Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:YIKES!!

He would have to really put the pedal to the metal to get here by Saturday afternoon/evening like that. Is it even possible?

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:05 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:06 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:HWRF

That's a cat 1 at least, major impacts. Rain and very high winds.

So what are we guessing, is the euro going to hold suit and all the other models revert again? Or is the Euro finally at least show some signs of caving to them?

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:HWRF

That's a cat 1 at least, major impacts. Rain and very high winds.

So what are we guessing, is the euro going to hold suit and all the other models revert again? Or is the Euro finally at least show some signs of caving to them?

Yeah, this isn't over land that long and doesn't really weaken it like some of the other models do.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:10 pm

JB seems to trust I nthe Euro idea, check his twitter about an hr ago. Dunno how post tweets.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:12 pm

WAR looks stronger at hr 72 of Euro, this might be a different result this run...

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:14 pm

Its west too, oh boy do we have a cave of the Euro! Please give me my faith in the GFS!

HR 96 theres Nicole forming, the one thing that may effect Matthew.

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:16 pm

WAR def stronger by hr 96 but trough still very broad out west

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:17 pm

And def west as Jman pointed out

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 31 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_5

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:And def west as Jman pointed out

Still huge diff in timing, but euro has sped up a bit, if no stall it will be close to the same time frame.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:21 pm

Hr 120 just off the SC coast, but trough way too flat, may start heading ENE after this

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:22 pm

OH S**T THIS IS NOT GOING OTS, WAR IN PLACE ITS COMING UP THE COAST, UNLESS IM SEEING IT WRONG.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:22 pm

Euro is west, but it still shows an entirely different 500mb pattern from the Plains on west.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro is west, but it still shows an entirely different 500mb pattern from the Plains on west.

gRRR, HOW CAN THAT BE SO DIFFERENT! I MEAN THOSE THINGS ARE USUALLY AT LEAST CLOSE?

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:24 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 120 just off the SC coast, but trough way too flat, may start heading ENE after this

But improved, albiet small, compared to prev. Trough a little deeper and ridge trying to go back up further west into PNA region vs just over Texas. Baby steps, but steps none the less

Yesterday:

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 31 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 31 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7

Today:

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 31 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_6

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 120 just off the SC coast, but trough way too flat, may start heading ENE after this

But improved, albiet small, compared to prev. Trough a little deeper and ridge trying to go back up further west into PNA region vs just over Texas. Baby steps, but steps none the less

Before:

Today:

Yeah, it does appear to be taking small steps toward the rest of guidance, just very slowly lol

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:30 pm

Going NE at hr 144 but looks like the trough is a little closer to bringing it in this run

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:31 pm

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:32 pm

ignore post

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:33 pm

The difference in how fast (slow) the Euro has Matthew moving versus the other models remains quite the chasm.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:35 pm

Hr 168...OTS, but definitely closer this run

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:41 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Hr 168...OTS, but definitely closer this run

Good improvements on this run . There was a stronger ridge thus it was closer to the coast initially. More interaction with the trough, and most importantly it moved faster. I also noticed the ULL moved out quicker. Partial cave to the GFS.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:49 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:52 pm

Def a partial cave to gfs is big for euro. Bet it continues. Thinking maybe by tomorrow or wed we have a consensus.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:52 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:

holy crap! That's pretty dead on for a hit! Huge shift. Wow. Very much like irene but could b stronger depending on intensity and land interaction. These aRe huge changes today.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:55 pm

The end of the euro heads se? Wth euro ur losing ur tpuch!

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
holy crap! That's pretty dead on for a hit! Huge shift. Wow. Very much like irene but could b stronger depending on intensity and land interaction. These aRe huge changes today.

Yeah haha pretty much everything came west. Maybe the more frequent balloon launches are giving the models a better idea of how the upper levels are going to play out, like the stronger Atlantic Ridge we've seen today from all models

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