HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

The end of the euro heads se? Wth euro ur losing ur tpuch!

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

holy crap! That's pretty dead on for a hit! Huge shift. Wow. Very much like irene but could b stronger depending on intensity and land interaction. These aRe huge changes today.

Yeah haha pretty much everything came west. Maybe the more frequent balloon launches are giving the models a better idea of how the upper levels are going to play out, like the stronger Atlantic Ridge we've seen today from all models

I think one more day and we can start to turn volume up on the alarm a bit. What ur thoughts frank threat increased a lot?

HWRF just destroyed NJ

Sanchize06 wrote:

This says it all. The euro is pretty much on its own.

jmanley32 wrote:I think one more day and we can start to turn volume up on the alarm a bit. What ur thoughts frank threat increased a lot?

In my Mo Mo I was leaning Euro. After this afternoon, I am leaning GFS. If you see the banner change to Storm Mode, that is when you know I am confident on impacts to our area.

aiannone wrote:This is just great. Had a 4 day weekend this weekend and now we get a possible hurricane next weekend on a Sunday when I have classes Monday. Maybe it will be enough to close Binghamton and I can come home haha. I drove all the way home for Hermine and you know how that ended lol.

Yes we do. Stay in Binghamton. If you come home, I'll ban you.

aiannone wrote:This is just great. Had a 4 day weekend this weekend and now we get a possible hurricane next weekend on a Sunday when I have classes Monday. Maybe it will be enough to close Binghamton and I can come home haha. I drove all the way home for Hermine and you know how that ended lol.

So stay where you are so you dont jinx it Alex

JMA

Yeah frank storm mode right sorry for asking. Hwrf destroys everyone pretty much!

aiannone wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:This is just great. Had a 4 day weekend this weekend and now we get a possible hurricane next weekend on a Sunday when I have classes Monday. Maybe it will be enough to close Binghamton and I can come home haha. I drove all the way home for Hermine and you know how that ended lol.

Yes we do. Stay in Binghamton. If you come home, I'll ban you.

If Binghamton Closes, I'm coming whether you like it or not haha

I feel ya I'd want to come down too.

Intensity model drops to ts at 144 hrs? I doubt that. Doesn't even make sense a few started at ts on the 12z lol. 18z shows a fast decline. Don't buy it one bit.

In my opinion, the key or keys, to this whole thing, actually lie in the eastern and northern Pacific. At work so I can't really do a full write up, but take notice of the drastic differences at H5 between the EURO and the GFS in these regions. The GFS depicts an important phase beneath the Alaskan ridge, which not only continues the look of a -EPO, but also develops an ideal Gulf of Alaska low. These allow the PNA region to spike at the perfect time and maintain a deep enough trough to capture Matthew. The EURO on the other hand, does not take part in the phase and allows the two shortwaves to remain distinct and separate entities. This prevents the -EPO and Gulf of Alaska low from developing, and maintains the progressive pattern. Which am I favoring? ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA. What am I worried about? Well, the EURO has been the most consistent with respect to its evolution and timing, although seemingly not so now. The GFS hasn't, for one, and secondly, we all know what the GFS likes to do in the colder times of the year-bombard the Eastern US with troughs and cold weather. Could this be part of the problem and reason why we are seeing the current solution come back? Possibly. Definitely? No. Moral to the story: Find a real short pier and take a nice long walk......

Although it came west the pattern is still far away from GFS...I'm curious to see euro ens...Let's not forget some of the times the euro was on it's own... i.e Sandy, Joaquin, etc.

The irony of this is too much. I had a three-day weekend planned in Sea Isle this weekend. Last time I had a three-day weekend planned there? Labor Day. Hermine. Or what was supposed to be Hermine. On a more substantive note, I posted this weekend about how these storms always (or maybe often is more accurate) seem to accelerate up the east coast faster than what is initially projected in the models (happens a lot with nor'easters too). The fact that the models seem to be moving up the arrival time has proven this true again -- assuming the models hold.

rb924119 wrote:In my opinion, the key or keys, to this whole thing, actually lie in the eastern and northern Pacific. At work so I can't really do a full write up, but take notice of the drastic differences at H5 between the EURO and the GFS in these regions. The GFS depicts an important phase beneath the Alaskan ridge, which not only continues the look of a -EPO, but also develops an ideal Gulf of Alaska low. These allow the PNA region to spike at the perfect time and maintain a deep enough trough to capture Matthew. The EURO on the other hand, does not take part in the phase and allows the two shortwaves to remain distinct and separate entities. This prevents the -EPO and Gulf of Alaska low from developing, and maintains the progressive pattern. Which am I favoring? ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA. What am I worried about? Well, the EURO has been the most consistent with respect to its evolution and timing, although seemingly not so now. The GFS hasn't, for one, and secondly, we all know what the GFS likes to do in the colder times of the year-bombard the Eastern US with troughs and cold weather. Could this be part of the problem and reason why we are seeing the current solution come back? Possibly. Definitely? No. Moral to the story: Find a real short pier and take a nice long walk......

Florida gov declaring state of emergency watching his press conference on TWC

I asked JB's son why he likes the EURO. Here is his response:

Well contrary to what some have said, the Euro has so far been by far the best performing model for this storm...the numbers say it. But also told me just a bit ago if he sees the trough in the midwest trend stronger he can definitely see it come up past hatteras...But right now he likes the euro solution still...I think its plausible. not sure if i agree with him entirely

rb924119 wrote:In my opinion, the key or keys, to this whole thing, actually lie in the eastern and northern Pacific. At work so I can't really do a full write up, but take notice of the drastic differences at H5 between the EURO and the GFS in these regions. The GFS depicts an important phase beneath the Alaskan ridge, which not only continues the look of a -EPO, but also develops an ideal Gulf of Alaska low. These allow the PNA region to spike at the perfect time and maintain a deep enough trough to capture Matthew. The EURO on the other hand, does not take part in the phase and allows the two shortwaves to remain distinct and separate entities. This prevents the -EPO and Gulf of Alaska low from developing, and maintains the progressive pattern. Which am I favoring? ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA. What am I worried about? Well, the EURO has been the most consistent with respect to its evolution and timing, although seemingly not so now. The GFS hasn't, for one, and secondly, we all know what the GFS likes to do in the colder times of the year-bombard the Eastern US with troughs and cold weather. Could this be part of the problem and reason why we are seeing the current solution come back? Possibly. Definitely? No. Moral to the story: Find a real short pier and take a nice long walk......

Yup! I plan on trying to outline exactly what your saying with maps in the morning. Up through now there have been too many other hurdles. But it is now time to look to the west.

Approx. what day would this be hitting LI ?

Dis2cruise wrote:Approx. what day would this be hitting LI ?

IF he hits LI, a very big IF, it is likely to be late Saturday into Sunday. Or early Sunday into Monday. Timing is uncertain. Among many other things.

Check out this incredible satellite imagery of the Typhoon Chaba. I am not sure where he's tracking, but both sides of the globe are dealing with major cyclones!!!! Love this pic.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Dis2cruise wrote:Approx. what day would this be hitting LI ?

IF he hits LI, a very big IF, it is likely to be late Saturday into Sunday. Or early Sunday into Monday. Timing is uncertain. Among many other things.

Thanks so much heading to fire island this weekend.....maybe not ugh

Wow, 18z Hurricane models are in.



12z for comparison: