Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

by **hyde345** Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:57 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
hyde345 wrote:It's early but Hudson valley could get screwed on this again. I will lose it if that happens.

Don't forget about us EPA people. UGH !

At least you got something from the last storm. I'm looking at green grass in early February.

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:59 pm

hyde345 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
hyde345 wrote:It's early but Hudson valley could get screwed on this again. I will lose it if that happens.

Don't forget about us EPA people. UGH !

At least you got something from the last storm. I'm looking at green grass in early February.

I feel your pain. Believe me I do. Sad

by **jimv45** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:07 pm

yea Hyde sometimes storms like to follow a track like a train and go the same route!! But the city just got one but it was the big one!!! just got that feeling come next week we will get the shaft again!!

by Guest Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:09 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:GFS holy miller B
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020312&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=147

THIS CANNOT BE ACCURATE!! I HOPE IT IS BUT NO WAY. A LP THAT DEEPENS 30+ MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS AND DURING THAT TIME GOES FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TO JUST EAST OF CAPE COD!!!! IT WOULD MAKE JONAS LOOK SMALL!!!!! Shocked

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:21 pm

EURO RUNNIN PEEPS HERE WE GO!!

WAVE DUECE CLOSE CALL

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 9 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f120

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:23 pm

HOLY POOP CMC - JUST SAW THIS - MADOONNNEE - BRING MY CANADIAN COMPADRES!!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 9 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:25 pm

WTH EURO WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE??

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:26 pm

DARN NORTHERN VORT IS SITTING UP IN THE GL NOW INSTEAD OF DIGGING COME ON!!

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:30 pm

it is sliding ots on teh euro - wave two to close to the coast came up and is not giving enough space for teh 3rd wave to come up - heights are low on the coast due to this

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 9 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f150

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 9 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f150

see ya

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:35 pm

Very disheartening EURO run. Compared to 00z 500mb looked drastically different. We need the wave 2 system to quickly move out of the picture or else wave 3 has no room to amplify. Uhg

by **mako460** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Mugs...do u really want to be in the jackpot 6 days out? We will reel her back in...slowly..over the next few days

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:51 pm

The cm,c brightens my day then the Euro crushes it lol. Not to worry models go be all over 150 hrs out. I storm like this on a weekday will make my commute hell.

by **algae888** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:53 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Very disheartening EURO run. Compared to 00z 500mb looked drastically different. We need the wave 2 system to quickly move out of the picture or else wave 3 has no room to amplify. Uhg

Frank it looks like wave 2 is much stronger on today's 12z euro. I think we need one of two things to happen. 1) the southern wave is weaker and quicker Or 2.) its stronger and slows down and gets captured by the northern stream. Anyway it's a very precarious setup with huge upside and downside potential

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:55 pm

I think models may try to consolidate all these waves. There's no way both wave 2 and wave 3 can happen. Maybe models are trending to making wave 2 the bigger storm threat. I think we're in line to get one or the other. We'll see.

by Guest Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think models may try to consolidate all these waves. There's no way both wave 2 and wave 3 can happen. Maybe models are trending to making wave 2 the bigger storm threat. I think we're in line to get one or the other. We'll see.

I agree Frank. No way you get 2 monster storms blowing up within 36 hours in the same location. It doesn't make meteorological sense. There is just so much energy in play the models don't know which ones to grab onto. Kind of like Jonas 1 week out. Anyway what does the Now A Model say 3 days from now. That's what I care about. Wink

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:55 pm

This is going to be fun tracking here si all I can say - my god there is so many vort and energy in this long range.

Mako no I am not talking being the bullseye at all I just want the evolution to be there at the H5 - this is crazy.

by **mako460** Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:06 pm

we're all crazy Mugs, crazy is what we do!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:05 pm

18z GFS hr 117
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020318&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=117

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:07 pm

123
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020318&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=123

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:08 pm

126 mod precip over NJ
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020318&time=6&var=PRMSL&hour=126

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:09 pm

129 precip
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020318&time=6&var=APCPI&hour=129

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:11 pm

Blah too late, light to moderate snowfall inv troughlike over NJ going over LI this frame
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020318&time=6&var=PRMSL&hour=132

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:27 pm

12z GEFS, wow, look at some of the solns showing a total phase and the storm it becomes, amazing potential

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html#picture

by **algae888** Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:47 pm

nws disco.... should be fun tracking this one. I think Shocked

MEANWHILE...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM WELL OUTSIDE OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/03 ECMWF IS NOW THROWING SOME QPF BACK
INTO AREAS E OF NYC...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR MON. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST ONCE
BETTER SAMPLING OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE...THEN POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED.

THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE
PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM
REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:45 pm

So hearing wave 2 and 3 isn't looking so good on latest models. Still have lots of time here

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:28 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:So hearing wave 2 and 3 isn't looking so good on latest models. Still have lots of time here

The players are still on the field. I believe the problem today is that the models are not sure which energy to key on. Like Frank mentioned earlier, the models may very well consolidate everything into one storm in future runs.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:13 am

Frank what are your thoughts on last nights runs for next week's threat(s)? I'm hearing although we did not achieve the results that we wanted, it would not take much for a big storm.

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