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May Observations and Discussion

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essexcountypete
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May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 12:09 pm

RGEM wow THE COAST IS FRICKIN TOAST!!

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 PR_000-048_0000

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Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 12:47 pm

CMC says hello

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Gem_apcpn_neus_15

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri May 20, 2016 1:03 pm

Euro still no unmet no
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Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 1:18 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Euro still no unmet no

UKMET says YESSS!!

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 PA_000-072_0000

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 1:20 pm

GEFS WETTER - INTERESTING NOW!!

SAYS OP IS ON CRACK

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 20, 2016 1:59 pm

Is this go b all day or will the first half of tomorrow b ok? What will gusts b like about 30 to 40? I remember frank say add 15 to sustained. That's just nasty aweful. May have plan indoor.
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Post by Radz Fri May 20, 2016 2:04 pm

This really better hold off till late afternoon or the close to 15,000 of us at Fordham's commencement ceremonies will NOT be happy Sad
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 20, 2016 2:26 pm

@amugs wrote:GEFS WETTER - INTERESTING NOW!!

SAYS OP IS ON CRACK

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_10

Why is this exciting you? WHY

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri May 20, 2016 2:47 pm

What are the specifics at this time with winds and amounts for coastal areas
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Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 2:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:GEFS WETTER - INTERESTING NOW!!

SAYS OP IS ON CRACK

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_10

Why is this exciting you? WHY

I ain't no rain lover but if it going to be crappy lets go all in not some pittly showery stuff/light rain garbage we had for a week plus earlier this month - just who I am - love a good storm - just wish it was frickin' SNOW!!!

I am going to be at the shore helping my sis get her house ready - I want to see some action waves - 8 footers would be nice.

Sorry for those who had outdoor plans.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri May 20, 2016 6:25 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/user-images/573f86cbd7300.png
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri May 20, 2016 6:26 pm

GFS is a miss wow this is crazy that just shows showers
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Post by Radz Fri May 20, 2016 7:15 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:GFS is a miss wow this is crazy that just shows showers

I'll take it!
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Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 9:32 pm

Gfs maybe out ton lunch with tjis, could very well be suffering from convective feedback issue with its two time dog year bold physics. Short Range models like gnam, em lam amd rgem still showing a solid hit. They do not suffer from this issue. Let's recall this past wintwr with these storms. May want to take the middle ground here as Frank said and make this a niwcast.
RAP buries us.
We'll see.
Anyway, beautiful fricking night tonight!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri May 20, 2016 10:21 pm

NAM gives the business to the NJ coast and LI.
S&E my god

May Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Image.png.bd9894b7ef4281473401c0ae3e7800e7

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri May 20, 2016 10:25 pm

Yep, S&E, S&E.....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 20, 2016 10:29 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Yep, S&E, S&E.....

lol!

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Post by Math23x7 Fri May 20, 2016 10:30 pm

Meanwhile, the 0Z Hi-Res NAM is a swing and a miss for NYC.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat May 21, 2016 8:29 am

Recent nam model still showing south and east these models are a joke can't get it right and we are hours away.
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Post by frank 638 Sat May 21, 2016 9:09 am

Its funny because almost all the models say a massive rainstorm to nothing thank god it not winter

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Post by algae888 Sat May 21, 2016 9:29 am

The latest hrrr has no rain for the New York City area through 11 p.m. tonight. All guidance has shifted South it figures since this has been the trend lately
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat May 21, 2016 9:57 am

This is what I was saying a day or two ago south and east
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Post by algae888 Sat May 21, 2016 10:27 am

The 12z nam and 4k nam have zero rainfall for the New York City area what a joke yesterday was showing 1 to 2 inches even 3 inches or more in some spots south of the city
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat May 21, 2016 1:44 pm

So the short range models, and the GGEM, go from showing 3 inches of rain to basically nothing. Looking at the radar, it looks like we'll get basically nothing other than scattered showers. Horrible modeling with this storm. 

Luckily, temps in the 80s beginning from Wednesday on with plenty of sun

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat May 21, 2016 4:39 pm

The not a model is a big loser I will never trust it. Great job Euro sniffed this out days ago
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