Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

by **amugs** Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:25 pm

I think between April 3rd and April 7th we have to watch for one last hurrah from winter. JB has eluded to this time frame as well, he thinks April 10th is the last of winter. Only time will tell but LOTS if time to go as we all know.

by **Math23x7** Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:32 pm

You guys might like this. This is a video of elders (from California) reacting to the video montage of Jim Cantore in MA during the thundersnow last February.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:11 pm

The NYC snowfall average since January 1991 is now 30.6 inches, the monthly averages since then are as follows.

October 0.1 - yes this is the first time NYC will have a numerical average in October
November 0.3
December 5.4
January 8.5
February 11.3
March 4.6
April 0.2

Yes I realize the monthly averages add to 30.4 inches it's because of rounding.

If there is no more snow until December 2020, God forbid, the new 30 year average for 1991-2020 will be 25.3 inches.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:14 pm

Wow, imlressive.

by **Math23x7** Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The NYC snowfall average since January 1991 is now 30.6 inches, the monthly averages since then are as follows.

October 0.1 - yes this is the first time NYC will have a numerical average in October
November 0.3
December 5.4
January 8.5
February 11.3
March 4.6
April 0.2

Yes I realize the monthly averages add to 30.4 inches it's because of rounding.

If there is no more snow until December 2020, God forbid, the new 30 year average for 1991-2020 will be 25.3 inches.

Well, using the monthly snow totals I put onto Excel (last updated Tuesday with NOAA's readjustments of the three undercounts earlier this year), the period from January 1981-December 1990 had 201.8" of snow. Since January 2011, NYC had had 183" of snow. So in order for the next 30-year average to go, CPK needs more than 18.8" of snow between now and December 2020.

PS: In a couple of weeks, I intend to post the updated Excel document on NYC seasonal snow statistics and include the monthly snow totals extracted from Upton.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 27, 2015 12:07 pm

Close to a SECS OR MECS Fantasy map...or is it?

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 35 Gfs_as10

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:01 pm

Get your learn on about the science behind the tornado outbreak from March 25th 2015
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/27/the-science-behind-the-oklahoma-and-arkansas-tornadoes-of-march-25-2015/

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:10 am

My wife got me a t-shirt that says "got weather?" and has a rain cloud above it and a snowflake on one end and a sun on the other, so cool. Yes I will wear it in public lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:03 pm

I am hoping for quick reply to this, As I had mentioned I am writing a paper on response efforts to sandy and mental health implications and need to discuss the red tape surrounding NWS lack of warning due to the way they issued warnings in 2012 (now changed). So if anyone knows the NWS pages that discuss the old criteria, and the new criteria and what a hybrid/substropical storm is as references it would be awesome if you could PM me the links or post them. I need these pages preferably by tomorrow, Thanks for anyone that can help! : )

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:39 pm

For Doc and anyone else old enough to remember, Zoo, Al, Snow Man.

This is the Easter 1970 snow storm, provided by Mugsy's friend Uncle W, where we personally got stuck in the snow going to church that morning. We had over a foot in Rockland County in the LHV where I lived at the time.

It was not even close to the intensity of the April 6, 1982 blizzard, but very impressive for Easter Day none the less. Will have to find some video on the April 6 1982 Blizzard.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A2KLqIQ3KRhVajoAQMUsnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByZWc0dGJtBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDdmlkBHZ0aWQDBGdwb3MDMQ--?p=easter+1970+snow+in+garfield+NJ&vid=91bb5dc11188d477142790e10cc84f63&l=1%3A42&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DVN.608042360315381821%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DDejrCzMF34s&tit=EASTER+1970+SNOW+IN+GARFIELD+NJ+ON+280+PALISADE+AVE+LOOKING+DOWN+TOWARDS+POST+OFFICE&c=0&sigr=11bks9ij4&sigt=12km523m9&sigi=11ri2il43&age=1360370008&fr2=p%3As%2Cv%3Av&hsimp=yhs-003&hspart=mozilla&tt=b

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:58 pm

The New York times article the day after the April 6, 1982 Blizzard. Several things to note about that storm which I and others have mentioned before:

It was almost entirely during the daylight hours yet our region from NNJ to the HV to LI saw from 10-18 inches of snow.

The snow was powdery in texture as temperatures stayed in the low to mid 20's through the storm.

The snow actually stuck around for several days. The low on April 7 was 19 in NYC and single digits in part of the HV.

The Times article mentions the Yankees postponing their opener for 2 days but it ended up being 4.

The next day the highs barely got into the the 30's.

The HV had an additional 3-5 inches of snow 4 days after this storm.

Good memories

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/07/nyregion/rare-april-blizzard-punishes-metropolitan-new-york.html

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:25 pm

Don't need to even open that NY Times link, CP, it's in my memory bank permanently.Had to close up shop around 11 AM, cancellations came in fast and furious.Got home just in time, there was already 4 or 5 inches down by 11:30 AM.It was powdery, in fact, a blizzard!12 inches in Mahwah.I remember that 3-5 extra you guys in the HV got but in Mahwah, it was rain and snow mixed a day or two after the storm.Those were the days of areas North getting the majority of the snow.Frankly, I don't think that will ever happen again.Maybe an April wet snow 3 or 4 inch event, but nothing like that!

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:28 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For Doc and anyone else old enough to remember, Zoo, Al, Snow Man.

This is the Easter 1970 snow storm, provided by Mugsy's friend Uncle W, where we personally got stuck in the snow going to church that morning. We had over a foot in Rockland County in the LHV where I lived at the time.

It was not even close to the intensity of the April 6, 1982 blizzard, but very impressive for Easter Day none the less. Will have to find some video on the April 6 1982 Blizzard.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A2KLqIQ3KRhVajoAQMUsnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByZWc0dGJtBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDdmlkBHZ0aWQDBGdwb3MDMQ--?p=easter+1970+snow+in+garfield+NJ&vid=91bb5dc11188d477142790e10cc84f63&l=1%3A42&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DVN.608042360315381821%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DDejrCzMF34s&tit=EASTER+1970+SNOW+IN+GARFIELD+NJ+ON+280+PALISADE+AVE+LOOKING+DOWN+TOWARDS+POST+OFFICE&c=0&sigr=11bks9ij4&sigt=12km523m9&sigi=11ri2il43&age=1360370008&fr2=p%3As%2Cv%3Av&hsimp=yhs-003&hspart=mozilla&tt=b

Me and my nutcase buddies drove around in it all day in Bergen County,LOL.Must have been 9 or 10 inches in Fort Lee. Snowed hard all day.Yep, this was the "king" of late season snowstorms till the April '82 event.45 years ago fer crying out loud and I was already driving 2 years!

by **snow247** Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:57 pm

Saw a possible brush fire in the mountains by the bear mountain bridge like 25 minutes ago. Didn't think the ground was that dry.

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I am hoping for quick reply to this, As I had mentioned I am writing a paper on response efforts to sandy and mental health implications and need to discuss the red tape surrounding NWS lack of warning due to the way they issued warnings in 2012 (now changed). So if anyone knows the NWS pages that discuss the old criteria, and the new criteria and what a hybrid/substropical storm is as references it would be awesome if you could PM me the links or post them. I need these pages preferably by tomorrow, Thanks for anyone that can help! : )

NVM I found what I needed to find, but I guess no one had the time its ok I understand.

by **Quietace** Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I am hoping for quick reply to this, As I had mentioned I am writing a paper on response efforts to sandy and mental health implications and need to discuss the red tape surrounding NWS lack of warning due to the way they issued warnings in 2012 (now changed). So if anyone knows the NWS pages that discuss the old criteria, and the new criteria and what a hybrid/substropical storm is as references it would be awesome if you could PM me the links or post them. I need these pages preferably by tomorrow, Thanks for anyone that can help! : )

NVM I found what I needed to find, but I guess no one had the time its ok I understand.

I didnt see your post or i would have helped you out..
PS would also like to give it a read when its all finished if you don't mind as the topic is relatable...

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:17 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I am hoping for quick reply to this, As I had mentioned I am writing a paper on response efforts to sandy and mental health implications and need to discuss the red tape surrounding NWS lack of warning due to the way they issued warnings in 2012 (now changed). So if anyone knows the NWS pages that discuss the old criteria, and the new criteria and what a hybrid/substropical storm is as references it would be awesome if you could PM me the links or post them. I need these pages preferably by tomorrow, Thanks for anyone that can help! : )

NVM I found what I needed to find, but I guess no one had the time its ok I understand.
I didnt see your post or i would have helped you out..
PS would also like to give it a read when its all finished if you don't mind as the topic is relatable...

No problem just as long u do not distribute it. I will not have the actual final, final done until may 13th, the part but wednesday is a full draft with room for more work if necessary. I know it needs more so I will keep u in mind when I finish it and anyone else on here that would like to readi t, being its social work school its more about PTSD than weather but the NWS def had a lot to do with preparredness and Bloombergs lack thereof warning until the night before, dont get me started I just finished writing about it past few hrs lol.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:51 pm

There has not been a 70 degree day in NYC since October 29th. That's a 152 day stretch.

You can forget how long we go without warm weather but this year it feels like a long time. Yet I'm still hoping there's a chance it snows this weekend. But that's just me.

by **Math23x7** Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:57 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There has not been a 70 degree day in NYC since October 29th. That's a 152 day stretch.

You can forget how long we go without warm weather but this year it feels like a long time. Yet I'm still hoping there's a chance it snows this weekend. But that's just me.

I remember back in 2002-03 the period from October 8th to April 14th did not have a single 70 degree day, which is 189 consecutive days.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:03 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There has not been a 70 degree day in NYC since October 29th. That's a 152 day stretch.

You can forget how long we go without warm weather but this year it feels like a long time. Yet I'm still hoping there's a chance it snows this weekend. But that's just me.

I remember back in 2002-03 the period from October 8th to April 14th did not have a single 70 degree day, which is 189 consecutive days.

Do you know what the record is? That's a pretty long stretch.

by **snow247** Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:15 pm

Pretty sure I haven't worn shorts outside since September.

I still want snow.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:29 pm

snow247 wrote:Pretty sure I haven't worn shorts outside since September.

I still want snow.

You my friend are a true die hard.

Snow Man would be proud of you, wherever he is.

by **snow247** Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:36 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
snow247 wrote:Pretty sure I haven't worn shorts outside since September.

I still want snow.

You my friend are a true die hard.

Snow Man would be proud of you, wherever he is.

Haha, I am, my family says that they are going to get me a fake snow machine.

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:18 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There has not been a 70 degree day in NYC since October 29th. That's a 152 day stretch.

You can forget how long we go without warm weather but this year it feels like a long time. Yet I'm still hoping there's a chance it snows this weekend. But that's just me.

CP, according to News 12 we might see some wet snow tomorrow night up in our Valley.Keep the ruler handy, I'm at Mom's tomorrow and Weds night.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:15 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There has not been a 70 degree day in NYC since October 29th. That's a 152 day stretch.

You can forget how long we go without warm weather but this year it feels like a long time. Yet I'm still hoping there's a chance it snows this weekend. But that's just me.

CP, according to News 12 we might see some wet snow tomorrow night up in our Valley.Keep the ruler handy, I'm at Mom's tomorrow and Weds night.

Ruler at the ready Doc.

Let's pass last years total, only 0.5 inches needed for that, and let's pass Syos, 1.1 inch needed for that.

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:24 pm

Go get 'em, Kid. I'll check back Thursday AM to see how it all plays out!

Have my Mahwah snow records since '88-'89 packed away somewhere, but off the top of my head I think it was over 60 inches 3 times in all that 25 year stretch.Last 3 HV seasons incredible , even with bizarre twilight zone events happening in the snowstorms this year.I have had a blast enjoying it with everybody on the board.

by **amugs** Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:32 pm

I smell 1.15" for the win tomorrow night and yes I think you guys see about 1-2" as per latest model guidance! And CP wins by a nose - just like Pinocchio!!!!

We have 3 straight months of double digit snow fall amounts in KYNC - this is incredible as well as recording back to back well below normal temperature departures.

Oh and I am going to post in the education section that SROC set up the paper from a German scientist more meteorologist who published a paper about how he sees the solar cycles slowing down and in tern this will have a direct impact on our weather - for the good for us who like winter!!

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