Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[Guest]

I checked EPAWA and they have the 12z run at hr 144 for the op and ensemble as almost identical save for the stronger low on the op.

[Biggin23]

GFS has the storm mid week in Ohio and Michigan. Not sure anything can happen drastic enough to bring it back this way.

However, the model changes this winter seem to be massive. I have only been following the weather closely the last four years, but I don't think I have ever seen as many drastic changes and misses as this winter, so who know what can happen the rest of the way....

[sroc4]

GFS has the storm mid week in Ohio and Michigan. Not sure anything can happen drastic enough to bring it back this way.

However, the model changes this winter seem to be massive. I have only been following the weather closely the last four years, but I don't think I have ever seen as many drastic changes and misses as this winter, so who know what can happen the rest of the way....

You ain't kiddin Biggin. Atrocious is the word that comes to mind.

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO and GFS agree the 24th-25th storm will cut to our west. We've seen a handful of cutters this winter and I noticed a commonality with all of them:

No blocking! 

The upper energy coming out of the Pacific is SO strong this season. H5 is closing off once it crosses the Rockies. This means the SE ridge amplifies ahead of the mean trough and the storm tracks well to our west as a result. The only way to combat this in El Nino regimes is to have a west-based -NAO. Not even a -EPO is enough to fight the STJ. 

It is what it is. Hopefully March has more to offer.

[sroc4]

I know many have lost interest in tracking this system because it has trended unfavorable for most, but now that I have had a chance to look at the 00z runs from last night it is truly mind boggling to me.  First off I have to say the amount of inconsistency at both 500mb, and naturally at the surface, on the GFS and the Euro operational models with this system STILL run after run after run has been spell binding.  It tells me that they are still out to lunch; esp the GFS.  The GFS 06z this morning takes the LP on a track through eastern Indiana up through Michigan?????????.  I am fairly confident that that wont happen so throw it out.  

Now normally when I see an operational model all over the place I look to its ensemble forecast to see if it has support.  Remember the ensemble forecast is many runs averaged out.  And low and behold both the GFS ensemble and the Euro ensemble means are way east of their operational forecasts.  

00z GFS OP VS 00z GFS ENSEMBLE:




00z EURO OP VS 00z EURO ENSEMBLE:




Now to be fair the Ukie which has been one of the better winter models this season has been consistent in its track through western NY/W PA which is west of the aforementioned ensembles but has shown a shift east with successive runs.  I don't have 500mb for the Ukie, but both the Euro and GFS close off the system at 500mb early and the western track ensues from there.  



On the other hand the Canadian still has a track over Eastern LI:



Now one thing is becoming clear.  There will most likely be an initial weaker wave that moves through the area on Tuesday; followed by the main event Wed-Thurs.  If true this could be a game changer.  So how do you make sense of it all.  I mean you have operation models changing their storm track by hundreds of miles from run to run because the energy depiction at 500mb changes from run to run.  Here is my take.  


On Thursday afternoon this was my cone of uncertainty for the track put out before the shift west on the ensemble forecasts that ensued over night Thursday into Friday.  


I am shifting my new cone of uncertainty west, but not by that much, about 100-125miles.


My track is based on a blend of the Ensemble mean and the CMC.  As of now I am leaning to the left side of the storm track but this track is anything but a lock.  There are a few other things to note.  First, with so much uncertainty of the track who gets what and when and how and why, and how much simply cannot be answered.  One thing I will say is if the weak wave followed by the main event unfolds like I think then watch the temp profiles trend colder and colder as we get inside 24-48hrs out.  Look at the CMC and Euro surface map to get an idea why.    

When the models lost the two wave idea there was nothing but a  S/SE wind flow into the main system as it came up the coast:



In the next images pay little attention to the exact position of the LP but pay more attn. to the HP to the N.  Slowly but surely with the trend towards this weak wave first followed by the stronger system second the HP that was modeled to be centered in the Canadian maritimesee above) is now trending stronger back west over NE.  Instead we have the first wave move underneath the HP and now we have a stronger likely hood that a N/NE flow is still hanging on as second wave approaches if this hold true.  



This trend tells me that if it were to cont as we approach zero hr for     the second wave the temp profiles will trend colder as well.  Nothing more than this general statement about temps can be made as we are way to far out.  I could be way off in this assessment, but its what I am seeing this morning.  The MJO forecast still supports the idea of a colder soln in my opinion, as does the ridge axis placement and strength in the western CONUS.  Make no mistake I am not calling for a BM track, and in all likely hood the vast majority of us, esp the coastal plain changes over to rain, but this storm is not done yet trending for better or worse.

[skinsfan1177]

My question is how does the pattern look to evolve going into march

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just an excellent write up Scott.

I'm actually starting to understand the whole picture finally. It's only taken me what, 10 years since the accu weather chat board?

[Radz]

Look at the 12z NAM vs the 06z GFS for 00z Wednesday. One of those models is setting up to be horrendously wrong.

06zGFS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022006/gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png



12z NAM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022012/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png

Or both will be horrendously wrong

[SoulSingMG]

I know many have lost interest in tracking this system because it has trended unfavorable for most, but now that I have had a chance to look at the 00z runs from last night it is truly mind boggling to me.  First off I have to say the amount of inconsistency at both 500mb, and naturally at the surface, on the GFS and the Euro operational models with this system STILL run after run after run has been spell binding.  It tells me that they are still out to lunch; esp the GFS.  The GFS 06z this morning takes the LP on a track through eastern Indiana up through Michigan?????????.  I am fairly confident that that wont happen so throw it out.  

Now normally when I see an operational model all over the place I look to its ensemble forecast to see if it has support.  Remember the ensemble forecast is many runs averaged out.  And low and behold both the GFS ensemble and the Euro ensemble means are way east of their operational forecasts.  

00z GFS OP VS 00z GFS ENSEMBLE:




00z EURO OP VS 00z EURO ENSEMBLE:




Now to be fair the Ukie which has been one of the better winter models this season has been consistent in its track through western NY/W PA which is west of the aforementioned ensembles but has shown a shift east with successive runs.  I don't have 500mb for the Ukie, but both the Euro and GFS close off the system at 500mb early and the western track ensues from there.  



On the other hand the Canadian still has a track over Eastern LI:



Now one thing is becoming clear.  There will most likely be an initial weaker wave that moves through the area on Tuesday; followed by the main event Wed-Thurs.  If true this could be a game changer.  So how do you make sense of it all.  I mean you have operation models changing their storm track by hundreds of miles from run to run because the energy depiction at 500mb changes from run to run.  Here is my take.  


On Thursday afternoon this was my cone of uncertainty for the track put out before the shift west on the ensemble forecasts that ensued over night Thursday into Friday.  


I am shifting my new cone of uncertainty west, but not by that much, about 100-125miles.


My track is based on a blend of the Ensemble mean and the CMC.  As of now I am leaning to the left side of the storm track but this track is anything but a lock.  There are a few other things to note.  First, with so much uncertainty of the track who gets what and when and how and why, and how much simply cannot be answered.  One thing I will say is if the weak wave followed by the main event unfolds like I think then watch the temp profiles trend colder and colder as we get inside 24-48hrs out.  Look at the CMC and Euro surface map to get an idea why.    

When the models lost the two wave idea there was nothing but a  S/SE wind flow into the main system as it came up the coast:



In the next images pay little attention to the exact position of the LP but pay more attn. to the HP to the N.  Slowly but surely with the trend towards this weak wave first followed by the stronger system second the HP that was modeled to be centered in the Canadian maritimesee above) is now trending stronger back west over NE.  Instead we have the first wave move underneath the HP and now we have a stronger likely hood that a N/NE flow is still hanging on as second wave approaches if this hold true.  



This trend tells me that if it were to cont as we approach zero hr for     the second wave the temp profiles will trend colder as well.  Nothing more than this general statement about temps can be made as we are way to far out.  I could be way off in this assessment, but its what I am seeing this morning.  The MJO forecast still supports the idea of a colder soln in my opinion, as does the ridge axis placement and strength in the western CONUS.  Make no mistake I am not calling for a BM track, and in all likely hood the vast majority of us, esp the coastal plain changes over to rain, but this storm is not done yet trending for better or worse.

"SPELL BINDING" (phrase of the day!)


Great write-up! Bernie Rayno agrees with you. Lots of changes still in store with this.

[sroc4]

Only a 350 miles shift east on 12z relative to 6z on the GFS

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Only a 350 miles shift east on 12z relative to 6z on the GFS

Only another 350 to go. Will probably get that tonight and we'll be golden, at least until tomorrow mornings.

[sroc4]

Rb I started a new thread for this system.  Can you coppy and past this over in the new thread.  Then Ill delete it from here. We will cont the discussions beyone this system here

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like another Arcric blast the end of this month with a possible snow threat between 28th-29th.

[rb924119]

Good to go, Scott!!

[Frank_Wx]

Poleward -EPO with a -AO/-NAO. This is as good as it may get considering how the winter has gone. Need to see the trough axis get a little sharper over the east. 

[sroc4]

Just an excellent write up Scott.

I'm actually starting to understand the whole picture finally. It's only taken me what, 10 years since the accu weather chat board?

Thanks BTW CP.

[Frank_Wx]

The Mo Mo will return Monday and it will discuss why February could end with a bang, and a preview of what March may be like.

[frank 638]

Frank I hope u are feeling much better get ur rest and I can't to read ur mo mo

[Frank_Wx]

LR guidance is hinting at a winter storm or two between the 28th and 3rd. Another arctic blast is expected the last few days of this month into March.

[weatherwatchermom]

LR guidance is hinting at a winter storm or two between the 28th and 3rd. Another arctic blast is expected the last few days of this month into March.

Good Morning Frank! Hope this morning finds you stronger..all I have to say to your comment above is from your mouth..to you know who's ears!! We need to go out with a bang!! for everyone!!

[algae888]

The Mo Mo will return Monday and it will discuss why February could end with a bang, and a preview of what March may be like.

here is one of them frank...

cmc

gfs

[amugs]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

[frank 638]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

[Math23x7]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

If it is going to be this cold in March, I want the snow.  If we're not getting the snow, I would just like it to be warm, especially after March 13th as that's the day that Daylight Savings Time begins.  

PS: frank638, with all due respect, when you post a reply on a thread, it is probably best to post it in the main portion of the message and not in the title portion.  Just my opinion though.

[docstox12]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

If it is going to be this cold in March, I want the snow.  If we're not getting the snow, I would just like it to be warm, especially after March 13th as that's the day that Daylight Savings Time begins.  

PS: frank638, with all due respect, when you post a reply on a thread, it is probably best to post it in the main portion of the message and not in the title portion.  Just my opinion though.

Agreed.Sure hope it is not a cold, rainy spring.UGH!

[Math23x7]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

If it is going to be this cold in March, I want the snow.  If we're not getting the snow, I would just like it to be warm, especially after March 13th as that's the day that Daylight Savings Time begins.  

PS: frank638, with all due respect, when you post a reply on a thread, it is probably best to post it in the main portion of the message and not in the title portion.  Just my opinion though.

Agreed.Sure hope it is not a cold, rainy spring.UGH!

I would take March 2012 (no snow and the 2nd warmest March on record for CPK) over March 2014 (cold with only 0.1" of snow, which came from a system that days earlier was forecasted to give NYC 6-12" of snow.)

[Guest]

Probably be a repeat of Valentine's Day. That's the way it's been this year.

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