FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Roidzilla for LI, Godzilla for NYC, NNJ, southern NY

I wish the GFS was on our side though. GGEM also looks a little funky. Uhg, I hope EURO supports it tonight.

very nice

I am going to end this night on a positive note with the GGEM. Hopefully I will start my morning off on a positive note with the EURO. I'll remind you all of the 3 key features we need for this storm, which the GGEM has:

1. Amplified western ridge (not for entire duration of the storm, just to get the pieces we need in proper place).

2. H5 vort south of CNJ

3. Trough axis negatively tilted

GGEM snow map: multiply these amounts by 2

Actually, 2.5 in some spots and maybe even 3 due to ratios.

I'll take 3 frank but 2 is MORE than fine with me, would be biggest snow yet for me! Come on ya can't stay up for Euro, I slept all evening so I am set to go, you gotta get to that grind so do I but im wide awake now. So hope the euro is similar at least.

jmanley32 wrote:I'll take 3 frank but 2 is MORE than fine with me, would be biggest snow yet for me!  Come on ya can't stay up for Euro, I slept all evening so I am set to go, you gotta get to that grind so do I but im wide awake now.  So hope the euro is similar at least.  

Maybe I'll check in. It'll be a surprise.

what did the gefs show on storm vista?

Hmmm they might be slightly south of the OP

Euro

It came in north of 12z, and blows up off cape cod, guess who gets wolloped, not giving up but 00z cmc is on its own, we get a little snow with the euro and some very intense wind and cold.

Good night

10:1 is 3 inches NYC, as frank said probably double or even triple the totals i imagine especially north of the city. Not terrible but not like CMC, well onto tomorrow, still few days to go as we know a lot can change.

actually yes you know who gets hit but NH and maine get a huge roidzilla maybe even frankzilla, grrrr lol

Vinnydula wrote:Good night

hey man i feel ya

Well, NWS has me for 2 to 5 so good!

An inch today, 2 to 5 Sat and another possibility for a few inches next week.And with this cold, it's going nowhere but up in the snowpack.

GUYS: Reminder...Valentines Day is coming up.Make sure you don't forget it and have cards and gifts ready for your honey's, Mom and Sister (s)!! Otherwise, in the doghouse you go!!!

So GFS holds serve as of last night that's like 4 runs in row it hasn't caved at all. At this point I'm not expecting much for the Cnj coast

6Z GFS is further south so some improvement but still not great for us but maybe trending there, let's hope.

If we get 2-4 out of this I'll be happy, unless you live on eastern LI or somehow get lucky enough to be under the inverted trough which the latest GFS doesn't even show, to expect anymore people would be just setting themselves up for major disappointment. This has never been advertised as anything more than a light to moderate event.

Of course there's always last nights CMC which can let us dream fairly big but there always seems to be one model at least that teases us this year.

Euro aloft did not change so much. The surface did but I'm still not worried about the surface or precip when it comes to inverted trough's. The 6z gfs aloft came further south. Right now, there's pretty good agreement of the H5 low getting as far south as NYC. CMC has it south of NYC. We need it literally 60 miles more south on thr GFS. So close.

Yeah the gfs came way south
h this morning was happy to see that.

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro aloft did not change so much. The surface did but I'm still not worried about the surface or precip when it comes to inverted trough's. The 6z gfs aloft came further south. Right now, there's pretty good agreement of the H5 low getting as far south as NYC. CMC has it south of NYC. We need it literally 60 miles more south on thr GFS. So close.

Yeah Frank Euro H5 actualkly looked pretty good with its track justS of LI. I was a bit surprised when I looked at the surface. Euro surface does not match up well with the H5 soln. Still have a little ways to go with this one.

PS I hate you GFS and 500mb low track.

Real nice analysis from Met Joe Cioffi of what the various models are showing at 500mb and how it will affect the surface depending on whats right. This is my favorite line:

I wish I could say I had a rough idea at this point but when the model range goes from one giving you a few inches to another giving you about 6 and a third giving you 12 to 18 with a full Blizzard from New York City to Boston you don't want to just throw a dart. So we wait a little longer.

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/european.html

At this point where do I sit Cnj coast a couple inches or more?

Scott - the energy or Northern Vort is over the arctic circle - North Pole so it is in a sparse ROAB region but we should know more by 0Z runs tonight if not 12Z runs tomorrow. A blend of the 3 global models would be nice though at this juncture.

skinsfan1177 wrote:At this point where do I sit Cnj coast a couple inches or more?

I know you want a more definitive answer but both are very possible. Stay tuned.

Hey Sroc4 i am over in centereach on the island as well.. gut feeling what do you think we get?

Hey fellas. Just checking in for the morning runs. Question? Other than the upper vort being modeled slightly south on the last few runs of where it was yesterday, what has changed? The Euro which is traditionally the best model actually went north! Compared to yesterday IMHO we really haven't changed much good or bad. We're right on the fence as we've been all winter so................ Also what does the western ridge look like as of this morning's models for Saturday?

NWS Upton not very enthused. If you read the NWS discussion out of Massachusets they are very confident of an all-out blizzard with concerns about wind damage and tidal surge!! Why not us for once?