Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[NjWeatherGuy]

Had my first big fire in my firepit which I hadn't done since last winter. We'll see if this changes our luck even though Im usually not very supersticious.

[rb924119]

For those that are curious, 18z GFS snowfall:

[amugs]

For those that are curious, 18z GFS snowfall:

Take it with a grain of salt a beast like and a banana high well do better. I would sign right now for nnj if this is minimum aftet what we've been through

[NjWeatherGuy]

Not getting sucked in, talk to you guys in 3 days when its modeled to run up the apps. Dont like being in the hit zone this far out...

[Bkdude]

Smart man. See you in an hour

[NjWeatherGuy]

You're probably right. It was a beautiful few runs but he who giveth taketh away. Im worried about the fact this storm was on the models, it disappeared, now its back in the medium range but lots of time left and things need to go perfectly right for this to play out exactly where it is now when the time comes. Which is why I dont like the chances, and I dont play the lottery. Not sold yet...

[amugs]

Absolutely Tom and I hear you if this was Wed runs for sat then we have sum ting to hone in on but nonetheless we have something to track. Positive juju needed to help get this one as is with other storms. Maybe the domino effect if we can get one the others will try to work there up here as well. Remember last winter and 2013-14?? So many last minute storms that so many were poh pooing on most forums and pro mets.

[billg315]

I tend to think certain winters behave a certain way and after awhile they just follow that pattern. In this case that would mean this storm is most likely to either A. go off OTS to our south, or B. to run up the Apps/Ohio Valley. However, there are always outliers so we shall see if this one can break the mold for us.

[jmanley32]

Wow on t g at cmc run 25 inches for me. If it's there in 5 days I'll start to believe it. Lol

[Snowfall]

The strange thing is after a storm like that I figured we will get cold temps for another day but warmth right after do this happen

[Snowfall]

Weather channel gives Brooklyn 13+already all mets on board

[docstox12]

Wow.They are sticking their necks out.Just way too early yet.A lot of things have to come together.

[billg315]

Just checked my local forecast from TWC which shows me getting total 12-20" of snow from Friday into Saturday night. Accuweather also calls for Snow Saturday. This means nothing to me (as their 7 day forecasts jump all over the place and I trust Frank and the guys on here more for these mid to long range events) other than that this means A. They think the threat is real and B. This will be all over the media and water cooler discussions commencing immediately. So everyone get ready to start fielding friends/family questions! Let the fun begin! Should be an interesting week (finally!)

[amugs]

As I love to say to my teams when coaching the poop is about to get real!!
All must temper excitement and we do not need what about my backyard stuff here or bust calls. Their is the POTENTIAL for a EC coast storm at this time. It is still 60 hours away from making landfall

My how this has changed the tude on this and all weather boards.

[billg315]

Agreed mugs on both points. Long way off so need to stay realistic and not get too hung up on specifics (i.e. Exactly how much might fall exactly where); and, there is a palpable difference in the tone on here this morning; 2 days ago it was like a funeral; today it's like the beginning moments of a bachelor party: everyone's excited but not sure exactly how crazy it's going to get and whether it will end well or badly. I like this atmosphere better. Haha!

[sroc4]

I urge everyone to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. We have already seen good model agreement on a potential system, including ensembles, only to have things fall apart as we move closer. This has a ton of potential given the extent of model agreement and the fact that we are in the 5-7day range, but we are far from home still.

You will not hear much from me until at least Tuesday.

[skinsfan1177]

I urge everyone to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic.  We have already seen good model agreement on a potential system, including ensembles, only to have things fall apart as we move closer.  This has a ton of potential given the extent of model agreement and the fact that we are in the 5-7day range, but we are far from home still.    

You will not hear much from me until at least Tuesday.

Agreed sroc because I can see it now if it does not work out ! Also remember I asked the snow Gods to deliver.

[billg315]

I urge everyone to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic.  We have already seen good model agreement on a potential system, including ensembles, only to have things fall apart as we move closer.  This has a ton of potential given the extent of model agreement and the fact that we are in the 5-7day range, but we are far from home still.    

You will not hear much from me until at least Tuesday.

Very True sroc. Everyone needs to remember we are still 6-7 days out and a lot can change. That said . . . I'm thinking back to the November get-together and someone (hint: not me) picked Jan 22 for the first Godzilla. Do you remember who that was?

[sroc4]

I urge everyone to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic.  We have already seen good model agreement on a potential system, including ensembles, only to have things fall apart as we move closer.  This has a ton of potential given the extent of model agreement and the fact that we are in the 5-7day range, but we are far from home still.    

You will not hear much from me until at least Tuesday.

Very True sroc. Everyone needs to remember we are still 6-7 days out and a lot can change. That said . . . I'm thinking back to the November get-together and someone (hint: not me) picked Jan 22 for the first Godzilla. Do you remember who that was?

Im not saying a word until after the fact.

[billg315]

I urge everyone to remain CAUTIOUSLY optimistic.  We have already seen good model agreement on a potential system, including ensembles, only to have things fall apart as we move closer.  This has a ton of potential given the extent of model agreement and the fact that we are in the 5-7day range, but we are far from home still.    

You will not hear much from me until at least Tuesday.

Very True sroc. Everyone needs to remember we are still 6-7 days out and a lot can change. That said . . . I'm thinking back to the November get-together and someone (hint: not me) picked Jan 22 for the first Godzilla. Do you remember who that was?

Im not saying a word until after the fact.  

Haha! Gotcha. I shall say no more for now.

[RJB8525]

Weather channel gives Brooklyn 13+already all mets on board

Ugh they are giving it the kiss of death

They must really like the pattern setup storms have come in blizzard like and only mentioned it 24 hrs in advance

[Guest]

Agreed mugs on both points. Long way off so need to stay realistic and not get too hung up on specifics (i.e. Exactly how much might fall exactly where); and, there is a palpable difference in the tone on here this morning; 2 days ago it was like a funeral; today it's like the beginning moments of a bachelor party: everyone's excited but not sure exactly how crazy it's going to get and whether it will end well or badly. I like this atmosphere better. Haha!

GREAT ANALOGY!!!!!!!!!!!

..............and I do remember some Long Island veterinarian calling Friday's potential Godzilla 2 months ago!!!!!!!

[sroc4]

Agreed mugs on both points. Long way off so need to stay realistic and not get too hung up on specifics (i.e. Exactly how much might fall exactly where); and, there is a palpable difference in the tone on here this morning; 2 days ago it was like a funeral; today it's like the beginning moments of a bachelor party: everyone's excited but not sure exactly how crazy it's going to get and whether it will end well or badly. I like this atmosphere better. Haha!

GREAT ANALOGY!!!!!!!!!!!

..............and I do remember some Long Island veterinarian calling Friday's potential Godzilla 2 months ago!!!!!!!

Settle....SETTLE!!! After the fact please....I am hugely superstitious

[RJB8525]

I'll keep anything that takes away from posting model ranges and etc from the long range thread here

I hope this one pans out even if we can get 4" minimum sign me on the dotted line

would love to finally sit back and look out the window watching the white gold come down

maybe my first ever frustrated snow rant helped (i'll keep telling myself that)

[Math23x7]

Had the EURO run from THE NIGHT BEFORE "Juno" verified, Bellerose, NY (where I am) would have gotten 30-36" of snow.....I got 13" out of it...

[sroc4]

Bill posted over in the weather education thread regarding the CCB potential for next weekends storm.  For those who are still new to the terminology and acronyms CCB stands for Cold air Conveyor Belt.  You may come across this one in here and in other weather forums talking about the possible CCB set up with next weekends potential.  Here is the link to a good explanation to what it actually is.   Bill also provides a link that is equally excellent in its explanation of the CCB.  

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t517-ccb-banding-cold-air-conveyor-belt

[amugs]

Agreed mugs on both points. Long way off so need to stay realistic and not get too hung up on specifics (i.e. Exactly how much might fall exactly where); and, there is a palpable difference in the tone on here this morning; 2 days ago it was like a funeral; today it's like the beginning moments of a bachelor party: everyone's excited but not sure exactly how crazy it's going to get and whether it will end well or badly. I like this atmosphere better. Haha!

Love the analogy woop woop

and looky see what the euro has in the pipeline to follow up out possible beast:

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