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February 7th-9th Observations

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank and it continues through hour 12 so far, 02z still coming in, how is the hrrr?

At this range pretty good but it's had its moments of busts

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:30 pm

36* haven't seen any type of precip yet mostly everything is wet already from melting going on today
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:30 pm

Frank, still 9am, thats 6 hours so far for ice,but I noticed that the intensity even for the snow is high right around the icing area, is this run picking up on that convective area u spoke about moving in here?  I may not be going anywhere in the morning.

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Hrrr_r13
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:33 pm

when you go through the hour by hour loop on the rgem there is almost no fzr for entire area. its mostly sleet. this would make more sense as temps at all layers should be crashing esp surface
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:34 pm

Seems like it will be a very safe idea to not go anywhere Jman if it can be helped any type of morning commute i'm staying away from lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:36 pm

your possibly right Al, but its a fine line and sleet can still be pretty bad especially if its mixed w/ frz.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:39 pm

also hrrr is sleet at 7am
February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Hrrr_east-us_00945_precip_type
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:39 pm

Red is freezing rain.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:40 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Seems like it will be a very safe idea to not go anywhere Jman if it can be helped any type of morning commute i'm staying away from lol

ill take a look in the morning if cars are all over the place I can call in a sick day, have a baby to worry about and do not need to get in a accident, I am a good driver but depending on the type of precip if its ice no one can drive on that.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Red is freezing rain.

yeah so looks like a lot of it will be sleet, but i imagine there will be some frz at least at the start, if its all sleet i can probably drive.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:49 pm

gfs show a nice amount of moisture between 4am and 1om. 850s are falling below 0* at the same time. interesting
February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Gfs_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip
February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Gfs_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:52 pm

I'd rather have sleet than freezing rain, at least sleet accumulates like snow and it looks nice. Although of course I think we all would prefer snow more than anything else.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:52 pm

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Ice_st10

Pink = Freezing Rain
Purple = Snow
Green = Rain

Current Radar
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:55 pm

29* temp dropped quick, point and click has me getting to 23* tonight.

Currently cloudy with a light accumulation of sleet on all surfaces. Not even going to stay up for this. Hoping we will all be pleasantly surprised in the morning. Good luck all.


Last edited by snow247 on Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:57 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:55 pm

not bad if this verifies
February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Gfs_asnow_us_7
but its basically on its own
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:01 pm

And how is the GFS any good at this point?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:06 pm

Between the RAP, HRRR, and GFS...Radar should show precip in southern areas tomorrow.

Going to bed. Night !

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:06 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:And how is the GFS any good at this point?

Jman, I don't think any model is good at this point. It's a true nowcast; or, a true "Go to bed and possibly wake up pleasantly surprised-cast" lmao

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:08 pm

or unpleasently if its icing.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:09 pm

Current Radar with 850mb Temps Overlay still above freezing............

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Ice_st11

Current Radar with Surface Temps Overlay below freezing............. = Freezing Rain

February 7th-9th Observations  - Page 6 Ice_st12

Such cool software
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:12 pm

its raining and 37 at Scranton cloudy and 25 at Montauk. in the teens in most of conn. 30 at Montgomery. very odd temp profiles at this hour
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:16 pm

@algae888 wrote:its raining and 37 at Scranton cloudy and 25 at Montauk. in the teens in most of conn. 30 at Montgomery. very odd temp profiles at this hour

Look at the surface temp radar map I just posted 850 is warm and below is freezing.......
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:17 pm

Down to 30° now

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:18 pm

@algae888 wrote:its raining and 37 at Scranton cloudy and 25 at Montauk. in the teens in most of conn. 30 at Montgomery. very odd temp profiles at this hour

Here in NE PA elevation is playing an absolutely critical role. I live 25 minutes due east of Scranton and I have yet to see rain here since the event began. We've run the gambit of winter weather; although no freezing rain and only very little sleet. It's pretty much been flurries and extremely light snow showers here, but it hasn't been a "true" snow. The flakes have been heavily rimed, most likely because of a lack of adequate forcing and subsequent widespread crystal formation.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:23 pm

Good night all, and best of luck to everybody!! I hope we all get the white gold and none of that clear, hard and cold stuff!!!

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