February 7th-9th Observations

total snow fall rgem

rgem also has ice at 7am but it looks like sleet.

Rb this storm is just getting started some totals will be met I think some peolpe are going to get good snows and unfortunately ice.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank and it continues through hour 12 so far, 02z still coming in, how is the hrrr?

At this range pretty good but it's had its moments of busts

36* haven't seen any type of precip yet mostly everything is wet already from melting going on today

Frank, still 9am, thats 6 hours so far for ice,but I noticed that the intensity even for the snow is high right around the icing area, is this run picking up on that convective area u spoke about moving in here?  I may not be going anywhere in the morning.

when you go through the hour by hour loop on the rgem there is almost no fzr for entire area. its mostly sleet. this would make more sense as temps at all layers should be crashing esp surface

Seems like it will be a very safe idea to not go anywhere Jman if it can be helped any type of morning commute i'm staying away from lol

your possibly right Al, but its a fine line and sleet can still be pretty bad especially if its mixed w/ frz.

also hrrr is sleet at 7am

Red is freezing rain.

RJB8525 wrote:Seems like it will be a very safe idea to not go anywhere Jman if it can be helped any type of morning commute i'm staying away from lol

ill take a look in the morning if cars are all over the place I can call in a sick day, have a baby to worry about and do not need to get in a accident, I am a good driver but depending on the type of precip if its ice no one can drive on that.

Frank_Wx wrote:Red is freezing rain.

yeah so looks like a lot of it will be sleet, but i imagine there will be some frz at least at the start, if its all sleet i can probably drive.

gfs show a nice amount of moisture between 4am and 1om. 850s are falling below 0* at the same time. interesting

I'd rather have sleet than freezing rain, at least sleet accumulates like snow and it looks nice. Although of course I think we all would prefer snow more than anything else.

Pink = Freezing Rain
Purple = Snow
Green = Rain

Current Radar

29* temp dropped quick, point and click has me getting to 23* tonight.

Currently cloudy with a light accumulation of sleet on all surfaces. Not even going to stay up for this. Hoping we will all be pleasantly surprised in the morning. Good luck all.

not bad if this verifies

but its basically on its own

And how is the GFS any good at this point?

Between the RAP, HRRR, and GFS...Radar should show precip in southern areas tomorrow.

Going to bed. Night !

jmanley32 wrote:And how is the GFS any good at this point?

Jman, I don't think any model is good at this point. It's a true nowcast; or, a true "Go to bed and possibly wake up pleasantly surprised-cast" lmao

or unpleasently if its icing.

Current Radar with 850mb Temps Overlay still above freezing............



Current Radar with Surface Temps Overlay below freezing............. = Freezing Rain



Such cool software

its raining and 37 at Scranton cloudy and 25 at Montauk. in the teens in most of conn. 30 at Montgomery. very odd temp profiles at this hour

algae888 wrote:its raining and 37 at Scranton cloudy and 25 at Montauk. in the teens in most of conn. 30 at Montgomery. very odd temp profiles at this hour

Look at the surface temp radar map I just posted 850 is warm and below is freezing.......

Down to 30° now

algae888 wrote:its raining and 37 at Scranton cloudy and 25 at Montauk. in the teens in most of conn. 30 at Montgomery. very odd temp profiles at this hour

Here in NE PA elevation is playing an absolutely critical role. I live 25 minutes due east of Scranton and I have yet to see rain here since the event began. We've run the gambit of winter weather; although no freezing rain and only very little sleet. It's pretty much been flurries and extremely light snow showers here, but it hasn't been a "true" snow. The flakes have been heavily rimed, most likely because of a lack of adequate forcing and subsequent widespread crystal formation.

Good night all, and best of luck to everybody!! I hope we all get the white gold and none of that clear, hard and cold stuff!!!