Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

I honestly have chills all over my body. This is unreal. All over Twitter, all METS were screaming GFS caved to Euro and goes OTS, and then at hr 75...............

Frank_Wx wrote:Notice the timing. It's still 100 hours out. But if this were less than 50 hours out, I would be issuing evacuations for MANY people

I understand that but its also not in lala land....Once this hits media if they do, which they shouldnt until at least we see more like this, people are going to run wild

Goes to show how critical placement of where the models initialize Joaquin and the subsequent hours of where he tracks. The trough captured him later this run instead of earlier, and the block allowed hiM to stay close enough to the coast to be captured.

Surely Frank unbelievable. I get squashed by winds im right on the N of eye, even I don't want that much.

What if the GFS was hinting at OTS at the start of the run is that possible?

pdubz wrote:What if the GFS was hinting at OTS at the start of the run is that possible?

Definitely. This could have also been a slight trend toward the EURO. Very interesting models runs tomorrow.

SO IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR NYC, THEN MOVES EAST OVER LI, THEN ANOTHER LANDFALL IN SNE....UNBELIEVABLE

Frank_Wx wrote:

pdubz wrote:What if the GFS was hinting at OTS at the start of the run is that possible?

Definitely. This could have also been a slight trend toward the EURO. Very interesting models runs tomorrow.

Joe Bastardi agrees

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS Scary Sandy scenario may simply be model starting its adjustment to ECMWF escape idea... no need to panic.. yet

if EURO shows hit also with new model data that changes everything

Ahhhh yes didnt think about that, a east trend possible...or not...notice his "yet". Fwef coming runs go be nail biting

how i feel right now

pdubz wrote:if EURO shows hit also with new model data that changes everything

Maybe. We have to temper expectations since this is a late Sunday event. No one should be panicking yet. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Frank_Wx wrote:

pdubz wrote:if EURO shows hit also with new model data that changes everything

Maybe. We have to temper expectations since this is a late Sunday event. No one should be panicking yet. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

agreed these models have been toying with us.. not a good thing

pdubz wrote:how i feel right now

LMAO!!! favorite show thats such a great break

Truthfully, even tomorrow's model runs are early. But it's all about finding consistency and we haven't found it yet

The Euro Running soon?

What if if sides with the GFS?

The waiting games begin

EURO is late night 1:45 i think

Anyone gonna stay up? I think I will get up for a quick look, dont forget CMC, even though it not that gr8. We are back to square one with consistency.

Joe Snow wrote:The Euro Running soon?

What if if sides with the GFS?

The waiting games begin

Euro doesn't run until 2-230. No way I'll be awake.

GGEM might be out soon

Frank_Wx wrote:

wind field small or no

Frank_Wx wrote:

Those seem low for such a big storm especially for the north side which is supposed b the worst. so you got wxbell again i see.

i am comparing to sandy though which was different

If there is anything Frank has taught me those wind maps mean crap this far out, i am surprised he even posted them. LOL

Bastardi believes GFS was trending to EURO. Sounds like he's leaning OTS

Verbatim the western side and NJ coast get the worst winds but that doesnt matter, this track is what needs to be watched now.