FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL

Hey Sroc4 i am over in centereach on the island as well.. gut feeling what do you think we get?

Hey fellas. Just checking in for the morning runs. Question? Other than the upper vort being modeled slightly south on the last few runs of where it was yesterday, what has changed? The Euro which is traditionally the best model actually went north! Compared to yesterday IMHO we really haven't changed much good or bad. We're right on the fence as we've been all winter so................ Also what does the western ridge look like as of this morning's models for Saturday?

NWS Upton not very enthused. If you read the NWS discussion out of Massachusets they are very confident of an all-out blizzard with concerns about wind damage and tidal surge!! Why not us for once?

HEATMISER wrote:Hey Sroc4 i am over in centereach on the island as well.. gut feeling what do you think we get?

Gun to my head I think we are in a good spot right now for 6". I lean more to higher than I do to lower at this point but the most important model runs are yet to come.

Good question syosnow, why the south trend on some of the other models? From an educational stand point what would be driving that? Is the ridge out west hanging tough causing for digging? Just curious to know if there is anything that explain a better trend or is this just model variation but the drivers of weather havent changed and this will cont to trend north

lglickman1 wrote:Good question syosnow, why the south trend on some of the other models?  From an educational stand point what would be driving that?  Is the ridge out west hanging tough causing for digging?  Just curious to know if there is anything that explain a better trend or is this just model variation but the drivers of weather havent changed and this will cont to trend north

Hate to say it but I agree. Besides the meteorological science pointing this way we only have to look at what has happened so far this winter. Somehow, Some way just give me .4 QPF!!

syosnow94 wrote:Hey fellas.  Just checking in for the morning runs.  Question?  Other than the upper vort being modeled slightly south on the last few runs of where it was yesterday, what has changed?  The Euro which is traditionally the best model actually went north!  Compared to yesterday IMHO we really haven't changed much good or bad.  We're right on the fence as we've been all winter so................  Also what does the western ridge look like as of this morning's models for Saturday?

NWS Upton not very enthused.  If you read the NWS discussion out of Massachusets they are very confident of an all-out blizzard with concerns about wind damage and tidal surge!!  Why not us for once?

James Euro at 500mb is actually almost identical in its 500mb low track. But the energy embedded within the trough is what was handled diff. All model noise if you ask me (aka run to run deviation). The most important data is yet to come. Like Mugs said 00z and 12z tomorrow is vital. 12z today important too to look for trends. I am not going to get into detailed analysis because there is still too much range in the solns. Go to the link I posted above from Joe Cioffi. He does a great job explaining the variations and why its not wise to jump to any conclusions yet. Just keep in the back of your minds the collapsing ridge and the lack of true blocking.

I copied and pasted this line from sroc4's post above.  "Just keep in the back of your minds the collapsing ridge and the lack of true blocking."

It's not in the back of my mind it's front and center.  This is why I won't allow myself to buy into and kind of significant snow event for our area!! I've seen it too many times the past few weeks.  Gun to my head we get 2 to 4" area wide followed by brutal cold as we watch the storm EXPLODE by Cape Cod burying you know who under 2 feet!!

Hope I'm dead wrong.

I'll check in again after 1:00 once the Euro comes out.

SREFS went even more south. Wow!

Lets keep the trend going for the next 24-36 hours and then I think all will feel more comfortable with this storm. Let em, point out that the SREF's are notorious for being North from what I have read. Come on baby 12 z runs today need to show ticks south as well - I am not putting faith at all into the 18z runs - from what I have rad again that the data is not all encompassing like the 12z and 0Z since we do not send up as many balloons for the 18Z runs - why you ask??Lack of money - WTH with a 2 trillion dollar national budget - give me a break!!

Like the rends need 2-3 more runs peeps like this and i feel then we go game on - crazy set up IMO but I'll take teh crumb or cake whatever MN wants to give me here.

FYI the 0z Euro ENS mean has .25" to .50" qpf from NYC NE. SW of NYC .10" to .25" qpf - that I will take in heartbeat - lets move that down a bit !!

amugs wrote:Lets keep the trend going for the next 24-36 hours and then I think all will feel more comfortable with this storm. Let em, point out that the SREF's are notorious for being North from what I have read. Come on baby 12 z runs today need to show ticks south as well - I am not putting faith at all into the 18z runs - from what I have rad again that the data is not all encompassing like the 12z and 0Z since we do not send up as many balloons for the 18Z runs - why you ask??Lack of money - WTH with a 2 trillion dollar national budget - give me a break!!

Like the rends need 2-3 more runs peeps like this and i feel then we go game on - crazy set up IMO but I'll take teh crumb or cake whatever MN wants to give me here.

FYI the 0z Euro ENS mean has .25" to .50" qpf from NYC NE.  SW of NYC .10" to .25" qpf - that I will take in heartbeat - lets move that down a bit !!

Just want to correct you on your comment about the balloons, because this is a very common source of confusion. The only balloon launches that are done are 00z/12z. Any other launches are only done for extreme circumstances (i.e. severe weather outbreaks, major landfalling hurricanes, major nor-easters, etc.) The 06z and 18z runs DO NOT include any upper air data, they are initialized off of tweaks to the 00z/12z six-hour forecasts and then run. So, for a 06z run, it is initialized with the data from the six-hour forecast from the preceding 00z run, which are then just tweaked ever so slightly to try to match current observations as best as possible. Then the model runs. For 18z, its initialization is run on the six-hour forecast from the preceding 12z run. This is why a lot of forecasters, myself included, do not pay much attention to the 06z/18z runs, because they do not actually have the hard observations being ingested in their algorithms; instead, they have "guestimations". This leads to quicker exponential decay in the solutions, and is the reason why you see large swings in the medium range.

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS went even more south. Wow!

Wow that is south, this is a good thing, where do you stand on sref at this far out (what are we about 84 hrs out now or less?). BTW Frank do you think, and judging by the consistency of the models on the cold and wind that wind headlines will be made as we get closer to sat night/sun? I have seen various maps showing our area with gusting winds anywhere from 40-65mph+ (highest on LI). TWC has 25-35 sustained for me sun and innaccuwx has 30 sustained 60- gusts fwiw. I know its a crap shoot but unlike the summer as you explained winds are more "zonal" did you say? Therefore I believe the numbers will not be far off personally, most models agree on at least advisory level winds and for quite a long duration. And I do not need a personalized letter from you thanks lol, this is a serious observation and was wondering why you have not mentioned it because if we hit the higher end a whole new problem comes in with possible power outages with this kinda winds, and with the cold that is the last thing any one needs especially the elderly sick and children.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS went even more south. Wow!

Wow that is south, this is a good thing, where do you stand on sref at this far out (what are we about 84 hrs out now or less?).  BTW Frank do you think, and judging by the consistency of the models on the cold and wind that wind headlines will be made as we get closer to sat night/sun? I have seen various maps showing our area with gusting winds anywhere from 40-65mph+ (highest on LI). TWC has 25-35 sustained for me sun and innaccuwx has 30 sustained 60- gusts fwiw.  I know its a crap shoot but unlike the summer as you explained winds are more "zonal" did you say?  Therefore I believe the numbers will not be far off personally, most models agree on at least advisory level winds and for quite a long duration.  And I do not need a personalized letter from you thanks lol, this is a serious observation and was wondering why you have not mentioned it because if we hit the higher end a whole new problem comes in with possible power outages with this kinda winds,  and with the cold that is the last thing any one needs especially the elderly sick and children.

Jman some day you're going to have to tell us all why you have this wind fascination, I guess we all find it somewhat interesting, but you seem to be obsessed with it. Was there some incident in childhood that left a lasting impression? If it's to painful forget I asked, I understand.

I don't even want to delve into my past zookeeper experiences, they obviously left me scarred for life.

Jman, We will certainly be on the lookout for the possibility of blowing off of hats, stray flying twigs, and fiercely blowing flags.


just kidding;) although that's how these "wind events" usually turn out.

This was a very well written AFD

A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT WITH RESPECT TO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL COLD AND STRONG, POSSIBLY HIGH WIND IS STILL
ON OR CLOSE TO SCHEDULE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOT MUCH BETTER ON AREA WATERS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS,
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND MAYBE BLOWOUT TIDES.

THE MOST UNCERTAIN ELEMENT IS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRIGGERING CLOSED LOW HAS JUST ENTERED
CANADA AND WILL INITIATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OUR
CWA. THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING LOW WILL FORM A NORLUN TROF WHICH WILL
BE A CONCENTRATED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THIS FEATURE DEPENDS ON THE
EXACT PATH OF THE CLOSED AND SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SUITE
HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE TO EITHER NEW ENGLAND OR
LONG ISLAND/NYC. GIVEN HOW DIFFICULT ITS BEEN TO FORECAST SNOW THIS
WINTER WITH THE NEVER ENDING PARADE OF MILLER B LOWS, ITS TOO EARLY
TO KNOW FOR SURE THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR IN OUR
AREA. OUR PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS HAVE 1-2" SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE/I195 CORRIDOR AND 2-5" NORTH OF THESE CORRIDORS.

THERE IS ANOTHER MOISTURE RICHER CONVENTIONAL LOW PREDICTED TO BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE START. THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A
CHANGE TO NON-SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA, BUT THIS IS TOO
FAR IN THE FUTURE TO KNOW FOR SURE IF OR HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.

FRIDAY...AFTER A VERY COLD START, CONDITIONS WILL RELATIVELY IMPROVE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. SKIES SHOULD
START MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. CONTINUING THE RUNNING THEME
(UNTIL IT PROVES US WRONG) THAT STAT GUIDANCE WILL BE TOO LOW WITH
MAX TEMPS, WE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP. IN FACT, THEY MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS GETS
TRICKY BECAUSE OF SNOW COVER NORTH AND CLOUD THICKNESS, SO HERE WE
STAYED CLOSER TO HOURLY STAT GUIDANCE.

ON SATURDAY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT HAS
SHOWN A TREND AT WARMING THE COASTAL PLAIN FURTHER. IN FACT
PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS ARE NOW CREEPING ABOVE 0C. IN REALITY THIS IS
A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIKELY
POPS IN SNOW ARE BROUGHT TO THE I95 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED BY NIGHTFALL ONCE WE GET
INTO NORTHERN NJ AS WELL AS FROM THE POCONOS TO THE FAR NORTHERN
PHL SUBURBS.

THEN ON SATURDAY EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW
BURST, AS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS
BRING PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS TO 45-55 AND INDICATE SLANTWISE (AT
SEVERAL LEVELS) CONVECTION. THERE IS PREDICTED OMEGA IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION, MORE SO NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE
ANY NORLUN TROF FORMATION WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE SNOW. THERE ARE
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,
DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND THE TRIED BUT TRUE EXPRESSION THAT THERE IS
ALWAYS A SURPRISE UNDER A CLOSED LOW. WE WERE BULLISH BEYOND THE
MODEL PREDICTED QPF WITH THE SNOW.

RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIER SNOW IS PREDICTED TO PRECEDE THE INCREASING
WINDS WHICH SHOULD START CRANKING TOWARD MORNING. THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BOOMING LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH IS ABOUT 20 MB
TIGHTER THAN TONIGHT'S NEAR ADVISORY WIND EVENT. GIVEN A STATUS
QUO IN MODELING PROJECTIONS, WE WOULD EASILY GET INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA,
ESPECIALLY IN DELMARVA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. COUPLED WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS, ITS NOT A WELCOME COMBINATION FOR
POWER OUTAGES.

SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS, AND VERY
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR THIS EVENT
SHOULD LIKELY OCCUR BY THE CONCLUSION OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WE WILL BE RIVALING RECORD LOWS FOR
THE DAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHED. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL THEN START MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH BEYOND DAY 5
SYSTEMS THIS WINTER TO DIVERT MUCH FROM CONTINUITY OR CLIMATOLOGY.

Read what he says about the cold

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS went even more south. Wow!

Wow that is south, this is a good thing, where do you stand on sref at this far out (what are we about 84 hrs out now or less?).  BTW Frank do you think, and judging by the consistency of the models on the cold and wind that wind headlines will be made as we get closer to sat night/sun? I have seen various maps showing our area with gusting winds anywhere from 40-65mph+ (highest on LI). TWC has 25-35 sustained for me sun and innaccuwx has 30 sustained 60- gusts fwiw.  I know its a crap shoot but unlike the summer as you explained winds are more "zonal" did you say?  Therefore I believe the numbers will not be far off personally, most models agree on at least advisory level winds and for quite a long duration.  And I do not need a personalized letter from you thanks lol, this is a serious observation and was wondering why you have not mentioned it because if we hit the higher end a whole new problem comes in with possible power outages with this kinda winds,  and with the cold that is the last thing any one needs especially the elderly sick and children.

Jman some day you're going to have to tell us all why you have this wind fascination, I guess we all find it somewhat interesting, but you seem to be obsessed with it. Was there some incident in childhood that left a lasting impression? If it's to painful forget I asked, I understand.  

I don't even want to delve into my past zookeeper experiences, they obviously left me scarred for life.

It honestly was always the power and destruction they can cause (not that I wish damage to any ones homes or lives, however watching a tree come crashing down is cool to me especially if it does not do anything to structures or power), we had many wind storms in CT where I lived and I spent many times cleaning up the yard from large trees etc. I guess I have a bit of Cantore in me you guys ever seen his wind tunnel video going head on into 155mph winds, I would so do that! I also loved going to the beach in CT during or before a TS and leaning into the wind and it holding my big ass up, its just a powerful invisible force, I love watching the trees swing around and the sound of it when its real strong and now that I have a handheld anemometer that goes up to 89mph without breaking it, I want a storm to really test it out, short of holding it out the window of a car on the highway lol lol, I really love all weather, people do not understand it (you understand the snow piece) but all powerful, and unfortunently destructive weather fascinates me. Don't hate me for this its just always been a passion of mine and everyone tells me I went the wrong route for school and they are 100% right. Its too much to go all the way back now. I enjoy it as a hobby. On another note I guess maybe the very first extreme wind event I experienced that may have left a impression on me was when I was 5 in Gloria (yeah I know I just made some of you feel really old, lol) We were in Lexington MA. The power went out late afternoon, and the howling on the wind was so intense and scary, and then a tree crashed through the front main window of the house and took down the roof of the deck. I do not remember if I was scared or not though I do remember huddling with my cousins which is where we were, their house. It was minimal damage compared to a house down the road that the next morning we saw was literally split in half you could see the entire inside on each side of the tree which went from roof to the ground, both hanvles of the house were still standing, it was very sad, seeing that family in such distress.

Frank_Wx wrote:This was a very well written AFD

A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT WITH RESPECT TO WIND CHILL  
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL COLD AND STRONG, POSSIBLY HIGH WIND IS STILL  
ON OR CLOSE TO SCHEDULE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
NOT MUCH BETTER ON AREA WATERS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS,  
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND MAYBE BLOWOUT TIDES.  

THE MOST UNCERTAIN ELEMENT IS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL  
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRIGGERING CLOSED LOW HAS JUST ENTERED  
CANADA AND WILL INITIATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OUR  
CWA. THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING LOW WILL FORM A NORLUN TROF WHICH WILL  
BE A CONCENTRATED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THIS FEATURE DEPENDS ON THE  
EXACT PATH OF THE CLOSED AND SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SUITE  
HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE TO EITHER NEW ENGLAND OR  
LONG ISLAND/NYC. GIVEN HOW DIFFICULT ITS BEEN TO FORECAST SNOW THIS  
WINTER WITH THE NEVER ENDING PARADE OF MILLER B LOWS, ITS TOO EARLY  
TO KNOW FOR SURE THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR IN OUR  
AREA. OUR PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS HAVE 1-2" SOUTH OF THE PA  
TURNPIKE/I195 CORRIDOR AND 2-5" NORTH OF THESE CORRIDORS.  

THERE IS ANOTHER MOISTURE RICHER CONVENTIONAL LOW PREDICTED TO BRING  
MORE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL  
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE START. THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A  
CHANGE TO NON-SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA, BUT THIS IS TOO  
FAR IN THE FUTURE TO KNOW FOR SURE IF OR HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.  

FRIDAY...AFTER A VERY COLD START, CONDITIONS WILL RELATIVELY IMPROVE  
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. SKIES SHOULD  
START MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING DURING  
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. CONTINUING THE RUNNING THEME  
(UNTIL IT PROVES US WRONG) THAT STAT GUIDANCE WILL BE TOO LOW WITH  
MAX TEMPS, WE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THEM.  

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD  
TEMPERATURES UP. IN FACT, THEY MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS GETS  
TRICKY BECAUSE OF SNOW COVER NORTH AND CLOUD THICKNESS, SO HERE WE  
STAYED CLOSER TO HOURLY STAT GUIDANCE.  

ON SATURDAY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT HAS  
SHOWN A TREND AT WARMING THE COASTAL PLAIN FURTHER. IN FACT  
PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS ARE NOW CREEPING ABOVE 0C. IN REALITY THIS IS  
A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIKELY  
POPS IN SNOW ARE BROUGHT TO THE I95 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE  
AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED BY NIGHTFALL ONCE WE GET  
INTO NORTHERN NJ AS WELL AS FROM THE POCONOS TO THE FAR NORTHERN  
PHL SUBURBS.  

THEN ON SATURDAY EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW  
BURST, AS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS  
BRING PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS TO 45-55 AND INDICATE SLANTWISE (AT  
SEVERAL LEVELS) CONVECTION. THERE IS PREDICTED OMEGA IN THE SNOW  
GROWTH REGION, MORE SO NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE  
ANY NORLUN TROF FORMATION WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE SNOW. THERE ARE  
STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,  
DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND THE TRIED BUT TRUE EXPRESSION THAT THERE IS  
ALWAYS A SURPRISE UNDER A CLOSED LOW. WE WERE BULLISH BEYOND THE  
MODEL PREDICTED QPF WITH THE SNOW.  

RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIER SNOW IS PREDICTED TO PRECEDE THE INCREASING  
WINDS WHICH SHOULD START CRANKING TOWARD MORNING. THE PRESSURE  
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BOOMING LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH IS ABOUT 20 MB  
TIGHTER THAN TONIGHT'S NEAR ADVISORY WIND EVENT. GIVEN A STATUS  
QUO IN MODELING PROJECTIONS, WE WOULD EASILY GET INTO WIND  
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA,  
ESPECIALLY IN DELMARVA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. COUPLED WITH MIN  
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY  
MORNING AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS, ITS NOT A WELCOME COMBINATION FOR  
POWER OUTAGES.  

SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,  
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS, AND VERY  
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR THIS EVENT  
SHOULD LIKELY OCCUR BY THE CONCLUSION OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY  
SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WE WILL BE RIVALING RECORD LOWS FOR  
THE DAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR WITH WIND CHILL  
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHED. AIR MASS MODIFICATION  
WILL THEN START MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.  

WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE STAYED  
CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH BEYOND DAY 5  
SYSTEMS THIS WINTER TO DIVERT MUCH FROM CONTINUITY OR CLIMATOLOGY.  

sounds like this guy is real good, no typos and basically in line with what I was saying about possible wind warning criteria, but where is this this is not upton, at least I do not think it is. Anyways I am going to see if it is upton, thanks for that Frank.

Mt. Holly. Jersey!

12z GFS Op holds its course again.....

Ahh ok thanks syo, odd its soo more detailed on the cold and winds than upton, but upton tends to always tread lightly, I suspect they start to discuss this stuff more tomorrow into sat. And no real tsalk about snow totals or what might be expected, anyways that is a excellent discussion.

rb924119 wrote:12z GFS Op holds its course again.....

fun friggin tastic, sorry for the banter, from what I have been reading most are thinking the southern route is more likely which is good for most if not all of us, and someone will jackpot with that inverted trough where ever it sets up. GFS still needs to prove itself a bit more to me, but it did nail the last big one therefore it def has to be taken into consideration, if euro and cmc stay south I am going on odds for now 2:3 versus 1:3. But that's just me.

Yup, 12z GFS has the closed upper low north of NYC, or right on top of LI. Again, we need this south of us. Well south. And GFS is not budging.

Hmmm comparing it to 6z GFS it does look further south. Maybe by 30 miles or so. Hey, it's still a trend. The foreign models are south of LI and maybe the GFS is still working its way there. I also like that the upper energy looks more compact within the trough.

It's getting there...

Honestly, next Tuesday has the best potential, so in my opinion, whatever we get from this is a bonus lol I was even fortunate enough to pick up 1.6" today so I'm happy

rb924119 wrote:Honestly, next Tuesday has the best potential, so in my opinion, whatever we get from this is a bonus lol I was even fortunate enough to pick up 1.6" today so I'm happy

Yea, I have always liked next week's system better than this one. It's more of a clear-cut pattern. If anything, this weekend system will be a good learning experience for me. Never really tracked a high potential norlun trough