Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[nutleyblizzard]

So hearing wave 2 and 3 isn't looking so good on latest models. Still have lots of time here

The players are still on the field. I believe the problem today is that the models are not sure which energy to key on. Like Frank mentioned earlier, the models may very well consolidate everything into one storm in future runs.

[nutleyblizzard]

Frank what are your thoughts on last nights runs for next week's threat(s)? I'm hearing although we did not achieve the results that we wanted, it would not take much for a big storm.

[Radz]

Guessing there wasn't much to talk about on the over night's, hoping once tomorrow's feature moves through we may start to see some consistency concerning next week's threats...

[algae888]

this is the time frame frank likes a lot...

oh I forgot mugs has this too. I think he was first on this one!

[amugs]

this is the time frame frank likes a lot...

oh I forgot mugs has this too. I think he was first on this one!

THX AL - CALLED A PD TRES JAN 30TH AND MADE A CALL BACK IN NOV FOR SUCH - LOVE THIS TIME FRAME IN ANALOGS.

[amugs]

OMG THIS IS JUST GORGEOUS - REMEMBER I POSTED THE GEM?? AND SAID I LOVED IT WELL WOW -NAO COMING UP - EPIC POSSSIBILITY HERE!!

[frank 638]

This is getting better and better come on storm

[algae888]

that a pretty impressive look on the 12z euro at day 10. I know models have been backing off the cold as we get closer to the day but maybe what mugs, scott and frank have been saying is right. if we get that cold with those s/w out west then as mugs would say BOOM!!!. we may not be as cold as last feb. but we may not get much sleep. WOW!

[amugs]

For those of you who follow Dr. Cohen on twitter, check out the study he posted regarding the tendency for model guidance to perform poorly in the troposphere during/following stratospheric warming events. I think a large part of the issue is precisely that - model data hasn't fully resolved those stratospheric effects, especially since the peak of the warming is still a few days away. I would expect changes to continue over the next few days FOR THE GOOD!!! HENCE, COLDER WITH THE NAO LOOKING TO GO NEG IN THE TIME FRAME.

[Guest]

For those of you who follow Dr. Cohen on twitter, check out the study he posted regarding the tendency for model guidance to perform poorly in the troposphere during/following stratospheric warming events. I think a large part of the issue is precisely that - model data hasn't fully resolved those stratospheric effects, especially since the peak of the warming is still a few days away. I would expect changes to continue over the next few days FOR THE GOOD!!! HENCE, COLDER WITH THE NAO LOOKING TO GO NEG IN THE TIME FRAME.

Give me some snow Paisan. LGR

[amugs]

For those of you who follow Dr. Cohen on twitter, check out the study he posted regarding the tendency for model guidance to perform poorly in the troposphere during/following stratospheric warming events. I think a large part of the issue is precisely that - model data hasn't fully resolved those stratospheric effects, especially since the peak of the warming is still a few days away. I would expect changes to continue over the next few days FOR THE GOOD!!! HENCE, COLDER WITH THE NAO LOOKING TO GO NEG IN THE TIME FRAME.

Give me some snow Paisan.  LGR

I AM TOMORROW - HAHAHAHA!! LGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jmanley32]

Wow gfs fantasy hr 264......

[RJB8525]

Gregory said tonight he sees a big storm for the 14-15th

[SNOW MAN]

Lonnie just said 4 chances of snow next week and he didn't even have his sleeves rolled up !

[SNOW MAN]

Janet huff just said 3 chances for snow next week.

[snow247]

GFS says we get very cold late week.

[amugs]

Gregory said tonight he sees a big storm for the 14-15th

Mugstradamus strikes again!!
15-16 is a wow on ens and ops, relaxation of the ao by not much and a nao n and MOMMA MIA!!

[amugs]

Light to moderate events, the clipper on Friday is going to interesting in my eatimation. And oh I said 8th then the 10-12 hmmmmmm?m also PD3 14-17?
WHO'S UR DADDY?????

[Frank_Wx]

Gregory said tonight he sees a big storm for the 14-15th

This stoem has massive potential and is the time frame I called out in my winter outlook. Main reasons being:

1. Extreme cold is going to relax
2. NAO going from negative to positive 
3. Split Flow 

I will do an in depth writeup about this time frame in the next Mo Mo. Not to say we won't see snow before then. Minor to moderate accumulations likely this week from the inverted trough then a smaller threat possible next weekend too

[Radz]

Light to moderate events, the clipper on Friday is going to interesting in my eatimation. And oh I said 8th then the 10-12 hmmmmmm?m also PD3 14-17?
WHO'S UR DADDY?????

I am so ready for a PD3 Mugs!!! 2003 was an awesome storm!!!

[snow247]

GFS still showing the storm chance for the 15th time period.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS still showing the storm chance for the 15th time period.

The 15th-18th is the next one and it has fantastic potential

[Frank_Wx]

Check out the cold next weekend. Be prepared to spend V-Day indoors, which I guess is not a bad thing. 

Friday 7am temps 



Friday 1pm temps


Monday (15th) 7am temps 




The theme the end of next week into V-Day Weekend will be the cold.

The theme the week of the 15th will be our next big potential storm threat

[frank 638]

Maddone that's cold with the snow pack we are getting for Tues I think it will be colder

[skinsfan1177]

So are we looking at any storms ahead I know it was mentioned the 14-16th timeframe was good

[Guest]

I just checked the Weather Channel's forecast for my area for the 15th-18th. All told, they're trying to convince me this area will get 10-14". Dec. and Jan. combined to bring 7".

[Snow88]

Euro has a snowstorm on Saturday. Clipper digs and goes up the coast.

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