Re: February 9th Possible Inverted Trough

by **Math23x7** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:05 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Someone help me out here. Isn't it too early to use the NAM and Rgem, or are we in range?

Frank's response:

TELL JAMES MONDAY IS ONLY 48 HOURS AWAY.

AND THE NAM WAS NAILING JONAS FROM 84 HOURS OUT

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:06 pm

Frank and scott the rgem does something crazy as the low moves offshore it tries to redevelop closer to the coast and it's still snowing at the end of ats range.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:07 pm

Why is Frank telling cp what to write lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:07 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Frank sent this message to me:

THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING BIG SNOW FOR WAVE 2 AND I CAN'T GET ON THE FORUM. SOMEONE RELAY THE MESSAGE

A Moderate event maybe, but it continues to trend NW with precip shield at least. Unless I'm out to lunch I don't see big snow, 3-6 maybe.

Frank also sent this:

THE RH FIELD ON THE NAM IS LARGER THAN 12Z

CP, I told Frank what you said, his response:

TELL CP THIS IS A HIGH RATIO EVENT WITH A DECAYING CCB. IT'S 6+ FOR MANY

Mike, tell Frank this party

by **Math23x7** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:10 pm

Frank just said this:

I'm over nonnas. I'll be home around 6 with a writeup and snowmap out at 7pm.

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:12 pm

The rgem looks like it has multiple low pressure centers within the center of circulation. As it moves up the coast it looks like it transfers the moisture and energy West. I'm wondering if the trough in the Midwest is trying to capture it. weirdest thing I ever saw

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:13 pm

Its center almost wobbles like a hurricane that's the best way I can describe it

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:17 pm

algae888 wrote:The rgem looks like it has multiple low pressure centers within the center of circulation. As it moves up the coast it looks like it transfers the moisture and energy West. I'm wondering if the trough in the Midwest is trying to capture it. weirdest thing I ever saw

Im thinking the same thing. Im waiting on weathber bell to catch up so I can see the diff levels.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:17 pm

I'm starting to excited about this storm. What model runs will both storms be sampled in? That may tell the tale here

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:18 pm

rgem is coming in slower than prev runs. The slower it moves the mre chance it gets captured

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:19 pm

I'm hearing 15 to 1 ratios on the nam

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:20 pm

This is freaking unbelievable the rgem precipitation field is 100 miles west from 12 z

by Guest Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:20 pm

I'm starting to get excited. 3 FEET OR BUST!!! just kidding. Kind of!

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:23 pm

algae888 wrote:Its center almost wobbles like a hurricane that's the best way I can describe it

That sounds like to me and I wish Frank was here to confirm this, but the trough might of started to go negative tilt thus "pulling" the storm closer to the coast. From here on out we should only follow the short range models as they tend to catch on to things better in such a complex setup.

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:26 pm

Guys Since yest system is out of the way from this point forward refer to Sunday night into Monday as WAVE 1 and Moon night into Tues/wed Wave 2

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:27 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
algae888 wrote:Its center almost wobbles like a hurricane that's the best way I can describe it
That sounds like to me and I wish Frank was here to confirm this, but the trough might of started to go negative tilt thus "pulling" the storm closer to the coast. From here on out we should only follow the short range models as they tend to catch on to things better in such a complex setup.

Rgem gets to 970 mb that's hurricane strength

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:29 pm

That is one huge storm on the rgem no wonder National Weather Service is really concerned

by **amugs** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:30 pm

At my sons ice hockey match in the freezer and mobile but huge fn changes my god the slp starts to get tugged back

00z NAM at 63 hours on top, 18z NAM at 45 hours on the bottom. There are huge differences with the orientation of the northern stream trough. It's a much more consolidated and negatively tilted trough, which allows our storm to get tugged back towards the coast.

US500mb0063.gif

US500mb1845.gif

Most particularly, look at the flow in West Virginia. It goes from a raging sw to se flow that is fn key! !

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:34 pm

algae888 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
algae888 wrote:Its center almost wobbles like a hurricane that's the best way I can describe it
That sounds like to me and I wish Frank was here to confirm this, but the trough might of started to go negative tilt thus "pulling" the storm closer to the coast. From here on out we should only follow the short range models as they tend to catch on to things better in such a complex setup.
Rgem gets to 970 mb that's hurricane strength

Any shift west from the NAM/RGEM position at this point would put many eastern areas into a potentially hazardous situation with the strength of the low we are talking about. These small changes in the Upper Levels are worrisome.

by **algae888** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:35 pm

OH BABY!!! Upton disco

SPLIT FLOW WITH MODEL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SE US COAST SUN EVENING PIVOTING NE SUN NIGHT TO SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A SECOND LARGER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES (150 MILE SPREAD) IN TRACK OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING AND THEN SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THIS IS ACCENTUATING DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND PRECIP SHIELD...WITH SNOWFALL VARYING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO INCH FROM W TO E (GFS/ECMWF)...OR TRACE TO 2 INCHES WEST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST (GEM/NAM). OVERALL...A SLIGHT EASTWARD AND DRIER TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE VERSUS 00Z. IN TERMS OF ENSEMBLES...WESTERN LYING 15Z SREF MEAN IS HOLDING FIRM WITH AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH MEAN LYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRI- MODAL PATTERN. MEANWHILE 12Z GEFS HAS MEAN OF .05 TO .1 INCH QPF AREAWIDE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE STRONG CLUSTERING AROUND THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE...TO A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS WITH 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH QPF. 00Z AND 12Z SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LOW TRACK...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN THE STRENGTH AND INTERACTION OF THE AFORE MENTIONED UPPER LOWS. THIS NW SPREAD PATTERN...HAS MANY TIMES FAVORED WESTERN MOST SOLUTIONS OR WESTWARD TREND IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK.

by Guest Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:36 pm

Quietace wrote:
algae888 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
algae888 wrote:Its center almost wobbles like a hurricane that's the best way I can describe it
That sounds like to me and I wish Frank was here to confirm this, but the trough might of started to go negative tilt thus "pulling" the storm closer to the coast. From here on out we should only follow the short range models as they tend to catch on to things better in such a complex setup.
Rgem gets to 970 mb that's hurricane strength
Any shift west from the NAM/RGEM position at this point would put many eastern areas into a potentially hazardous situation with the strength of the low we are talking about. These small changes in the Upper Levels are worrisome.

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:Guys Since yest system is out of the way from this point forward refer to Sunday night into Monday as WAVE 1 and Moon night into Tues/wed Wave 2

If mooning Wave 2 will give us more snow I'll give it a shot, at least you said we can do it at night. My wife and kids already think I'm nuts though, this won't help.

by **Math23x7** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:49 pm

Frank just asked me, Scott, and Janet about the idea of him doing video blogs. What do you guys think?

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:54 pm

Hr 18 RAP VS HR 18 12km NAM vs GFS
February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 10 Rap_z512

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 10 Nam_z510

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 10 Gfs_z510

by **amugs** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:55 pm

February 9th Possible Inverted Trough - Page 10 GZ_D5_PN_042_0000

HOLY christ!

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:56 pm

So it's the mesos vs globals. Rgem tugged it closer to coast and I think theirs room for it to come further west. Euro is out to lunch.

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 06, 2016 4:58 pm

If their is going to be a shift it will happen tonight.N/S Low is going to be into US OBS network and will get full sampling. And Looking at short range guidance this certainty has hazardous potential.

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