldn't be at my school til 4th period til the ice melts. This one sounds worse. I hope your right soul.

Been forecasted many times around here in cnj in the lower elevations far from the coast yet very rarely verifies. Exceptions being 93, 94, 07 being the ones that come to mind immediately.. Mt.. Holly forecasting. 1-.25" ZR, I doubt it because of marginal temps  and high precip rates unless we see a south shift.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Been forecasted many times around here in cnj in the lower elevations far from the coast yet very rarely verifies. Exceptions being 93, 94, 07 being the ones that come to mind immediately.. Mt.. Holly forecasting. 1-.25" ZR, I doubt it because of marginal temps  and high precip rates unless we see a south shift.

That's the other thing; precip rates.

The biggest Ice storms in history have occurred from a prolonged moderate rainfall. When it comes down too hard, it sometimes nulls & voids the whole freezing on contact.

SoulSingMG wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Been forecasted many times around here in cnj in the lower elevations far from the coast yet very rarely verifies. Exceptions being 93, 94, 07 being the ones that come to mind immediately.. Mt.. Holly forecasting. 1-.25" ZR, I doubt it because of marginal temps  and high precip rates unless we see a south shift.

That's the other thing; precip rates.

The biggest Ice storms in history have occurred from a prolonged moderate rainfall. When it comes down too hard, it sometimes nulls & voids the whole freezing on contact.

this is a valid point, does not mean some of it won't though, just something we need to take caution to and if it does not happen then we are fine, if it did we are prepared, unlike many people who like stated earlier do not think ice is as bad as snow. Seems like its a very visual thing.

Front end on the NAM looks much wetter at 27.

Hour 30, 32 line a bit further south than 18z.

Hour 33 dumping snow it seems from NYC north

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Been forecasted many times around here in cnj in the lower elevations far from the coast yet very rarely verifies. Exceptions being 93, 94, 07 being the ones that come to mind immediately.. Mt.. Holly forecasting. 1-.25" ZR, I doubt it because of marginal temps  and high precip rates unless we see a south shift.

That's the other thing; precip rates.

The biggest Ice storms in history have occurred from a prolonged moderate rainfall. When it comes down too hard, it sometimes nulls & voids the whole freezing on contact.

this is a valid point, does not mean some of it won't though, just something we need to take caution to and if it does not happen then we are fine, if it did we are prepared, unlike many people who like stated earlier do not think ice is as bad as snow.  Seems like its a very visual thing.

Agreed. I've said it before, ice storms are some of the worst WX events, period.

That front-end thump of snow on the 00z NAM looks major for NNJ, NYC.

Definitely further south and colder, hopefully bodes well for the rest of the night.

Yes, hang on ill get the snow map despite what frank says, we need some kind of boost, it was all cold from just south of NYC on north, sweet, but remain cautious.

nam snow map out only till 7am Monday

850's def colder hr 36

still heavy ice for NYC NJ and southern CT, when 4k nam comes out will have breakdown totals, snow map from wxbell useless as does not break it down but verbatim shows 6-10 nyc

omg the biggest change is yhat the storm is much faster

dear lord PA gets iced!

it is al, in and out, and only 1000mb

18z

00z

Guys don't fool with my heart like this lmao

Gonna wait for e wall to update to get the close view of all the layers to see what were dealing with and compare to 18z. Does look def colder But im sure theres still rain involved for I-80 south.

Soundings on the latest 00z NAM show know rain for NYC. Snow to sleet back to snow.

This is a crappy model though.

Would like to see gfs.

No rain*