Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:19 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Nope nvm similar to 12z looks like our threat may b close to done but nor def. Curious what frank says at 7.

The fat lady is singing.

could just b another flip flop we will see.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Nope nvm similar to 12z looks like our threat may b close to done but nor def. Curious what frank says at 7.

Careful, its not over until the storm has passed and clearly wont or will impact the area. Still a couple days of runs yet.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:26 pm

True nj I just said could b another flip flop in models.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:35 pm

You're right though. We are closer and the chances and consensus are gaining that the impacts will be minimal if any here if current guidance is correct. Big emphasis on that if. In which case, that would make the EURO somehwhat right as well as JB and making this storm basically Joaquin part II and a big waste of time for our area as we get high pressure and sunny skies... feel a big headache coming on.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:44 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:You're right though. We are closer and the chances and consensus are gaining that the impacts will be minimal if any here if current guidance is correct. Big emphasis on that if. In which case, that would make the EURO somehwhat right as well as JB and making this storm basically Joaquin part II and a big waste of time for our area as we get high pressure and sunny skies... feel a big headache coming on.

me and mugs have been steadfast on get this bad boy up here so no giving up the models have fooled us 5 days ahead of time many times.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:You're right though. We are closer and the chances and consensus are gaining that the impacts will be minimal if any here if current guidance is correct. Big emphasis on that if. In which case, that would make the EURO somehwhat right as well as JB and making this storm basically Joaquin part II and a big waste of time for our area as we get high pressure and sunny skies... feel a big headache coming on.
me and mugs have been steadfast on get this bad boy up here so no giving up the models have fooled us 5 days ahead of time many times.

Count me in too guys. Every time the models have trended OTS and thinking it was over, lo and behold they came back west. I'm not giving up. I got a hunch that Matthew has a few tricks up its sleeve.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:37 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:You're right though. We are closer and the chances and consensus are gaining that the impacts will be minimal if any here if current guidance is correct. Big emphasis on that if. In which case, that would make the EURO somehwhat right as well as JB and making this storm basically Joaquin part II and a big waste of time for our area as we get high pressure and sunny skies... feel a big headache coming on.
me and mugs have been steadfast on get this bad boy up here so no giving up the models have fooled us 5 days ahead of time many times.
Count me in too guys. Every time the models have trended OTS and thinking it was over, lo and behold they came back west. I'm not giving up. I got a hunch that Matthew has a few tricks up its sleeve.

I hope something cool happens. Meanwhile my family in FL is freaking out, its been so long guess they forget what its like. Two in Vero Beach and two in Daytona. Gotta love Frank just like a mechanic, tells ya a update will be ready at 7 but in actuality its about 5 hrs later : ) totally kidding, but I am waiting to hear what you have to say about todays depressing runs.

And nutley, especially such powerful hurricanes often are harder to predict track than weaker ones. Yes Hermine was difficult but not like this. Not in the same way anyways. And I am seething to see what happens once he emerges in bahamas, i bet he explodes.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:48 pm

There are hwo talk bout matthew for jersey mt. Holly and mass. Upton I guess doesn't care lol. Always are the last to party.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:53 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:You're right though. We are closer and the chances and consensus are gaining that the impacts will be minimal if any here if current guidance is correct. Big emphasis on that if. In which case, that would make the EURO somehwhat right as well as JB and making this storm basically Joaquin part II and a big waste of time for our area as we get high pressure and sunny skies... feel a big headache coming on.
me and mugs have been steadfast on get this bad boy up here so no giving up the models have fooled us 5 days ahead of time many times.
Count me in too guys. Every time the models have trended OTS and thinking it was over, lo and behold they came back west. I'm not giving up. I got a hunch that Matthew has a few tricks up its sleeve.

Yep, we need some interesting weather around these parts for a change, NJ can be a drag sometimes...

"This prison will be the worst experience of your lives"....
"Beats Nutley on a Saturday night" -Futurama

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:54 pm

18z hwrf is very close and has direct impacts on cape cod.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:06 pm

Update

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t729-hurricane-matthew-update

by **billg315** Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:20 pm

At midday today forecasts were shifting the track west and projecting it impacting New Jersey. Now we're back in the other direction. I would say given the back and forth in the models and projections with this thing over the past three days, it would be premature to rule out any solution at this time. My default on tropical systems is that I generally assume they will go OTS or stay off the coast until I see compelling evidence, or model certainty to the contrary. Let's face it, New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic in general (thankfully) are just not prime targets from tropical systems. Has always been that way. When we are impacted significantly (Sandy, Irene, Floyd) it is the exception not the rule. So I won't be shocked at all to see this have little or no impact on us. Unfortunately if and when we ARE impacted we are particularly vulnerable because of the high population density and the development on our barrier islands, so we can never be cavalier about these things. Five days out, I wouldn't let down our guard completely just because of one round of model shifts.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:34 pm

I trust frank. I'd like to think things take a 180 but it's looking bleak. But yes it can change imo not anywhere near as likely as it was b4 and even then it wasn't that likely.

by Guest Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I trust frank. I'd like to think things take a 180 but it's looking bleak. But yes it can change imo not anywhere near as likely as it was b4 and even then it wasn't that likely.

10 days of tracking for no impacts would be one hell of a kick in the teeth and big waste of time. Hopefully we can at least get a few inches of rain out of this.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I trust frank. I'd like to think things take a 180 but it's looking bleak. But yes it can change imo not anywhere near as likely as it was b4 and even then it wasn't that likely.

10 days of tracking for no impacts would be one hell of a kick in the teeth and big waste of time. Hopefully we can at least get a few inches of rain out of this.

was waiting for your return!! you always have great comments hope you had a good trip..

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:59 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I trust frank. I'd like to think things take a 180 but it's looking bleak. But yes it can change imo not anywhere near as likely as it was b4 and even then it wasn't that likely.

10 days of tracking for no impacts would be one hell of a kick in the teeth and big waste of time. Hopefully we can at least get a few inches of rain out of this.

Wouldn't it follow suit with the normal chain of events? Lol. I really wonder what the ratio is of storms we obsess over that actually wallop us vs. the heartbreakers.

Nevertheless, we CAN'T HELP but get excited over the potenial. Believe me, my family would've put me in a psych ward long ago if that were possible!

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:00 pm

It wpuld b syo bit it's the way of the weenie I guess. It's not over till matthew is gone but forecast is not look in favor. But things can flip on a dime.

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:01 pm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:02 pm

aiannone wrote:

wow

Ew, way wide right

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:03 pm

aiannone wrote:

wow

the ensemble members have not been loaded on yet but I'm guessing most show not close.

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:05 pm

by **Sanchize06** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:08 pm

Had a bad feeling about this storm starting last night when the GFS was showing such a strong Atlantic ridge and progressive trough. Even though it was a hit, it wasn't a good sign. Typically 4 days out I would expect changes, but I really can't see that kind of ridge slowing down Matthew and forcing him west and a progressive flow allowing this to come north. WAR being over modeled is probably the only way, I guess we'll see.

by moleson Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:15 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
aiannone wrote:

wow

Ew, way wide right

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Opera-10

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:26 pm

aiannone wrote:

Wow, 1 comes fully up the coast, one runs to about benchmark, rest suppressed.... what a run to run inconsistency this storm has been.

by **billg315** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:28 pm

aiannone wrote:

wow

A tropical system brushes the southeast coast and heads out to sea way east of us. Sounds about right. lol.

by roccuweather Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:48 pm

Science--and Frank--are saying an OTS solution, which is usually a 100% lock for me. But I still don't trust models to stay consistent for five straight days, especially with the amount of change we've seen day to day. Logically, I don't see a NJ/NYC major impact happening, but I just can't buy that the models that have changed so much are not going to change from here on out.

by **hyde345** Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:59 pm

I think the only question is whether Matthew will make landfall in Florida or meander up the southeast coast and possible make landfall in Carolinas. Even if it does make it up to the Carolinas its becoming pretty apparent it then heads ENE and does not affect our area with any significant weather.

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