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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:00 pm

The NAO really failed us this year. Most of the time it's an overrated telecommunicator (ie: the last few years) but this year with a strong El Nino and knowing that the EPO wouldn't be as robust as the last several years it has had the biggest impact on this winter here in the Northeast imo. It's probably the main reason why we haven't had high pressure anchored over Quebec and holding its ground As numerous short waves kept coming through the flow. How many of the short waves would have slowed down and bombed out if it was negative. The one time it was negative this winter Jonas occurred. What we learn from this  going forward is strong El Ninos without a negative nao is below average snowfall in the Northeast and that the NAO should be weighed heavily in these situations
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:04 pm

@jimv45 wrote:I think it might be for you and people around the I-95 south still to early but there is a decent chance for us northern peeps to get something!
Jim yes obviously further away from the coast the better chances but I think right now what happened on Monday and Tuesday of this week is probably going to happen again with the storm cutting way to the West.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:08 pm

An anomalously positive PNA without help from the other Teleconnectors can't do it for our area. storms are going to cut in such a regime
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:14 pm

The way this winter has been way west is on the table but the models are all over the place right now so it all just a guess I will wait until Monday.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:16 pm

@jimv45 wrote:I think it might be for you and people around the I-95 south still to early but there is a decent chance for us northern peeps to get something!

I agree, but if the UKIE is on to something and as Al stated it's one of the few that has been consistent on this storm, no one anywhere on our forum is getting snow with a storm track over Cleveland

The 12Z GFS is a track that will heavily favor the HV and where we can finally make out this year.

The Sunday night thing seems like it's going to far south, to bad too because that's another setup where the HV and NEPA, would make out the best.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:36 pm

12z EURO: lots & lots of rain next week for the Big Apple. cheers
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:38 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:12z EURO: lots & lots of rain next week for the Big Apple. cheers

Is snow still on the table for inland?
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:46 pm

What I'm hearing is that the euro has two waves for next week the first one is snow to rain for most of the area the second one is all rain for all of the area I'm hearing weatherbell snow maps or 6 plus north and west of the city for the first wave and a few inches in the city all washed away by one to two inches of rain after
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:54 pm

Not a bad Euro run - 2 waves first one snwo to rain - second one inland runner.

Okay, we need that Northern Vort in GL region to scoot east and drap us/reinforce teh cold air - I cant see why it holds this back and hangs it up here for two days? IF this piece of cold reinforcing air makes it through then I think we could see two snow events - I woudl really like to see us consolidate this event into one bigger event that we all would benefit from but it is wait and see.

Good look on euro in comparison to the GFS.

BTW, JB says GFS is on crack with its depiction of this pattern - we'll see, says east coast track wether inland or hugger is the likelihood of this storm

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:55 pm

EURO - BETTER COME BACK TO THE IDEA YOU HAD TWO DAYS AGO!!

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 25 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f117

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 25 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f120

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 25 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f123


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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:55 pm

hey I will take the 6 plus the way this winter has gone even if it goes to rain!

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:11 pm

Mugs the euro is a weird solution it has actually three low-pressure centers one off the Jersey coast 1 in Tennessee and one in southwest PA. the one in southwest PA is preventing cold air from rushing in and shifting the baroclinic zone East to help with our second storm. I doubt very much this will be the final solution and again with such an anomalously +PNA I would be surprised if there's not one big consolidated low that runs west of us. Especially with a positive nao and a neutral ao.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:20 pm

I think our best shot at seeing some snow is to have the two separate low idea. The first one would bring snow to rain more inland and then drag in some cold air behind it and maybe get a snow storm with the second wave. both GFS and Euro show this today however gfs has second low off the coast and Euro has second low to our West so somewhere in between and bingo
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:24 pm

Algae I agree the NAO has let us down this year. So many prominent Mets - not just myself - forecasted the NAO to be predominately negative. Especially by Febraury. The strong Strat PV is likely the main reason why we've not see a sustained -NAO. As Isotherm posted, there's a chance a SSWE will occur late this month and the NAO may go negative sometime in March.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:43 pm

@algae888 wrote:Mugs the euro is a weird solution it has actually three low-pressure centers one off the Jersey coast 1 in Tennessee and one in southwest PA. the one in southwest PA is preventing cold air from rushing in and shifting the baroclinic zone East to help with our second storm. I doubt very much this will be the final solution and again with such an anomalously +PNA I would be surprised if there's not one big consolidated low that runs west of us. Especially with a positive nao and a neutral ao.

The Euro felt like it was in between two solns. It was like do I want to be one beast or do I want to split the energy into two? Lets see what ensembles say

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:54 pm

I don't want a negative NAO in March. By then I'm ready for spring, trout fishing and golf.

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:19 pm

18z gfs lol Congrats Chicago
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:27 pm

Para euro has the same track as the 18 ZGFS for the second storm check Bernie Rayno's video today he feels the models will be keying on the second wave although he didn't think Chicago was the main target he thought it would run right up 95.lol
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:54 pm

Just saw this on Twitter sunny

GFS be like...

Long Range Thread 10.0 - Page 25 Image10
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Post by devsman Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:24 pm

With western trend bias this winter, this thing is gonna end up in Winnipeg.
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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:37 pm

The GFS performance is embarrassing. 06z shows a track thru Ohio and western NY, 12z shows a track from mid-atlantic coast to new England, then 18z shows a snowstorm for Illinois and Michigan. LMAO.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:03 pm

At this rate it may go back to the Pacific has that happened before
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:08 pm

Euro ensembles look to be locking in.

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:52 pm

I checked EPAWA and they have the 12z run at hr 144 for the op and ensemble as almost identical save for the stronger low on the op.

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Post by Biggin23 Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:23 pm

GFS has the storm mid week in Ohio and Michigan. Not sure anything can happen drastic enough to bring it back this way.

However, the model changes this winter seem to be massive. I have only been following the weather closely the last four years, but I don't think I have ever seen as many drastic changes and misses as this winter, so who know what can happen the rest of the way....

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