Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[skinsfan1177]

Does any of this have any effect on a pattern locking in or not more of a transient setup

Don't know yet but at worst I would say transient. Guys in other forums saying a ssw is happening by thebeater part of next week on rhe models and a pretty strong one at that. Tome will tell Skins. Let's hope for the best my man.

Fingers crossed Positive Vibes

[amugs]

I'll take 5 his from the 18z GEFS in a heartbeat.mobile at mu son hockey game at an outdoor rink woop woop

[Frank_Wx]

Uhhhh, Merry Chr-ICE-stmas anyone???? Lmao



Just a bit on the extreme side of things ahaha

Nice, but it's so far out.

I could be wrong about this but isn't there a 2 to 3 month lag time for our area with el-nino weakening with regards to seeing any effect in the overall pattern. if correct this weakening of el-nino would not have an impact on our area until mid feb. I thought that the central based el-nino  rather than  east based and convection around the dateline is whats beneficial for us.

More like 3-6 weeks

Long day at work. I'll look at some models tonight. Seems to be some optimism in this thread tonight....

Franky needs consistency but each run sin e 6z trending better so far so pour yourself a cold one or warm one sit back and roll the model runs.

If that block is real, look out.

I'll take 5 his from the 18z GEFS in a heartbeat.mobile at mu son hockey game at an outdoor rink woop woop

East based block near Scandinavia. That would help perturb the Strat too

[Frank_Wx]

The GEFS look great by Christmas time while the EPS still look poor. As of now, I believe the GEFS are top quick in trying to show a -EPO and -NAO develop at the same time. I've been saying this is a step down process. Most likely, NAO will go negative first before EPO given nature of North Pacific trough. I'm not seeing a pattern change just yet. Promising signals with the Stratosphere tonight though. Hopefully that continues.

[amugs]

Just got hime from my sons game, dam it is cold 30* out therw but this warmed me up like my homemade bauleys sin e i am awake as collwge kid on nodos!!Look at the how the GEFS flipped today for the greater of the good for us weenies!!
12z


18z

[sroc4]

GFS coming in totally different again with timing/intensity with next weeks GLC system.  This, as well as the system on its heals coming out of the Rockies, will most likely be a fairley potent system that could affect the pattern, in a transient way, after it moves NE into Canada .  We will most likely have to wait until we get much closer to this event to interpret whats going to happen after.  Operational models will cont to flip flop on the LR until they get a better handle on this sytems details.  What does seem to be fairley consistent, but still evolving, is some higher heights to the north in the NAO regions and EPO regions.  

GFS Op Last nights 00z, 6z, then 12z.  Marked differences with timing and strength at 500mb leads to these differences at the surface.  All 3 images represent 00z on Dec15th.

[algae888]

Scott after the system passes we get cold for half a day and then Heights rise again and we should be into the fifties from the 17th thru the 19th. eps agrees. Last week's GFS showed cold air at this time frame for us with a possible storm the one on mug's birthday. obviously this is not happening and probably not anytime soon after. I think the only thing that's going to break this pattern is an sswe which the models are hinting at. But if this does happen we will not feel its effects until sometime in January. Can we time cold air and a short wave interacting at the same time sure we can but its hard to be confident about that at the moment

[sroc4]

Scott after the system passes we get cold for half a day and then Heights rise again and we should be into the fifties from the 17th thru the 19th. eps agrees. Last week's GFS showed  cold air at this time frame for us with a possible storm the one on mug's birthday.  obviously this is not happening and probably not anytime soon after. I think the only thing that's going to break this pattern is an sswe which the models are hinting at. But if this does happen we will not feel its effects until sometime in January. Can we time cold air and a short wave interacting at the same time sure we can but its hard to be confident about that at the moment

As I pointed out Al this is not a pattern changer.   That being said models are continuing to flip and flop with this first system.   There will be another GLC in its wake that yes it appears we will be in the warm sector again between the 16th-18th until it forces the cold front through. However; after the second system, which also looks fairly postent in MSLP ,notice how there is now a pretty potent HP forming in western and central Canada.  
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This has not shown up yet at all this season because of the progressive Pacific jet.  But as I pointed out in my prev post the LR is hinting at the possibility of some higher heights in the EPO regions and NAO regions.  The 12z GFS verbatim has a ridge into Western Canada which directly results in the HP in the above image.  Here is the GFS 500mb for the same time as the surface map above.  
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Obviously in this set up the timing must be perfect.  The trough you see in the SW at 500mb will cont to kick out pieces of energy.  If there is a strong enough HP to the N it could block it enough so it follows a more southerly track and could make it somehwre in the vacinity of the coast to at least give us a peak.  

EPS has been hinting at something coming out of the SW for awhile now.  

[img][/img]

There is still a huge spread however on ensembles which is prob due to the same reason the operationals cvont to flip.  Exactly what happens with GLC one around the 14th-15th then GLC two around the 16th-18th is still in question so the time frame shortly after is still up in the air.  Even if we dont get a snow storm I still think the coldest air so far is coming after that time frame.  

Again Al this is all LR stuff so alot can and will prob change, hopefully for the beter, but the chances for snow for someone on or near the coast between the 18th-25th is not zero.

[amugs]

Look at the CMC ENS here for the 20th the storm - sorry coast but inland does great.

[algae888]

scott maybe you're right. I do not have access to better maps but the euro now brings in the cold day 9 and 10. -10 850's haven't seen that for a while. now if we can get some moisture with it!

[NjWeatherGuy]

How I wish
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151209+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[amugs]

[amugs]

[amugs]

What does one do if this verifies??


THIS

[jmanley32]

Wow tgat control is awesome but how often does the control verify?

[Frank_Wx]

Some interesting developments in the 10 day range on todays model runs. Both the EURO and GFS are trying to pop positive heights in the circled area. If a ridge truly does develop there it would push the eastern ridge south and east, as well as the baroclinic zone. This could allow cold air to reach the coast near Christmas. This only happens if the magnitude of this ridge, or -EPO, strengthens and tries to extend poleward. We'll see how this looks by the weekend. Tonight, this feature left me going "hmmmm"

[amugs]

GEFS

18z



12z

[Snow88]

GFS pops a miller b that goes towards the benchmark. Pretty good snows for SNE. GGEM shreds the storm and it's cold.

[NjWeatherGuy]

6z GFS looks like last night.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=219&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_219_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151210+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[sroc4]

Quick update:  Ensembles cont to hint at a storm signal or at least the potential for the coldest air of the season to arrive between Dec 18th-21st and 22nd-25th although there is still a long way to go.  

This far out I much prefer to look at the trends of 51model and the avg of what all 51 are saying, (which is what the ensemble mean is aka EPS aka European ensemble mean or the GEFS which is the GFS ensemble), than the operational which is only one run twice a day for the euro or 4  times a day for the GFS, although the trends of the operational models are important too.  And of course the Canadian is also looked at and evaluated along with the others for the big picture.  

EPS cont to hint at a trough moving into the E during this time frame.  We need to see the spread in the negatives(blue colors) up into NW Canada and Eastern Alaska trend more concentrated N and S of that region.  This will allow the Positives  to hopefully build into this region.
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You can see that the EPS is trying at least to get to a neutral EPO in that time frame.  Hopefully it cont to trend towards negative

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Vs the Euro OP: decent ridging into western Canada and more trough in the east on last nights run, but unfort is still changing quite drastically from run to run at 500mb.  At least the trend cont to be more trough in the east:  
Last nights 00z
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Yesterdays 12z
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GEFS are also hinting at some energy cutting underneath the ridging in Canada placing a trough into the east, but as you can see here they already have the positive heights into our EPO region.  This is vital.  This leads to a HP system to develop over central Canada that would provide a source for cold air to begin to try and drain into the central and eastern CONUS as I indicated in my write up yesterday.  

" />

GEFS have the EPO trending towards slight negative but have a pretty wide spread at the moment:
" />


Again we have a long way to go here. This is by no means an ideal set up, but this is a set up that can produce snow in the east if timing is right. Things will have to be pretty perfectly timed to have it workout so my confidence is still low for a snow storm at this time. My confidence is mod; however, that we see temps that are below normal.

[Snow88]

6z GFS is great for the interior and SNE for next week's storm and in the long range. Storm after Storm after Storm. Very active pattern.

[jmanley32]

Snow let's hope the cold can drop a bit further south doesn't have that far to go verbatum.

[HectorO]

It's my birthday! I think I might rock short sleeve shirt today LOL. Maybe tan this weekend.

[sroc4]

It's my birthday! I think I might rock short sleeve shirt today LOL. Maybe tan this weekend.

Fabulous long range analysis Hector..lol..and Happy Birthday!

[amugs]

It's my birthday! I think I might rock short sleeve shirt today LOL. Maybe tan this weekend.

Happy Birthday!! Bust out the baby oil!!

[algae888]

It's my birthday! I think I might rock short sleeve shirt today LOL. Maybe tan this weekend.

Happy birthday hector! Enjoy the warm weather. I don't mind it warm as long as the sun's out.

[NjWeatherGuy]

12z gfs shows never ending glcs, pattern doesnt change... SE ridge keeps pumping.

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