Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:15 pm

And the CMC has a huge coastal on the 22nd, temps bit issue coast but that's not important. As frank said the models will waffle, so maybe the GFS losing it this run was a good thing.

by **algae888** Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:15 pm

Math23x7 wrote:In various weather discussions for the next seven days in NYC, the lowest temperatures for next week are in the upper teens and it's being considered "bitter cold." Uhhhhhh, do any of them remember last year, specifically last February. Numerous nights in the single digits and wind chills -15 to -20 degrees Fahrenheit. it got to the point where on February 22nd last year (when it was sunny in the low 40s in the afternoon) I was sweating like crazy.

Mike I think that's the biggest factor in our winter this year the lack of cold air. More specifically the lack of a cold high pressure to our North. Imagine if we had a 1040 millibar high sitting in southern Canada right now. we would be talking about a nice snow storm for tomorrow

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:04 pm

Nope no coastal on Euro...

by **amugs** Fri Jan 15, 2016 3:44 pm

Forget the LR as far as particulars are concerned, just look for storm signal and possible pattern.

Model end idicating a pull back from the 25th to 1st week of Feb but then it shows it reloading. Can't trust anything past two weeks on the weeklies. They have corrected themselves all winter.

If you want to hug a model got to the OTI thread, there are a few waiting for you.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:57 pm

A little annoyed with the weather. I'm taking the weekend off. Will have a Mo Mo ready for Monday.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Jan 15, 2016 5:02 pm

Good for you Frank!! Sometimes taking a break for a day or two is a good thing!! Enjoy and looking forward to your MoMo..but I don't want to rush the weekend Smile

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 15, 2016 5:03 pm

Just got back from my trip to Italy and see things are not good! Was hoping for snow on the ground or in the near future but it doesn't look good talking to some friends they also seem down with this winter oh well !

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 15, 2016 6:25 pm

Onto hurricane season lol its already started too. It's gonna b a dozzy. Think there will b some bad landfall this yr just a hunch.

by Snowfall Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:17 pm

Yeah snow storm I believe anything is possible

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A little annoyed with the weather. I'm taking the weekend off. Will have a Mo Mo ready for Monday.

RIP to the winter season that never came

I hate to be negative but I don't see anything positive..

I think a newly formed hurricane in the Atlantic really speaks for it all lol

by **GreyBeard** Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:41 pm

No Scroll, No Banner, Frank taking the weekend off, these are not good signs. Did the fat lady start singing today? Say it aint so. Is there no hope left? Sad

by Mathgod55 Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:42 pm

You guys sure fold easy. I'm glad you don't have my back.

by **amugs** Sat Jan 16, 2016 9:12 am

Mathgod55 wrote:You guys sure fold easy. I'm glad you don't have my back.

Not folding quite yet but met winter is almost 2/3 of the way over . It has been a brutal stretch so far. Many saw a warm Nov and Dec but not yo the extent we have seen, no nine saw this. We were and are of the belief that a strong trop convection in a basin wide nino with the majority out by the dateline in such past ni nj os would produce a AL low that help block the NPac jet and allow for a -epo and + pna ridge to build a block and thus allow the storm track to be from s and turn n. We also needed help with the ao and NAO on the atlantic side. LR stratospheric modelling kept insisting on a PV split at each level or displacement by next week sometime. It is usally preceeded by a major N NAO which we saw. We always said we needed these parts ti come together but the majority being the Pacific so we can slow down this flow. It is diheartening to see what the Euro monthlies, cansips, Jamstec , all reliable LR models were showing since Aug for the pattern j-m. The split flow is just overwhelming the pattern with pac air. Nino was to collapse hard and it did not which hurt. The IO has as SROC POINTED OUT been active in a flare up thus preventing or shunting our trop forcing. In years gone by the IO during these strong El Nino's was non existent which not many factored and expected. The pattern flip has not happened as we expected but there is still hope for Feb AND March as those are nino months that have produced big snowstorm. So we still have sometime left but it gets harder as the days go on with this pattern.

I have not hear from Isotherm or Earthlight in over a week so I take this as a Meh. Once I do I will share their insights.

We need the PV to dislodge which models are still showing the lasy week now Jan. If this can happen it will save winter?!

by **amugs** Sat Jan 16, 2016 9:15 am

One thing I have learned from the folks on this board and others, a negative epo positive pna couplet are with their weight in gold fir our winters here. The NAO has been non existent since 10-11 and no one can explain why! We get a severely neg NAO in July screw that! ! Give it to us now. Could one imagine if we had a 3-4 Negative NAO lock in place like we had all Juy for Jan Momma Mia we'd be all crying over it in the pattern.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 16, 2016 9:28 am

Since the fall, we knew it was going to be a struggle this winter. We didn't expect much for December, and knew January was going to be a transition month. It is only mid-January. Model hugging will make you crazy, look at the big picture. No one should be surprised we haven't seen much (or anything) yet. Sure, the long range signals are not looking great right now, but how many times have we had storms on President's Day, late February and March? Is it depressing? Absolutely, but expected. Pages and pages of posts complaining isn't going to help. That and a change for me at work have kept me from the board recently. Relax and let the long range play out. If by March there hasn't been the backend storms forecast, then complain. Ok, rant over Razz

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 16, 2016 9:46 am

Not throwing in the towel until the end of Feb.If the picture is the same then as now, well it was always going to be a risky winter with the strong Hellnino.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 16, 2016 9:52 am

What I like the most is learning why it didn't happen so it can help us in the future with trying to predict what may happen in the winter season. Also as Dunzoo pointed out this was expected that December warm just not to the extreme and January transition month which it is. Yes weeklies aren't looking good but the LR hasn't done any justice so for me if we get into mid February with nothing I'll panic but then again it's hard to do bc my area avg like 18 inches a year and one just one storm can do it. With that said the last couple years I've had my fair share and beyond. Now for you northern folks in the HV I here your pain. Its been a rough stretch I'm not sure of your snowfall avgs but I know it's not close. So I still ask the snow Gods to make it happen. And I hope it does. Just my two cents

by **jimv45** Sat Jan 16, 2016 10:03 am

Yea Docs around here you don't throw in the towel until March and in some years April we seen some big ones!! but this year I will give it until mid Feb if it doesn't change then i will throw it up!

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:27 am

same here i am not giving up until late feb i know this year we will see at least one snowstorm when who knows but i have a funny feeling late feb or early march we will see one storm we have been patient for a long time so please let it snow

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:45 am

Yep, I've been thinking the Feb 25th to March 10th time frame for a big one.That's far enough out for the pattern change, if it's going to happen this year, to produce.

by **jimv45** Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:53 am

yea doc that would be good I just want one big one would like more but this winter just give me a big one.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:41 pm

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

hey thanks for the beautiful map...but aren't you supposed to be off this weekend enjoying yourself..not worrying about weather???!! LOL....

by **snow247** Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

That sure would make CP and Doc happy if it verified Laughing

by **billg315** Sat Jan 16, 2016 4:01 pm

I like this map in that it dumps about a foot and a half of snow on me. I don't like that just 50 miles south of me it shows about an inch or two, I presume because it would be mostly rain there. That is little margin for error and we're still a week out. In fact in some areas the difference between an inch and a foot looks to be about 20 miles. Which tells me this would be one of those razor's edge "when and/or will it change to rain" type storms, which I hate. But at least it is a glimmer of hope for a storm. Let's see how this one plays out.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:21 pm

Had my first big fire in my firepit which I hadn't done since last winter. We'll see if this changes our luck even though Im usually not very supersticious.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 16, 2016 5:32 pm

For those that are curious, 18z GFS snowfall:

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 8 Gfs_snow_depth_nyc_30

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