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Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

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Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 38 Empty Re: Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:09 am

Goes to show how critical placement of where the models initialize Joaquin and the subsequent hours of where he tracks. The trough captured him later this run instead of earlier, and the block allowed hiM to stay close enough to the coast to be captured.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:10 am

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 38 Post-25-0-97210800-1443672501

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:10 am

Surely Frank unbelievable. I get squashed by winds im right on the N of eye, even I don't want that much.
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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:11 am

What if the GFS was hinting at OTS at the start of the run is that possible?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:12 am

@pdubz wrote:What if the GFS was hinting at OTS at the start of the run is that possible?

Definitely. This could have also been a slight trend toward the EURO. Very interesting models runs tomorrow.

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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:13 am

SO IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR NYC, THEN MOVES EAST OVER LI, THEN ANOTHER LANDFALL IN SNE....UNBELIEVABLE
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:13 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@pdubz wrote:What if the GFS was hinting at OTS at the start of the run is that possible?

Definitely. This could have also been a slight trend toward the EURO. Very interesting models runs tomorrow.

Joe Bastardi agrees

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS Scary Sandy scenario may simply be model starting its adjustment to ECMWF escape idea... no need to panic.. yet

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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:14 am

if EURO shows hit also with new model data that changes everything
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:15 am

Ahhhh yes didnt think about that, a east trend possible...or not...notice his "yet". Fwef coming runs go be nail biting
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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:15 am

how i feel right now
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:16 am

@pdubz wrote:if EURO shows hit also with new model data that changes everything

Maybe. We have to temper expectations since this is a late Sunday event. No one should be panicking yet. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:16 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@pdubz wrote:if EURO shows hit also with new model data that changes everything

Maybe. We have to temper expectations since this is a late Sunday event. No one should be panicking yet. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

agreed these models have been toying with us.. not a good thing
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:17 am

@pdubz wrote:how i feel right now

LMAO!!! favorite show thats such a great break
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:18 am

Truthfully, even tomorrow's model runs are early. But it's all about finding consistency and we haven't found it yet

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Post by Joe Snow Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:18 am

The Euro Running soon?

What if if sides with the GFS?

The waiting games begin
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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:19 am

EURO is late night 1:45 i think
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:20 am

Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 38 Post-86-0-26221000-1443673093

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:20 am

Anyone gonna stay up? I think I will get up for a quick look, dont forget CMC, even though it not that gr8. We are back to square one with consistency.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:21 am

@Joe Snow wrote:The Euro Running soon?

What if if sides with the GFS?

The waiting games begin

Euro doesn't run until 2-230. No way I'll be awake.

GGEM might be out soon

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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:21 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 38 Post-86-0-26221000-1443673093

wind field small or no
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:22 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY) - Page 38 Post-86-0-26221000-1443673093

Those seem low for such a big storm especially for the north side which is supposed b the worst. so you got wxbell again i see.
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Post by pdubz Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:22 am

i am comparing to sandy though which was different
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:23 am

If there is anything Frank has taught me those wind maps mean crap this far out, i am surprised he even posted them. LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:24 am

Bastardi believes GFS was trending to EURO. Sounds like he's leaning OTS

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:24 am

Verbatim the western side and NJ coast get the worst winds but that doesnt matter, this track is what needs to be watched now.
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