Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:24 pm

That's a great look Mugs

by **snow247** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:25 pm

I'm actually nervous to see the 00z Euro and GFS.

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:He is looking really good.

You can kind of make out where the LLC would be located, approx N to NW quadrant of that main area of convection in the first half of the loop. It def looks like the convection is centering and stacking up. Sure sign of organization. Should be a hurricane by the morning the latest.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:27 pm

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 19 11L_gefs_latest

More pasta to add to the fire!!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:28 pm

I bet Joaquin is a hurricane by the 11pm update

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:29 pm

Looks like a track to our south is more likely atm.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:32 pm

This loop kinda shows Ida fading away. Storms are moving in opposite directions

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 19 4_carb_rainbow_loop

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 19 4_carb_rainbow_loop

by **HectorO** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:32 pm

amugs wrote:

More pasta to add to the fire!!

Have a feeling NC will get the brunt of this storm. Time for bed, soon. When you sleep more time passes and more progress has been made lol.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:32 pm

I see a eye in that one image forming, yes Frank I think cat 1 at 11pm. skins even if it makes landfall south it will still move north and impacts still great.

The SREF map posted, what is that rainfall or something else?

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:34 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:This loop kinda shows Ida fading away. Storms are moving in opposite directions

didnt show up. I never believed remnants ida would effect this storm.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:34 pm

The map I posted from Cowan - looks to be a Delmarva landfall.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I see a eye in that one image forming, yes Frank I think cat 1 at 11pm. skins even if it makes landfall south it will still move north and impacts still great.

The SREF map posted, what is that rainfall or something else?

Guys this Phoenix is going to be huge - like the state of Fla by the time it rolls up here - it could hit Ocean City MD and the jersey shore would have big time issue - don't be fooled by that at all. Not being an alarmist here.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:This loop kinda shows Ida fading away. Storms are moving in opposite directions

didnt show up. I never believed remnants ida would effect this storm.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_carb_rainbow_loop.php

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:37 pm

sweet image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1.gif

by **amugs** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:This loop kinda shows Ida fading away. Storms are moving in opposite directions

didnt show up. I never believed remnants ida would effect this storm.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_carb_rainbow_loop.php

Dracula website Laughing

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:38 pm

Frank look at that walkway for Joaquin, i am actually a bit nervous on the 00z too, could be scary runs.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:39 pm

by **HectorO** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I see a eye in that one image forming, yes Frank I think cat 1 at 11pm. skins even if it makes landfall south it will still move north and impacts still great.

The SREF map posted, what is that rainfall or something else?

That will be depending how far inland it goes when it makes landfall before trending north. As far as rain, yes it still will impact many areas and bring flooding.

by **billg315** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:46 pm

Fading away Ida means no more Ida-Joaquin trying to snuggle with each other and no more Fujiwara Effect, right Frank?

by **amugs** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:47 pm

Fujiwara Effect - is a goner IMHO!!

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:47 pm

And it could still make landfall further north of NC, lets see what models do today and tomorrow. We have started to see ec landfall on more models than not the euro kinda a outlier today.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:55 pm

billg315 wrote:Fading away Ida means no more Ida-Joaquin trying to snuggle with each other and no more Fujiwara Effect, right Frank?

Correct. 00z runs tonight will probably reflect that

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:59 pm

Not sure old Ida is fading away. Wouldn't be surprised to see it renamed by this time tomorrow. Kate I believe.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:59 pm

Like mugs said effects will be far reaching by time gets up carolinas and north, nyc and even ct could have it bad. But does all depend on how much weakening happens and where it is at at landfall, a cat 3 probably be a cat 1 (bad enough) up this way.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:Not sure old Ida is fading away. Wouldn't be surprised to see it renamed by this time tomorrow. Kate I believe.

I did not mean fade away as in dissipate. I meant she's moving away from Joankin so there won't be much of a Fujiwara Effect

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:07 pm

All the Sandy talk made me look back at the video I made

https://youtu.be/CKrBRWjaJ0E

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:25 pm

11pm any time now, i bet NHC goes early, I am also guessing cone shifts west to show more of a threat to US.

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