Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[rb924119]

Word around the weather world tonight is about how awful the latest EURO weeklies look. Here's some images 1 week apart from eachother. Take note of time stamps.







And to be honest, I'm not really thrilled about the look they give between Christmas and New Years. Luckily that's still pretty far out for changes to still happen.

Hey Frank, all hope may not be lost. When taken at face value, no; it looks like even the end of December is going to H@ll in a hand basket. BUT, take notice of the trends of the 500 hPa positive anomalies. They started in the northern Midwest; this latest run the core is now centered right near 60N. The trend is moving the right direction; toward the pole. Even in the GooFuS, this trend is evident. Why am I bringing this up? Here's why:



Look at the winds and fluxes toward mid-month......winds start dropping and fluxes start increasing, and you can also see the rises in heights. Also notice the time period; both on your graphics and mine, the time period is mid-month. Remember when all that snow cover started to rapidly stack up in the NH, specifically Siberia? Mid-month of October through the present. I think we might be seeing the models attempting to pick up on these vertical fluxes in the long range. You can also see the trends in the teleconnections, for the most part, heading in the right directions: NAO/AO/EPO trending toward negative values. The PNA is the only uncooperative one, but I think that could end up reversing if we start to see this consistently showing up.

[amugs]

Rb will be the new winter warlock if this verifies.

[sroc4]

I agree. Ive been preaching fo awhile now that the LR model projections almost always evolve as time goes by. One of the time frames I was looking at regarding this evolution is today Dec 1st.  Here is what the EPS was showing for 00z today 360hrs ago.  If taken at face value this doesn't look half bad.  

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But this is what the 500mb pattern actually looks like as of this mornings run hr 0 for 00z Dec1st.  HUGE differences.  

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With the SOI still in crash mode, latest daily value -22.80, there is def something going to happen in the atmosphere that will take the models a little time to catch onto.  It may trend even worse given the strength of some of the main drivers here, but the LR is the LR and more often than not what you see in the LR is not exactly what you get, for better or worse.

[Frank_Wx]

Word around the weather world tonight is about how awful the latest EURO weeklies look. Here's some images 1 week apart from eachother. Take note of time stamps.







And to be honest, I'm not really thrilled about the look they give between Christmas and New Years. Luckily that's still pretty far out for changes to still happen.

Hey Frank, all hope may not be lost. When taken at face value, no; it looks like even the end of December is going to H@ll in a hand basket. BUT, take notice of the trends of the 500 hPa positive anomalies. They started in the northern Midwest; this latest run the core is now centered right near 60N. The trend is moving the right direction; toward the pole. Even in the GooFuS, this trend is evident. Why am I bringing this up? Here's why:



Look at the winds and fluxes toward mid-month......winds start dropping and fluxes start increasing, and you can also see the rises in heights. Also notice the time period; both on your graphics and mine, the time period is mid-month. Remember when all that snow cover started to rapidly stack up in the NH, specifically Siberia? Mid-month of October through the present. I think we might be seeing the models attempting to pick up on these vertical fluxes in the long range. You can also see the trends in the teleconnections, for the most part, heading in the right directions: NAO/AO/EPO trending toward negative values. The PNA is the only uncooperative one, but I think that could end up reversing if we start to see this consistently showing up.

There's a short term spike in EPV at 10hPa, but the magnitude is fairly weak. We want to see those arrows point poleward and show greater impact. Geopotential heights in the Stratosphere suggest we're in a wave 1 event but the warmth I'm seeing at 10-30mb doesn't seem impressive enough to displace the Strato PV at this time. 

There's positive signs I'm seeing in the LR though. I'm still in favor of a pattern change taking place late this month, around New Year, or early January.

[amugs]

Well looky here peps - thngs are a changing as per the changes from tehse dates - kudos to SROC for always harping on this point an dpointing it at!!

CANSIPS FOR JAN ON NOV 1



CANSIPS FOR JAN ON DEC 1



WHAT DO YOU SAY NOW MR HEAT MISER!!!

2M TEMPS - BOOOOOMM!!



OH ANN LETS GO PRECIP - CP, DOC, SNOW247 - BETTER THAN LAST RUNS!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Mugs - As per your January maps, normal to slightly below average January temps, and above average January precip, should equal above average snowfall. We shall see, but I'm not holding my breath.

[amugs]

Mugs - As per your January maps, normal to slightly below average January temps, and above average January precip, should equal above average snowfall. We shall see, but I'm not holding my breath.

Yes we shall but as Sroc pointed out that the models are catching up to what is happening in our atmosphere and almost always lag -with taht said it is bette rtrending this way than the other and as the saying goes - the Trend is our Friend!!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Is that a reliable model mugs??? Let's see if the other LR models start to show it too.

[rb924119]

Word around the weather world tonight is about how awful the latest EURO weeklies look. Here's some images 1 week apart from eachother. Take note of time stamps.

And to be honest, I'm not really thrilled about the look they give between Christmas and New Years. Luckily that's still pretty far out for changes to still happen.

Hey Frank, all hope may not be lost. When taken at face value, no; it looks like even the end of December is going to H@ll in a hand basket. BUT, take notice of the trends of the 500 hPa positive anomalies. They started in the northern Midwest; this latest run the core is now centered right near 60N. The trend is moving the right direction; toward the pole. Even in the GooFuS, this trend is evident. Why am I bringing this up? Here's why:

Look at the winds and fluxes toward mid-month......winds start dropping and fluxes start increasing, and you can also see the rises in heights. Also notice the time period; both on your graphics and mine, the time period is mid-month. Remember when all that snow cover started to rapidly stack up in the NH, specifically Siberia? Mid-month of October through the present. I think we might be seeing the models attempting to pick up on these vertical fluxes in the long range. You can also see the trends in the teleconnections, for the most part, heading in the right directions: NAO/AO/EPO trending toward negative values. The PNA is the only uncooperative one, but I think that could end up reversing if we start to see this consistently showing up.

There's a short term spike in EPV at 10hPa, but the magnitude is fairly weak. We want to see those arrows point poleward and show greater impact. Geopotential heights in the Stratosphere suggest we're in a wave 1 event but the warmth I'm seeing at 10-30mb doesn't seem impressive enough to displace the Strato PV at this time. 

There's positive signs I'm seeing in the LR though. I'm still in favor of a pattern change taking place late this month, around New Year, or early January.

Totally agree. BUT my point is that we are seeing signs of something that MIGHT be coming. I'm not saying that future runs don't start trending and go back to what we have been seeing, but I think it's certainly something to watch over the next week or so to see how the trends go. That's all I'm saying. But with regard to the longggggg range, I agree.....again haha

[Frank_Wx]

Well looky here peps - thngs are a changing as per the changes from tehse dates - kudos to SROC for always harping on this point an dpointing it at!!

CANSIPS FOR JAN ON NOV 1



CANSIPS FOR JAN ON DEC 1



WHAT DO YOU SAY NOW MR HEAT MISER!!!

2M TEMPS - BOOOOOMM!!



OH ANN LETS GO PRECIP - CP, DOC, SNOW247 - BETTER THAN LAST RUNS!

I am not confident in this model - have not even heard of it to be honest - but I like the time frame it's signaling for a pattern change to occur. Within the next 7-14 days, we have to see exactly where the tropical forcing sets up. Will it be enough to displace the AK vortex and allow for an anomalous Aleutian trough to develop? If so, the EPO has a good chance of going negative and this could be the Tropospheric change we need to feedback into the Stratosphere and eventually displace / split the PV.

[amugs]

12Z GFS showing big storms in the LR - all rain but nonetheless we are seeing a good STJ pumping - Still holding onto the idea cold (actually normal air) coming down mid month.
@ Frank, CanSIPS is the CMC from the Canadian - Levi Cowan, DT, WeatherBell all use this model.
Here is a link on it - https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/howto_seasonal_coupled_e.html
Seems to be the best chance of displacing or splitting vortex is going to come from the trop forcing out near the dateline - pretty crazy. Where is Thor when you need him?

[Frank_Wx]

Watching threat for coastal system Tues-Wed next week. GFS shows 991mb bringing heavy rain to Jersey

[NjWeatherGuy]

Canadian has trended offshore with this but still watching, GFS has been consistent, wanting to see what 0z shows, closed low, potential to lay down a lot of precip but unfortunately cut off from cold air.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Uh, guys, I think the Canadian just went to a snowstorm on the 8th if im seeing this right, hr 132.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

[Frank_Wx]

Uh, guys, I think the Canadian just went to a snowstorm on the 8th if im seeing this right, hr 132.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

No, that's rain. 540 line is in the Great Lakes.

[algae888]

heading in the right direction. some hope for January.

[Snow88]

The SOI is free falling

Yesterday : -22.80

Today : - 33.68

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/

[algae888]

Today's olr map shows a lot of convection in the Indian Ocean and also around the Date Line however most of that is in the southern hemisphere which is unfavorable for our area. Steve D feels that the conviction at the Date Line will move northward and help set up a more favorable pattern for us by displacing the Alaskan vortex and placing it south of the Aleutians. This process is probably going to be slow and we probably have to wait till at least sometime next week before we should see hints of the pattern change and maybe longer.

[Guest]

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason. I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST. I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

[amugs]

Today's olr map shows a lot of convection in the Indian Ocean and also around the Date Line however most of that is in the southern hemisphere which is unfavorable for our area. Steve D feels that the conviction at the Date Line will move northward and help set up a more favorable pattern for us by displacing the Alaskan vortex and placing it south of the Aleutians. This process is probably going to be slow and we probably have to wait till at least sometime next week before we should see hints of the pattern change and maybe longer.

This displacement of this PV as per the Euro seasonal and CanSIPS maps are to take place late Dec and by mid Jan - for a back loaded winter this is what occurs. The convection at the dateline is a good sign and expectations for a bang bang Dec by many were not on the board for this winter. The same routine happened last year and we thought we never were going to get out of this "boot leg" type pattern and look what happened. The pattern needs time to evolve and it may take baby steps but eventually we will get there - back loaded means about 45 days away and THAT is a boat load of time for changes to occur. My friend and ex student who is a Lydon State Alum (Alex ?). pro met who worked for NOAA in Alaska for 8 years and now is working for meteostar in Upstate NY said to me the other day that he expects things to change over to more winter like condition by the first week of Jan (4-10th) time frame. As he said "Winter atmospheric conditions take longer to come together sometimes but as we enter deeper into winter all the factors do come together". I take his word.

[amugs]

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason.  I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST.  I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

About time the trend has reversed course - wah wah wah!! HAHAHAHA!!

[sroc4]

Besides some of the people on this forum beginning to get nervous about a non-winter because of how warm it has been and the forecast going forward, I am nervous about winter for a different reason.  I am a BIG believer in patterns, and so far the last 3 rain storms for my area including this one have been a total BUST.  I have received less than half of the forecasted rainfall from each one, while areas N/W have exceeded expectations.

This "storm" so far has given me a whopping .17 inches and nothing showing up downstream on the radar heading this way, while the LHV and NNJ make out again

Hopefully this is not a preview of the winter once it gets established next month???

I thought my rain guage was broken. I too had 0.23" measured yest into today. I do think the north and western areas will do better than us this year but I have confidence we still see above normal amts.

[amugs]

This out from the bell boys: J-M
500Map


Temps


Stressing early Jan through late March is the time frame and Feb fun fun fun!!

[amugs]

WxBell saying and showing by the ukie that the PV is getting displaced in the next 2 weeks - I will believe it if it it shows this 5 days and 10 days from now but there is a correlation that Isotherm has dug up saying a Strong Autumn PV usually means a weakened winter PV.



Look at how the black like crashes come late Dec - woop woop!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Canadian ensembles showing a strong signal, some strong near benchmark.

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

[NjWeatherGuy]

Uh, guys, I think the Canadian just went to a snowstorm on the 8th if im seeing this right, hr 132.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

No, that's rain. 540 line is in the Great Lakes.

Isnt the 540 the blue line, looks like it gets pulled into the storm from what I see, still could be too warm at the surface but it looks like thats below freezing aloft on last nights run.

[amugs]

Uh, guys, I think the Canadian just went to a snowstorm on the 8th if im seeing this right, hr 132.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

No, that's rain. 540 line is in the Great Lakes.

Isnt the 540 the blue line, looks like it gets pulled into the storm from what I see, still could be too warm at the surface but it looks like thats below freezing aloft on last nights run.

Tom from teh look sit does start to get pulled from the GL into it but seems to reside in Central PA - funnier things have happened with these beasts but looks to be rain for the coast. Time will tell.

Side not Nick Gregory last night on the 10PM news said there is possibility of a Nor'easter mid week.

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