Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[SNOW MAN]

The Met in Philly last night made a bold statement and said that next weeks possible event was definitely going OTS. I just chuckled and said to my wife, we'll see about that.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The Met in Philly last night made a bold statement and said that next weeks possible event was definitely going OTS. I just chuckled and said to my wife, we'll see about that.

We know their track record Snow Man, I'd be more worried if they said it was going to bury us.

Anyway the 6Z GFS has a coastal hugger midweek with rain on the front end and back end heavy snow in the HV. At this point I'm just glad the storm is still there, track and precip types are meaningless this far out.

[Snow88]

Euro Para is east and colder than op run

[RJB8525]

take it for what its worth TWC has Tuesday night 1-3" rain/show Wednesday rain/snow 3-5"

put in my old town staten island , and just rain

[sroc4]

In case anyone was wondering about the 12z GFS.  If you saw it it was a cutter.  If you look at the 500mb charts 06z vs the 12z you can clearly see the Polar Vortex(PV) is centered over the Eastern Hudson Bay(HB) on the 6z vs north of the HB on the 12z.  




This subtle change at 500mb is the difference between a track over eastern LI vs an inland track:




The trouble is the STJ is amped, so as soon as the phase happens with the nothern stream its going to want to head north.  We need the PV to be far enough south to prevent the N and S branch from phasing too soon, and immediately cutting when it does.   There is still a strong HP trying to build, but the positive heights in the NW Atlantic have to back off a little or center further east to allow the +PNA/-EPO to drive the PV far enough south.



Remember there are still huge changes at 500mb from model to model and run to run.  Personally this far out I would rather not be in the bullseye on any model.  My gut tells me that this wont be a cutter.  GEFS and EPS agree on a significant PNA spike and are similar on the -EPO although the GEFS are more bullish.  The MJO as per the Euro looks like it wants to be entering phase 8 right around that time.  All things that point to more trough in the east. This time of year cold still wins against warm in most cases when push comes to shove.  Like a stealthy hunter...We track!    

[sroc4]

FWIW the 12z CMC has a similar position to the PV north of the HB. Result on the surface is an inland track:

[chief7]

Of hearing the CMC ensembles our way east

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro is a big hit. 8-12 for NYC. More as you head west.

[algae888]

Euro is a big hit. 8-12 for NYC. More as you head west.

YESSSS!!!! it look like it recognize the banana hp and doesn't cut also slower to phase

[algae888]

[algae888]

850's

[nutleyblizzard]

The western atlantic ridge (WAR) is weaker with the EURO versus what the GFS shows thus allowing for a more eastern track.

[sroc4]

The western atlantic ridge (WAR) is weaker with the EURO versus what the GFS shows thus allowing for a more eastern track.

Yup and like Al pointed out later phase, which is def a key to this as well.

[algae888]

The western atlantic ridge (WAR) is weaker with the EURO versus what the GFS shows thus allowing for a more eastern track.

yes read that on another board....

euro

gfs
it allows the low to come further east up the coast. also western ridge axis is slightly east on euro and much more amplified than gfs. looking at pna data euro may be more accurate att.

[sroc4]

00z Euro valid 12z feb 24th fully phased



12z euro valid same time. Not phased yet

[amugs]

12Z Euro

The appetizer??



Then THE MAIN MEAL.









HV AND NNJ

[amugs]

LOOK AT THE H5 YOU SEE A MASSIVE STJ AGAIN - ALL WE NEED IS THE COLD AIR - NEED THE PV TO SET UP AS THE EURO AND PARA DEPICT IT AND WE ALL CASH IN

[amugs]

HERE YOU GO HV FELLAS - FORGOT THE LAST FRAME

[amugs]

990 LP EAST OF ACY (ATLANTIC CITY) HEADING NE.

[algae888]

euro snow map for you cp and snowman...

[skinsfan1177]

I do think this has a chance to go a little more east and we all get in the game.

[amugs]

JB ON THE STRATO



THEN



THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE PV STARTS TO WEAKEN SO IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE IF THIS HAPPENED.

[algae888]

and we have the jma on our side...

[amugs]

THIS IS A SPLITSVILLE OF THE PV

[jmanley32]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own. Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

[amugs]

VERIFY PLEASE OH PLEASE VERIFY:
6-10 DAYS


PARA SAYS SO



11-15 DAYS - HOLY MAP !!

[sroc4]

GFS and CMC inland traqcks, Euro on its own.  Doesn't seem to look gr8, am I wrong? I remember some people saying the Euro has been aweful this season.?

Dont be surprised to see waffling with all the models over the next few days

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